Search Results for: property
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What to expect from markets in the week ahead
Roger Montgomery
August 8, 2022
Domestic results season is about to ramp up and investors like us will be focusing, in particular, on the outlook statements. You might recall there was a lot of optimism at the time of the half yearly results in February. Back then, a combination of reopening, rebuilding and expectations of a continuation of accommodative monetary policy was met abruptly, in late February, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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More pain to come as the RBA lifts rates again
Roger Montgomery
August 4, 2022
Back in May, Montgomery CEO, David Buckland, said he saw New Zealand as Australia’s ‘canary in the coal mine’. As the Kiwis had raised rates earlier and more frequently than our Reserve Bank, their experience would be a good pointer to what we could expect. If he’s right, we now have the answer: big declines in consumer and business confidence, and falling property prices. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Property.
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Why mortgage stress could be worse than the RBA thinks
Roger Montgomery
July 28, 2022
The Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Michele Bullock, last week offered a cheerful, if not upbeat, interpretation of the circumstances faced by Australian mortgage holders, who are facing the brunt of the RBA’s interest rate rises. For Bullock, and presumably for the RBA, there’s no need to stress. I hope she’s right, but I fear things could get very difficult for a lot of borrowers. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Property.
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Chinese property woes point to more pain for our market
Andreas Lundberg
July 25, 2022
News about the Chinese construction sector keeps getting worse. That’s a major issue for our iron ore miners as Chinese property construction accounts for around one quarter of all seaborn iron ore demand. As our three biggest iron ore producers – BHP, Rio and Fortescue – make up a big chunk of the ASX200, I foresee darker days not just for these companies, but for the performance of the entire bourse. Continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Energy / Resources.
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What to expect from the stock market?
Roger Montgomery
June 23, 2022
In this week’s video insight Roger discusses what could be next for the stock market. We already know that P/E ratios have compressed considerably, and taken into account all of the increase in bond rates. What they haven’t done, of course, is priced a very significant recession, nor have they priced the possibility of a financial crisis of any description. But what happens if rates stop rising, and if economies don’t go into a recession, and we don’t get a financial crisis? Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Video Insights.
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A deep dive on the Aura High Yield SME Fund Part 1: A guide to SME lending
Dean Curnow
June 14, 2022
In May 2022 Montgomery announced a partnership with Aura Funds Management to offer their Australian credit strategies to Montgomery investors and interested parties. This is Montgomery’s first partnership outside of equities into credit and specifically private debt, which is a niche asset class getting a lot of attention for its consistent income and uncorrelated returns to those more traditional asset classes. Continue…
by Dean Curnow Posted in Aura Group.
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Price and Value are two different things – just ask Canva investors
Roger Montgomery
June 3, 2022
With the share prices of tech stocks having cratered in recent months, there are perhaps few more opportune times than now to revisit the important difference between Price and Value. It may surprise investors that every business has a real worth or a true value that may bear no resemblance to the currently traded price. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Investing Education.
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RBNZ – fifth tightening since October 2021: 0.25 per cent to 2.0 per cent
David Buckland
May 26, 2022
As I have detailed previously, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has been relatively pro-active in its tightening cycle, commencing on 6 October 2021 and taking their official cash rate from 0.25 per cent to 2.0 per cent. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Financial Services.
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The retailers that should weather the coming economic storm
Stuart Jackson
May 19, 2022
Conditions are about to get tougher for retailers as they face a perfect storm of falling incomes, galloping inflation, and rising interest rates. These impacts will crimp the discretionary spending power of many people. The one exception could be the under 25-year-old Gen Z demographic, who have fewer non-discretionary costs than other age groups. The retailers who sell to them could fare better than most. Continue…
by Stuart Jackson Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary.
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A bad policy proposal
Andreas Lundberg
May 18, 2022
It is closing in on the election date and we are seeing some stupid proposals coming as politicians are worried over getting re-elected/elected. The LNP’s proposal for first home buyers to access their superannuation balances for a deposit for their first home purchase is one I am highlighting. I consider this a thoroughly bad proposal from an overall society point of view for several reasons. Continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Property.
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New Zealand; The canary in the coal mine
David Buckland
May 16, 2022
I have been impressed by the relative proactive leadership of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) in commencing their official cash rate tightening cycle well ahead of most other countries. Commencing on 6 October 2021 (as well as 24 November 2021, 23 February 2022, and 13 April 2022), the RBNZ have increased their cash rate from 0.25 per cent to 1.50 per cent on four separate occasions. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics.
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Why every setback is accompanied by a different narrative
Roger Montgomery
May 16, 2022
In this week’s video insight Roger discusses why setbacks are a necessary part of investing, especially for those keen to realise better returns. Remembering that the lower the price you pay, the higher your returns, it makes sense that we should welcome market pullbacks. Eventually, there will be an end to rising interest rates and eventually, inflation will peak. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Video Insights.
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Australia’s residential property market to soften
David Buckland
May 10, 2022
It never ceases to amaze me that when a sector that has enjoyed a roaring bull market starts to turn the ‘experts’ try to out-do one another in giving pessimistic forecasts. And that is now happening with Australia’s residential property market, where the general consensus is that prices could soon drop by 15 to 25 per cent due to rising interest rates. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Editor's Pick, Property.
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Why Goodman Group remains sanguine about looming headwinds
Joseph Kim
May 10, 2022
The share price of Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) has plunged around 27 per cent since the start of the year as some investors began to price in headwinds for the commercial and industrial property business. Nick Vrondas, Group CFO, addressed these issues at the recent Macquarie Group investment conference, and explained why he is confident that growth remains on track. Continue…
by Joseph Kim Posted in Companies, Property, Stocks We Like.
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Rates go up; house go down
Roger Montgomery
May 6, 2022
As we predicted last November, Australian house prices have now topped out and begun their march lower. A quick visit to any of Australia’s holiday hotspots will reveal a testament to the sudden end of the most recent boom – a plethora of properties advertised for sale at the vaguest possible price known; ‘Contact Agent’. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Property.
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Taking advantage of the bears
Roger Montgomery
May 5, 2022
With market indices sliding, the bears are emerging from their hibernation to shout ‘I told you so’. Markets, especially equity markets, inevitably journey through periods of negative returns, so eventually, the bears must be correct. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Macquarie’s economic update part 1 – Inflation, war and COVID
Roger Montgomery
April 22, 2022
Recently, Macquarie Bank economists, Ric Deverell and Hayden Skilling, provided their much anticipated global economic update. It includes insights into how COVID and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are impacting supply chains, inflation and interest rate expectations. It also includes their somewhat bleak views on the outlook for property and equity markets. I’ve summarised the key take-outs in four blog posts. Here is the first one. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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What rising cash rates mean
David Buckland
April 14, 2022
Since October 2021, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has raised their cash rate on four separate occasions. On three occasions (6 October 2021, 24 November 2021, and 23 February 2022) the increase was by 0.25 per cent (to 1.0 per cent) and yesterday (13 April 2022) the increase was by 0.50 per cent (to 1.50 per cent). The last time the RBNZ moved their official cash rate by 0.5 per cent, was on 14 November 2001 – and the direction was downward to 4.75 per cent. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Hey Big Super – will there be more offers for Uniti Wireless?
Gary Rollo
April 5, 2022
There is an auction process (of sorts) happening for Uniti Wireless (ASX:UWL), and it appears contested with two interested parties emerging to date. Should there be more? Continue…
by Gary Rollo Posted in Companies, Stocks We Like.
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More Chinese property woes spell bad news for iron ore miners
Andreas Lundberg
March 29, 2022
Two recent news items on the problems besetting China’s Evergrande Group tell me that things are going from bad to worse for China’s second largest property developer. And Evergrande’s woes are not an isolated case – signs of distress are starting to emerge at other Chinese developers too. And that’s bad news for our iron ore miners, as property construction accounts for about 42 per cent of Chinese steel demand. Continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Global markets, Property.
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