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ARB’s financial year 2025 ( FY25) results reflect a challenging environment, with a four per cent profit before tax (PBT) miss driven by lower gross margins. The Thai Baht’s strength and lower factory recoveries (more on this below) squeezed margins, a trend exacerbated by ARB’s unhedged foreign exchange (FX) exposure. However, the company’s ability to offset this through cost control – particularly a leaner employee cost base – demonstrates operational resilience. The 50-cent special dividend, backed by a net cash position and significant property assets, highlights ARB’s financial strength and management’s confidence in future cash flows. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.

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In this week’s video insight, I unpack the leaked Treasury report warning the Albanese Government that Australia’s budget cannot be sustainably repaired without both raising taxes and cutting spending. The report also casts doubt on the government’s ambitious housing targets, with rising construction costs and surging demand making them increasingly unrealistic. Political support for a ‘Big Australia’ is compounding the strain on housing supply and intensifying the cost of living crisis. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Video Insights.

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In this episode of Over the Money Fence, I join Nicola and Di to explore the Three Bucket Strategy – a simple yet powerful way to take control of your finances with structure and confidence. Life can get busy and complicated, especially when juggling adult children and aging parents, life events like divorce, or inheritances can also complicate your finances. This strategy helps you stay grounded by dividing your money into three clear categories: cash for now, income for soon, and growth for later. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Podcast Channel.

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A recent article in the Wall Street Journal captivated me with its blend of betrayal, eccentric characters, the contrast between opulence and collapse, and the modern-day parable of a crypto catastrophe. In addition to its spellbinding narrative, it reminded me of my mother’s advice to make your friends before you make your money. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education.

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Parts of America’s industrial heartland are being transformed, and smokestacks and steel mills are being replaced by the scream of Graphic Proocessing Units (GPUs) housed inside concrete bunkers known as data centres. The transformation of parts of the U.S., such as Pennsylvania, is being mirrored globally as the world’s biggest tech names pour hundreds of billions into the physical infrastructure powering artificial intelligence. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary.

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Private credit is on the rise, capturing headlines and investor attention alike – but what’s driving the surge? In this conversation, I take us back to basics, cutting through the hype and fear to explain how private credit works, why it’s grown so rapidly, and what investors need to know to navigate the space wisely. From returns and risk to liquidity and diversification, this session dives into the real mechanics of this evolving asset class. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Popular, TV Appearances.

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Bitcoin recently hit another new all-time high just above US$124,000, reflecting a bull story that has matured from a niche tech narrative into a macro thesis with institutional support. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Foreign Currency.

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This week I explored the growing warning signs lurking beneath the market’s strong performance. From ballooning U.S. fiscal deficits and overexposure to a handful of mega-cap tech stocks, to sky-high artificial intelligence (AI) valuations that echo the dot-com era – there are clear signals that caution is warranted.

While the current market resilience is impressive, now is the time to focus on quality stocks and diversifying your portfolio. Exploring alternative asset classes like private credit – which remains uncorrelated to public markets – could help investors navigate what comes next.

Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Video Insights.

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I joined David Taylor on ABC The Business to discuss signs that the market might be entering bubble territory.  

Sharemarkets continue to climb, driven by fear of missing out (FOMO), expectations of interest rate cuts, and easing global tensions. But these same forces are also evidence that this boom could be shifting into the early stages of a bubble. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in TV Appearances.

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With the U.S. stock market hovering at levels some describe as ‘stretched’, economic indicators are flashing mixed signals, prompting some observers to raise the spectre of stagflation – a toxic brew of stagnant growth and persistent inflation. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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