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In an interview earlier this month, Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital  delivered his analysis of the global liquidity environment and its implications for financial markets. His message to investors was clear: liquidity, not interest rates or economic cycles, remains the true driver of asset performance – and right now, the liquidity tide is rising. But as always, tides reverse. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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For the last month or two, I have been writing with increasing frequency about the possibility of the stock market boom transitioning into a bubble. There are a variety of reasons for this, and they usually fall under two broad headings. The first is technical and the second is behavioural. Often the latter influences the former, but the reverse can also be true, so let’s agree that the sets in the Venn diagram intersect. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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In this week’s video insight, I thought I would break down an insightful article by Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital titled ‘Accord’: The Most Dangerous Word in Forex Markets. Howell highlights that we’re 33 months into a global liquidity upswing, but signs like rising bond yields and narrowing equity gains suggest we’re entering a late-stage cycle. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Video Insights.

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There’s some early evidence the equity boom is entering a bubble phase.

Bubbles can last and keep inflating for a long time. Missing out can be costly, but predicting the exact moment of a bubble’s demise is a waste of time. So, the right strategy isn’t prediction but rebalancing and a little tactical asset allocation. That way, you can remain invested and still outperform, if only relatively, even if markets pull back.

This article was first published in The Australian on 05 August 2025. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Market commentary.

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In this video, Fraser Heard, Head of Partners Private, shares his perspective on the growing role of private credit within client portfolios. He outlines why private credit is emerging as a core asset class in Australia, particularly as investors seek income and diversification away from traditional sources. Fraser discusses how Partners Private evaluates private credit opportunities, with a strong focus on manager quality, transparency, risk discipline, and the structural benefits the asset class can offer. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Popular, TV Appearances.

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In this week’s video insight, I explore whether we’re in the midst of a genuine market boom – or drifting into bubble territory. While strong earnings, high margins, and a pause in rate hikes have fuelled the rally, valuations are stretching well beyond historical norms. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Video Insights.

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Since the advent of the car, railroads or electricity, few technologies have captured investor imagination quite like generative artificial intelligence (GenAI).  

The debut of AI tools like ChatGPT has attracted billions in research and development (R&D) and related construction investment at the same time that share market investors have poured trillions into AI-related stocks, inflating valuations to levels that some suggest should make even the dot-com era blush.   Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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The Whyalla Steelworks was established in 1941 and employs 1,100 people. The Mount Isa copper smelter was established in 1953 and employs 550 people, and the Townsville refinery was established in 1959 and employs 500 people. Without enormous government subsidisation, all three businesses look like they will follow the Exxon Mobile refinery, Oceana Glass and plastics makers, Qenos and Trident, into oblivion. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Energy / Resources, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Property.

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In this episode of our monthly series Over The Money Fence, with Nicola and Di, we tackle the question; ‘What does smart investing look like at every age and stage of your life?’. The answer may not be as simple as you would expect. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Podcast Channel.

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At one point, back in 2022, the market cap of U.S. technology giant Meta (formerly Facebook) dropped as low as US$230 billion. The company and its investors had lost US$800 billion in market capitalisation in just one year, and the shares were down 75 per cent from their previous all-time high.

While the detailed reasons for the company’s significant decline are debatable – the broader market and its peers also fell significantly – the official reasons seem to be that the company experienced slowing growth in its daily active users and rising competition from TikTok.

This article was first published in The Australian on 16 July 2025. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press.

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