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Market state of play – and what to do
Roger Montgomery
August 25, 2026
Well into the penultimate quarter of the calendar year, institutional and private investors face the paradox that record infrastructure capital expenditure, particularly by AI hyperscalers, coexists with heightened geopolitical risk, sticky inflation, and an apparent structural shift to the relationship between equities and bonds.
And if institutions are changing their asset allocations to reflect these shifts, should private investors do the same? Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.
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A value investor’s framework for AI
Roger Montgomery
August 25, 2026
If you haven’t noticed already, allow me to point out that investment discussions about artificial intelligence (AI) frequently devolve into almost insulting debates between AI evangelists, who cite massive total addressable markets (TAM) and explosive user growth, and sceptics, pointing to trillions of dollars in capital expenditure (capex), a buildout based on speculation, exorbitant compute costs, and an unclear path to profitability.
Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern professor and widely respected value investor, believes this debate has largely gone off the rails, noting in a recent post, “The debate about AI, in my view, has gone off the track with advocates and sceptics often talking past each other”. Optimists cherry-pick usage metrics, while pessimists focus on heavy spending, with both sides ignoring the rigorous business analysis that needs to take place in the middle. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.
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MEDIA
Ausbiz – The playbook for a higher-inflation world
Roger Montgomery
October 1, 2026
I joined Andrew Geoghegan on Ausbiz to discuss persistent inflation in the U.S., the impact of rising wages and services costs, and why the Federal Reserve may have limited room to ease rates. We also explored the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure buildout, growing demand for capital and the pressure higher borrowing costs could place on hyperscalers, before discussing how private credit may fit within a higher-inflation environment. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.
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Targeting the Supermarkets
Roger Montgomery
September 4, 2026
With Woolworths and Coles reporting their 2026 results, it’s easy to make their billions in revenue and profits political targets. But does translating their nominal Financial Year 2026 (FY26) results into the terms of an Australian household’s economics reinforce the criticisms levelled at them?
To help answer this question, I ran a bit of a thought experiment. Follow on below to find out more.
Together, Woolworths and Coles Supermarkets generated about $95.3 billion of sales in FY26. Against Australia’s latest official population estimate of 27.8 million, that equates to roughly $3,430 per Australian per year, or $66 a week. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
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Sovereign debt yields continue to climb – is a debt crisis on the cards?
David Buckland
October 12, 2026
In the past six years, French Government ten-year bond yield has jumped from negative 0.3 per cent to 4.9 per cent, the highest level in 24 years. Investors are starting to differentiate between each euro-denominated country with German and Dutch ten-year bonds yielding 3.5 per cent and 3.6 per cent, respectively. Meanwhile, Greek and Italian ten-year bonds yield 4.55 per cent and 4.65 per cent, respectively, indicating potential contagion as confidence appears to be in short supply. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.
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The ingredients are in place for Aussie consumers to “rein it in”
David Buckland
August 20, 2026
As I have written many times, Australia’s Household Debt to Disposable Income Ratio has jumped more than fourfold to around 180 per cent over the past 50 years, making us one of the more indebted societies of the 38 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries.
Preeminent financial journalist of many decades, Robert Gottliebsen, recently argued a 10 per cent decline in house prices was the equivalent to around three 0.25 per cent interest rate increases for the average Australian consumer. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources.
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Overseas ownership continues at pace
David Buckland
August 19, 2026
In recent days, we have seen three ASX listed companies receive offers by private equity, and in each case, it appears their ownership will likely head overseas.
I Squared Capital
New York based “Sophisticated and long-term infrastructure investor”, I Squared Capital has bid $1.70 per share for oOh!media Limited (ASX: OML), thus valuing the company at over $1.0 billion in Enterprise Value (EV), including the $130 million of net debt as at June 2026. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
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The arithmetic of Victoria: The pothole state
Roger Montgomery
August 24, 2026
In public finance, there is a simple truth that ideologues spend years trying to evade: Eventually, the numbers catch up with you.
Back in the late 1980s and early 1990s, when I was studying at University in Melbourne, the economic mismanagement of the Kane and Kirner Labor governments reduced what was then called the Garden State to an economic basket case.
Decades later and Labor has done it again, hitting Victoria hard.
When Labor came to power there in 2014, the state’s debt was $21.8 billion. Today, it exceeds $160 billion and is rapidly approaching $200 billion, making Victoria one of Australia’s heaviest financial ball-and-chains. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.
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MEDIA
Ausbiz – The AI spending spree investors should fear
Roger Montgomery
September 3, 2026
On Ausbiz today, I discussed why the artificial intelligence (AI) boom may be reaching a crossroads. I looked at the enormous capital being deployed by hyperscalers, falling free cash flow and rising depreciation, and why growing competition and higher funding costs could make it increasingly difficult for these companies to generate sufficient returns on their AI investment.
Watch here: The AI spending spree investors should fearby Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications, TV Appearances.
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MEDIA
Ausbiz – The $40 trillion debt problem facing U.S. markets
Roger Montgomery
September 17, 2026
I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss rising U.S. bond yields and what higher interest rates could mean for markets. We also explored growing U.S. government debt, competition for capital from the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure boom, and the warning signs to watch across mortgages, highly leveraged companies and credit markets.
Watch here: The $40 trillion debt problem facing U.S. markets
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, TV Appearances.
What do U.S. rising interest rates mean for Australia? Find out here.
