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The recent relief rally in the S&P 500 is welcome, but is it sustainable? The stock market’s vulnerability is a weakness in Trump’s arsenal against China, and it’s also a barometer of his popularity. Meanwhile, the market and the U.S. economy are heavily reliant on consumer spending, with personal consumption expenditures accounting for approximately 70 per cent of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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On the surface, evidence shows that the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) may be at a crossroads. Companies like James Hardie are jumping ship for U.S. primary listings, Australian investors are piling into American stocks, and local unicorns like Canva might not even glance at the ASX for their big initial public offering (IPO) debut. It’s not a collapse – yet; remember, Guzman Y Gomez (ASX:GYG) chose Australia over a U.S. listing – but the cracks are starting to show. Is the ASX in trouble or just stuck in a tough spot? Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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The U.S. economy and stock market are teetering, according to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones. Together, they warn that aggressive tariffs and a cautious monetary policy result in the economy and market facing heightened inflation risks, unemployment, and a downturn. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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As an investor witnessing more than three decades of booms and busts, I find it increasingly difficult to separate investing from politics, especially when political figures have a harmful, toxic, and deleterious impact on investment performance. I am frequently told by those who disagree to stay in my lane and steer clear of politics, but under Trump, the two subjects are intertwined. I believe it’s impossible to peer into the future – where investment returns are produced – and ignore Trump’s impact, and therefore, his intentions. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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In this week’s video insight I discuss a new acronym coined by analysts that encapsulates a group of technology companies that are dominating global markets; MANGO (Meta, Apple, Nvidia, Google, and OpenAI).  

Investors have long used catchy terms to describe dominant technology stocks – think FAANG (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google), and Magnificent 7 (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Nvidia, and Tesla). Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Video Insights.

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Last month, the United States House of Representatives passed Donald Trump’s absurdly named “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” a 1,038-page legislative juggernaut championed to deliver on campaign promises including “a hodgepodge of controversial tax breaks for the wealthy, spending reductions and increased work requirements for food aid and Medicaid programs and huge funding increases for President Trump’s mass migrant removal program…”, according to The Hill News. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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In the final part of this series, I speak with June Lui, Portfolio Manager and Analyst from Polen Capital’s Emerging Markets Growth Team, to explore China’s dominance in artificial intelligence (AI), and innovative technologies.

We discuss how Polen Capital – our investment partner in global equities – evaluates whether new technology companies are capable of generating profitable growth. June shares insights on the excitement around AI developments, such as DeepSeek, and whether these companies will be able to compete with established technology giants. We also discuss the potential for opportunity in large and small language models. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Video Insights.

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Twenty years ago, U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders delivered a powerful explanation of a political tactic used to persuade voters to support policies that benefit the wealthy, often at the expense of their own interests. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Trumps massive deficit spending plan coincides with an unprecedented refinancing burden that could drain market liquidity. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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In a May 2025 letter to clients entitled ‘Brace for Impact’, Perpetual Asset Management Australia (ASX:PPT) echoed the cautionary sentiments of legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones, warning investors to “brace for impact” as markets fail to price in an economic slowdown already underway.

Their letter highlights a precarious optimism in U.S. equity markets, despite looming threats from trade wars, elevated valuations, and diminishing diversification from traditional safe havens like U.S. treasury bonds. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets.

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