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2025: Another bullish year ahead for equities?
Roger Montgomery
January 2, 2025
In this article for Firstlinks I discussed whether 2025 will be another bullish year for equities. Despite warnings of an imminent market correction, the rally in equities, particularly driven by the Magnificent Seven tech giants, persists, supported by positive economic growth and moderating inflation. While some indicators, like soaring valuations and speculative behavior, suggest caution, history shows that such conditions often don’t signal an impending crash. As long as disinflation and growth continue, there’s little reason to expect a sharp downturn. While speculative excesses are evident in certain sectors, the broader market remains robust, and 2025 could potentially see another strong year. However, future risks, including geopolitical tensions and global debt concerns, should not be ignored.
You can read the full article here: 2025: Another bullish year ahead for equities?
by Roger Montgomery Posted in On the Internet.
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Ausbiz – The “Euphoriameter”
Roger Montgomery
December 13, 2024
Yesterday, I appeared on ausbiz to share my thoughts on the current bull market, including the potential for a correction in January or a broader pullback next year. We discussed how disinflation and economic growth have historically supported innovative companies with pricing power. I also touched on sentiment indicators like the “euphoriameter”, highlighting that while these can signal extremes, the S&P 500 has historically continued to rally after past peaks. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in TV Appearances.
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Clear and present danger to sharemarkets posed by Republican presidencies
Roger Montgomery
November 25, 2024
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, In the Press.
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December ABC Nightlife – Finance
Roger Montgomery
December 19, 2024
This week, I had the pleasure of joining Phil Clarke on ABC Nightlife to reflect on the surprising performance of the share market in 2024 and to discuss my outlook for 2025. At the start of the year, many investors and advisers anticipated modest returns following a strong 2023. However, the market defied expectations, delivering even greater gains despite being described by some experts as a “melt-up.” During the episode, I shared insights into why I believe markets may not be as overvalued as they appear, along with what else is on the horizon.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.
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Fear + Greed: What does 2025 hold for investors?
Roger Montgomery
December 27, 2024
I had the opportunity to join Sean Aylmer on the Fear + Greed podcast to reflect on my predictions for 2024 and discuss what lies ahead in 2025. This year, despite widespread forecasts of a recession, the stock market performed strongly. A combination of disinflation and positive economic growth created a favourable environment for innovative companies with pricing power. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Podcast Channel.
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The bulls have been charging but how much energy do they have?
Roger Montgomery
December 30, 2024
As we know, the current sharemarket rally could pause or retreat on the back of a shift in sentiment in late 2025 or in 2026.
Massive demands on liquidity from the refinancing of about US$70 trillion of global debt taken up when interest rates were zero would leave less liquidity to sustain the rally in shares, bitcoin and everything else. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Market commentary.
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February 2025 reporting season calendar
Roger Montgomery
January 30, 2025
As February’s reporting season kicks off, investors are keenly focused on company profits as ASX-listed companies release their half-year financial results. During this time share price movements can be frequent, with some potential for noticeable fluctuations, particularly if results come in below expectations. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.
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Ausbiz – outlook for 2025
David Buckland
January 9, 2025
I appeared on Ausbiz to review 2024 and talk about the outlook for 2025. Will the Magnificent Seven tech stocks continue their upward climb in 2025? Rising U.S. bond yields could potentially impact some of the share price returns of tech stocks in the U.S. market. I also discussed the potential in Australian small caps due to their underperformance relative to large caps.
You can watch the full interview here: Ausbiz – outlook for 2025
by David Buckland Posted in TV Appearances.
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November ABC Nightlife – Finance
Roger Montgomery
November 28, 2024
Earlier this week, I joined Phil Clark on ABC Nightlife to discuss the latest in finance. We explored the rise of Bitcoin and crypto ETFs, including their increased accessibility and the potential implications of President-elect Donald Trump’s vision for the U.S. as a leading repository for Bitcoin. I also highlighted the drawbacks of relying on charting and technical analysis compared to dollar cost averaging. We also addressed the challenges of navigating financial advice in the era of “finfluencers,” and where to find reputable information. Lastly, I shared insights into Warren Buffett’s recent decisions and what these moves reveal about Berkshire Hathaway’s strategy, while answering some of your questions along the way.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.
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The cost of market timing
Roger Montgomery
December 11, 2024
In this week’s video insight, I discuss how the pandemic reshaped investor behaviour, leading to riskier trading and poor market timing, as highlighted by Derek Horstmeyer, a finance professor at George Mason University in the U.S. Many investors lost billions annually due to panic-driven decisions, emphasising the importance of a long-term approach. I discussed the importance of viewing markets as opportunities to invest in real businesses rather than speculating and underscored that long-term strategies outperform attempts at timing the market, as evidenced by the Montgomery Small Companies Fund’s returns over the last two years.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Small Caps, Video Insights.
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Immediately after Donald Trump’s election as the next president of the United States, market analysts began exploring historical correlations to assess potential implications for investors.