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On this episode of Over the Money Fence, I joined Nicola and Di to reflect on what really shaped markets in 2025, cutting through the noise around artificial intelligence (AI), technology stocks, gold, Bitcoin, inflation and interest rates. I shared my outlook for 2026, including the risks of an AI-led bubble, the growing role of alternative strategies like private credit, and why diversification and quality investing remain essential. We also tackled the most common listener questions and discussed simple, practical steps to help people head into the new year feeling clear, calm and confident. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Investing Education, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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In my latest article for Nabtrade, I explore why investors are rarely able to identify a bubble until after it has burst, and why the signals today suggest it may be prudent to prepare for a shift in 2026. Diversification and rebalancing is becoming increasingly important as market conditions become more turbulent. 

You can read the full article here: Bubbles create a shadow – time to move out from the shade. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in On the Internet.

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Recently, the BBC interviewed Sundar Pichai, the CEO of Alphabet, Google’s parent. With all the claims the artificial intelligence (AI) boom is a bubble – something I have noted cannot be known until after the event – I wonder whether the BBC was motivated to go to the source. 

Describing the surge in AI funding as a remarkable period, yet one marked by certain unrealistic expectations, Pichai warned viewers of BBC News that no business would escape unscathed if the AI boom collapses. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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From South Sea to AI: Artificial Intelligence (AI) companies seem to be asking investors the question: Just how long can growth be built on the question of future returns – and a productivity revolution – that are by no means guaranteed?

The South Sea Bubble of 1720 remains the archetype of a financial mania driven by exotic new ‘tech’, the promise of monopoly returns, and limitless public imagination.

At first, the idea of comparing the South Sea bubble to an AI boom 305 years later seemed far-fetched. AI is not, for example, a Ponzi scheme being promoted by those who fail or refuse to publish financials or forecasts of how profits will be made. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Another week, another artificial intelligence (AI) powered disruption. This time, two big announcements from China that may threaten the valuations of the big U.S. hardware-centric tech giants. 

The news

First, the release of AI-produced hyper-realistic movie-quality video from the Chinese company ByteDance-owned AI Seedance 2.0 has gone viral and simultaneously rocked Hollywood by completely reframing what the movie industry thought was possible. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Former CEO, public speaker and author, Jay Grewal once said, “When it comes to the final nail in your coffin, it doesn’t matter if it’s dull or sharp, it’ll still hold, because a lifetime of prior nails have helped seal that coffin shut.”

In what may prove to be merely another accumulated nail in the coffin of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, the narrative on Wall Street shifted dramatically last week as the tech-driven optimism that has fueled the market for years hit a psychological and structural barrier. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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As investors, if we’re intellectually honest, we’re bound to be wrong a few times more than we would like. And the longer the investment career, the higher the accumulated mistakes pile up. So how do successful investors survive them and continue to build on their success?

In holiday mode, I was re-reading some vintage Graham and Dodd, and what struck me was how minimal the damage from their mistakes would be, thanks to the safeguards built into their approach. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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It has struck me as curious that one of the sectors of the global market that was hit after the pandemic lockdowns were lifted but has generally failed to recover, is luxury retail. 

I have long believed that many prestige brands, such as Louis Vuitton, Gucci, Prada, and Ralph Lauren, are now so common on street corners and in shopping centres and malls that they verge on being more mass-market than exclusive, more masstige than prestige. One questions how much longer they can sustain their high margins if consumers become unwilling to pay ever-increasing prices for items that can be bought just about anywhere. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Global markets, Manufacturing, Market commentary.

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I joined Sean Aylmer for Fear and Greed’s Summer Series to discuss whether the powerful rally driven by artificial intelligence (AI) may now be approaching it’s peak. Drawing on lessons from past technology booms, I explained that although investors can correctly predict that a technology (in this case, AI) will change the course of humanity – it doesn’t automatically translate to great investment returns. The issue becomes apparent when a theme is perceived as structural, when in fact it is cyclical. We can see this in AI stocks where valuations have been inflated to a point that cannot be sustained. 

While no one can call the exact timing of an unwind, signs suggest the best part of the run for many AI-linked stocks may be behind us. For investors, perhaps they should consider rebalancing their portfolios after strong equity gains and spread capital more evenly across opportunities beyond the AI theme.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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This Christmas, perhaps more than any other in recent years, it might be time to spare a thought for Ernest Hemingway’s short story The Capital of the World. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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