Search Results for: bubble
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Will the ‘everything bubble’ pop this year?
Roger Montgomery
February 12, 2018
As a new year begins, market predictions are coming in thick and fast. Significantly, in recent days, the views of some of the giants in the industry are echoing those we hold and have shared with our readers. If we are right, then investors will need to be rather more nimble than usual this year. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Summer Series, Guest Editor, Gemma Dale
Roger Montgomery
January 22, 2018
In this article for Cuffelinks, Gemma Dale discusses an article written by Roger almost three years ago. Do stretched equity valuations have the potential to create a ‘phony asset bubble’? Read here.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in On the Internet.
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The Case For and Against Consumption Growth: Part 2
Stuart Jackson
January 16, 2018
Late last year, I discussed some of the main arguments underpinning a bearish outlook for the Australian consumer and, in turn, major bank loan book growth. But what about the counter argument? In particular, could the tightening labour market create stronger wage growth and thereby boost consumption? Continue…
by Stuart Jackson Posted in Market commentary.
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Is it too late to buy Bitcoin?
Roger Montgomery
December 19, 2017
Right now, you may be wondering: is Bitcoin a speculative bubble? And, if it’s not, is it too late to buy in? Well, the answer to that is: it depends. To my mind, the price of Bitcoin is going up because people think it will keep going up. And that’s pure speculation. But not everyone agrees. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Foreign Currency.
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Is Bitcoin a rational investment?
Tim Kelley
December 15, 2017
Bitcoin has enjoyed an extraordinary surge in both value and public attention recently. The chart below maps the rise in the price of a Bitcoin in USD over the last few years, and a similar chart could probably be plotted for the number of column inches, the number of internet searches and the number of experts confidently proclaiming it to be either a speculative bubble, or the gold of the future. Continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Editor's Pick, Foreign Currency.
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DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON SYDNEY PROPERTY PRICES
Roger Montgomery
November 10, 2017
It’s been a long time coming, but it seems the much-anticipated end to Sydney’s housing bubble has finally arrived. And, Australia-wide, there’s a growing list of areas with owners struggling to cope with mountains of debt. The question is, how far will property prices fall?
Continue…by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Property.
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After a strong year, can investors start to relax? Actually, no
Roger Montgomery
November 6, 2017
As global share markets head inexorably north, it’s easy to start feeling more relaxed. But my friend Jonathan Rochford offers a word of caution. In a recent note, he warns that a combination of high returns and low volatility could be setting up markets for a nasty pullback. And that’s not the only thing keeping him awake at night. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets.
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Online shopping giants inherit the questionable logic of logistics
Roger Montgomery
October 12, 2017
It’s time to ask whether the tyranny of distance becomes the achilles heel of the giant online shopping networks … or to put it another way, are logistics companies part of the online boom or part of its problem? Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary.
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Bubble trouble as online shopping giants inherit the questionable logic of logistics
Roger Montgomery
October 11, 2017
In this article published in The Australian Roger discusses logistics companies and questions if they are part of the online boom or part of its problem. Read here.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press.
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Red flags are everywhere, making us anxious about this market
Roger Montgomery
September 28, 2017
According to the Bank of International Settlements, there are now more margin loans supporting buying in the US stock market than during the tech boom of 1999/2000. And those loans are chasing an ever-narrowing band of tech stocks on the back of a ‘fear of missing out’. This is just one of the many red flags making us nervous right now. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Emerging Markets’ Bond Yields In A Massive Bubble
David Buckland
September 14, 2017
An interesting piece of research from Macquarie Equities came across my desk, illustrating the massive bubble we are living through. Despite the chequered history of many Emerging Economies, the spread on the yield on their sovereign bonds relative to US Bonds has come down from seven per cent to three per cent over the past three years.
by David Buckland Posted in Financial Services.
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Prepare to lose enormous [property] wealth: UBS and Harry Triguboff
Roger Montgomery
September 13, 2017
Earlier this week, The Australian – the newspaper I write for fortnightly – updated their reporting of Australian property mogul Harry Triguboff’s view on property prices.
Separately this week, UBS reported the results of a survey of almost 1000 Australian mortgage holders who borrowed in the twelve months to August 2017. They observed; “Our 2017 survey found factually accurate mortgage applications fell to just 67 per cent. There are now ~$500 billion in ‘Liar Loans’ on the banks’ books.” A third of borrowers admitted to understating their living expenses. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Property.
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Which companies could disappoint the market?
Roger Montgomery
July 31, 2017
As we’re on the cusp of reporting season, it’s a good time to look at the companies and market sectors that may soon be under pressure – in particular, those that could be affected by the record levels of debt held by Australian households. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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What will be of FY2018?
Roger Montgomery
July 25, 2017
With the 2018 financial year underway, it’s worth examining the forces that could determine whether the Australian stock market repeats its circa 13% return of 2017. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Is negative gearing good for Australia?
Andreas Lundberg
July 12, 2017
The negative gearing debate continues to heat up. And well it might. It’s a classic argument between the ‘haves’ and the ‘have nots’, focusing on one of the things we hold most dear: affordable housing. If we take a dispassionate view, it’s not hard to see which side of the debate has more merit. Continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Property.
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If the bears are right
Roger Montgomery
July 11, 2017
If the bears are right, an Australian property bubble, a recession for retailers and dramatically slowing Chinese growth rates towards the end of the year, combined with record high asset prices — especially assets that produce no income such as art and two-digit licence plates — are a recipe for a meltdown. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Property.
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The higher the price you pay, the lower your returns
Roger Montgomery
July 3, 2017
The higher the price you pay, the lower your returns. This is a fundamental truth of investing, a law, like gravity, and an impost that cannot be escaped. And yet it is always the case that when future returns are the least attractive, enthusiasm for assets is highest. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary.
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Consumer wealth effect – Another nail in the coffin for retail spending.
Andreas Lundberg
June 19, 2017
Consumer spending has risen strongly in the past year, spurred on by property owners feeling richer due to higher house prices. This is called the household wealth effect. But with house prices looking toppy, should retailers – and investors – be concerned about the effects of a property market correction? Continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Consumer discretionary, Property.
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How China’s debt bubble could hurt Australia
David Buckland
June 7, 2017
Willem Buiter is the highly respected Chief Economist at Citigroup, and when he speaks, people tend to listen. Last week, in an interview with the ABC, Buiter sounded a strong warning about China’s debt bubble, and the ramifications for Australia. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.
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In short, value is difficult to find
Roger Montgomery
June 5, 2017
Asset prices across all investment classes are at record highs, including and perhaps especially assets that produce no income. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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