Search Results for: bubble
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The quality quotient in long-term alpha
Polen Capital
December 2, 2021
Investors are generally taught that highly concentrated portfolios mean taking on more risk, but that may not always be the case. In Polen Capital’s experience, the perceived risk of holding a concentrated portfolio can be offset by owning high-quality investments. By owning a concentrated portfolio containing only the highest quality companies, investors can potentially take meaningfully less risk than the market while generating greater long-term performance. Continue…
by Polen Capital Posted in Polen Capital.
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The 3 words that tell me this property boom is over for now
Roger Montgomery
November 24, 2021
The key driver for the short and medium-term direction of the Australian property market can be boiled down to just three words: access to credit. And, right now, the conditions for credit access are getting tighter. To my mind, it all points to a property market that is about to lose its froth. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Property.
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Timely reminder of investing insights from Howard Marks – Oaktree
Scott Phillips
October 19, 2021
I was fortunate to recently hear from the legendary investor Howard Marks, one of the co-founders of Oaktree Capital* who gave the opening keynote address at the annual CFA Societies Australia Conference. Listening to his presentation was informative as always and I thought I’d share with everyone some of his key takeaways relating to today’s investing environment and ultimately successful investing. His presentation was titled” “Value Investing: A New Look.” Continue…
by Scott Phillips Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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Four reasons why rates will stay lower for longer
Roger Montgomery
September 22, 2021
A September research note by Macquarie Bank supports what we’ve been thinking for a while: that interest rates are set to stay low well into the future. And if we are correct, it means this market – toppy as it seems – has further to run. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Lockdowns help steer auto businesses to a bumper year
Roger Montgomery
September 6, 2021
FY21 was a great year for companies in the automotive industry. With overseas travel ruled out, we took to the roads. And recent results announcements from Motorcycle Holdings and Apollo Tourism & Leisure indicate that the good times could continue into 2022, even though Peter Warren Automotive is less optimistic. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.
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Six companies that have caught my eye in reporting season
Roger Montgomery
August 23, 2021
The COVID-19 pandemic, and associated lockdowns, have impacted some businesses very positively, but been less kind on others. These impacts are coming to light in the current FY21 reporting season. Here, I’d like to highlight the results of six companies I’ve been following for a while. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick.
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Where to invest in the battery metals boom
Roger Montgomery
July 19, 2021
With the global electric vehicle (EV) market forecast to grow 10-fold by 2025 and 50-fold by 2030, and rising demand for energy storage, there’s never been a better time to be a lithium miner. Fortunately, Australia has a number of quality mining businesses for investors to consider. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources.
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What can we learn from the investing themes of FY21?
Joseph Kim
July 16, 2021
July is a natural time for us to review the financial year just past – both in terms of The Montgomery Fund as well as the investment journey of the broader market. The 2021 financial year was unprecedented in many ways, not just because the last 12 months has seemed more like an extension of the initial COVID-19 fallout of the June 2020 quarter, but also because of the volatility witnessed in the broader market given the rapid pace of developments in a suddenly “less predictable” world. Continue…
by Joseph Kim Posted in Market commentary.
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Ausbiz: Value vs. growth: Two sides of the same coin with Equity Mates
Roger Montgomery
May 27, 2021
Roger joined Alec Renehan and Bryce Leske on AusbizTV to discuss current markets. Are we in a stockmarket bubble? I don’t think so. Current and intermittent weakness in the share prices of high-quality companies with bright long-term growth prospects should be seen as a classic opportunity where stocks have become mispriced.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, TV Appearances.
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Why we sold out of Redbubble
Joseph Kim
May 24, 2021
Most articles we read are about hot stock tips to buy. Occasionally there are articles about “shorting” opportunities, albeit most are directed to sophisticated investors given the risks around shorting (i.e. a potential loss that exceeds your initial investment). Very few articles talk about when to sell. Continue…
by Joseph Kim Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary.
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For the Australian economy, it’s full steam ahead!
Roger Montgomery
May 4, 2021
Compared to most other major economies, Australia is now in a sweet spot. After breezing through the COVID-19 pandemic, economic growth is above expectations, unemployment is low, and the outlook for business is incredibly positive. If you add low rates and ongoing government support to the mix, it all adds up to a rosy near-term outlook. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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What Telstra’s proposed restructure means for shareholders
Roger Montgomery
March 26, 2021
If you’re a shareholder in Telstra (ASX:TLS), some good news could be on the horizon courtesy of the company’s proposal to restructure its business. The restructure would split TLS into four distinct subsidiaries, and promises to boost the value of the company’s diverse infrastructure assets. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Stocks We Like, Technology & Telecommunications.
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Why I think house prices will keep going up
Roger Montgomery
March 18, 2021
Australia is in the grip of its biggest property price boom in more than a decade. The boom is motivated in no small part by a fear of missing out. But there are also other important factors at play, leading me to believe that this trend could continue for some time. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Property.
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Why I don’t think we’re headed for a correction
Roger Montgomery
February 9, 2021
Over the last few months, increased risk-taking by investors has led to ballooning prices for loss-making businesses, IPOs in unprofitable firms, and speculative ‘assets’ like cryptocurrency. This is usually a signal that the market is too hot, and is due for a correction. Is the market at risk of an imminent collapse? Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Bubble, bubble toil and no trouble!
Roger Montgomery
February 3, 2021
There are a number of arguments being advanced to suggest the stock market is in a gigantic bubble that is at risk of bursting imminently. Some of the arguments relate to broad overvaluation, the tidal wave of overpriced IPOs that double on listing, and the observation that interest rates remaining low forever is tantamount to the unrealistic, and previously unrealised, expectation of high rates of earnings growth being sustained forever. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Farewell 2020, Hello 2021
David Buckland
January 4, 2021
Sunday, 8 March 2020, was not only International Women’s Day, but the ICC Women’s World T20 Cricket final, played between Australia and India at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, attended by over 86,000 spectators. (Australia won by 85 runs). Ten months later, over 85 million people globally have been infected and 1.85 million people have passed-away from COVID-19. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.
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Don’t poke the China bear
David Buckland
December 16, 2020
The Reserve Bank of Australia is taking us down the Japanese and European path, obsessed with record low interest rates whilst spending little time on productivity growth. Following “emergency low interest rates” of 3.0 per cent during the Global Financial Crisis, the current 0.1 per cent cash rate is causing havoc amongst the retired generation, which number 4 million people or 15 per cent of our population. This generation unfortunately face Hobsons choice of going up the risk curve, often speculating on risk assets, or eating into their capital. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Global markets.
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A review of markets in 2020
Joseph Kim
December 15, 2020
With 2020 almost now behind us, I thought it was worthwhile looking at the year that was. It’s safe to say this year is unlikely to be forgotten for everyone, and not just those invested in equity markets. After a very strong January, investors and markets grappled with the uncertainty and severe volatility brought upon by COVID-19’s spread around the world. Continue…
by Joseph Kim Posted in Market commentary.
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Turn over these stones in 2021
Roger Montgomery
December 14, 2020
While 2020 will always be remembered for the global lockdowns associated with COVID-19, many will also remember it was the year the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy acquiesced to the big momentum of Modern Monetary Theory. It was the year the RBA embraced an assortment of avant-garde actions in a continuation of the measures adopted by its contemporaries, since the GFC, in most other jurisdictions. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Why our soaring market still looks ok to me
Roger Montgomery
December 3, 2020
Are share markets cheap or expensive right now? Well, it depends who you ask. And there are plenty of people happy to offer their opinion. But at the risk of adding to this largely irrelevant discussion (after all, we buy shares in companies, not ‘the market’) here’s my take. Please feel free to comment – I’d love to read your views as well. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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