Search Results for: bubble
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Ausbiz: AI – a bubble or the real deal?
Roger Montgomery
June 16, 2023
I joined Ausbiz to discuss artificial intelligence (AI) and why investors should take a step back and consider how companies will monetise AI to create a real secular trend. Will we see a bubble if revenue fails to materialise? Watch here: AI – a bubble or the real deal?
by Roger Montgomery Posted in TV Appearances.
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Some analysts are forecasting big gains for Gold and Bitcoin
Roger Montgomery
June 13, 2023
A theory doing the rounds is that we’ve entered a new epoch where central banks will have no option but to create monetary inflation to fund structural fiscal deficits. To be clear monetary inflation is not the same as consumer price inflation. Monetary inflation is brought about through central bank balance sheet expansion or quantitative easing. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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AI stocks: have you missed the buying boom?
Roger Montgomery
June 2, 2023
I joined Ausbiz to share my view on generative AI’s transformative potential and investment landscape, giving particular attention to Nvidia’s (NVDA) recent success. New technologies that transform life typically lead to bubbles; however, these new technologies will change the world. Watch the interview: AI stocks: have you missed the buying boom?
by Roger Montgomery Posted in On the Internet, TV Appearances.
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ABC The Business: Afterpay and Zip could face tougher future under new laws
Roger Montgomery
May 23, 2023
I joined ABC’s The Business to discuss Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) businesses including AfterPay and Zip. We always thought these companies were mediocre – they were over-valued, with unsustainable growth and increasing competition.
Way back in 2018 I warned investors about the BNPL space and continued to do so in 2019, and 2020, questioning how long the euphoria would last. Fast forward to today, BNPL providers are facing a raft of new regulations. Is their future now even more concerning?
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, TV Appearances.
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Australia – the outlier with a highly levered consumer
David Buckland
March 27, 2023
Early in 2022, the official cash rates for most English-speaking developed economies were at or around zero. This historical low too often pushed many investors, for fear of missing out, into speculating on things they may now have preferred to avoid. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.
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What does the U.S. yield curve tell us about recessions?
Roger Montgomery
March 16, 2023
Today, the vast majority of the U.S. yield curve is negatively sloped. Every time this has happened in the past, a recession soon followed. This is no doubt troubling for those adversely affected. But, as an investor, I am not unduly concerned – any market turmoil could present opportunities to invest in quality businesses at bargain prices. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets.
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If you are an income investor, it pays to think long-term
Roger Montgomery
February 22, 2023
The past year has seen a distinct switch in investor focus from growth to yield. The irony, of course, is that many so-called ‘dividend stocks’ can be long-term wealth killers. And that’s why we prefer quality businesses – like CSL – which can grow both their market value, and their dividends, over time. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Investing Education.
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The silver lining in higher rates
Roger Montgomery
February 21, 2023
Financial media is replete with stories observing the fastest increase in interest rates in recent memory, the end of the declining interest rate era, how the fastest rise in short-term rates is inverting the yield curve (2-year bond yields higher than 10-year bonds) and predicting a recession, rising rates are causing the property market to collapse, and how causal inflation is responsible for it all and the financial destruction of many peoples’ lives. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group.
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Why I don’t think this is a dead cat bounce
Roger Montgomery
February 20, 2023
With equity markets steaming ahead, there’s no shortage of people calling this a ‘dead cat bounce’ and, by implication, predicting another market correction. History, however, suggests that 2022 was simply an isolated poor year for markets, and that we have now returned to ‘normal programming’. If I’m right, then 2023 could be a good year for investors. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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What is next for small caps?
Polen Capital
February 17, 2023
The past year posed considerable challenges for equity investors, including runaway inflation, a rising interest rate environment, geopolitical tensions, and the lingering effects of the pandemic. The confluence of these headwinds – and a lack of positive catalysts – roiled market sentiment, resulting in most equity analysts adjusting their expectations for corporate earnings growth substantially lower. Continue…
by Polen Capital Posted in Editor's Pick, Polen Capital.
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Why I’m cautiously optimistic about 2023
Roger Montgomery
February 6, 2023
A number of commentators are calling the current rebound in global markets a ‘dead cat bounce’. Veteran fund manager, and famous ‘perma-bear’, Jeremy Grantham, has even warned that stocks could plunge a ‘stomach-churning 50 per cent’ from here. But I’m not so sure. I think there are plenty of reasons to be cautiously optimistic about the year ahead. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Think like a bargain hunter
David Buckland
December 22, 2022
In his latest memo, Oaktree’s Howard Marks wrote “In my 53 years in the investment world, I’ve seen a number of economic cycles, pendulum swings, manias and panics, bubbles and crashes, but I remember only two sea changes. I think we may be in the midst of a third one today.” Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Focus on inflation if you want to profit from market volatility
Roger Montgomery
September 28, 2022
Global markets are clearly spooked by the U.S. Federal Reserve pushing up interest rates in order to rein in inflation. But fear not. Because inflation is always followed by disinflation. And research shows that shares do very well in a disinflationary environment. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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The retailers that should weather the coming economic storm
Stuart Jackson
May 19, 2022
Conditions are about to get tougher for retailers as they face a perfect storm of falling incomes, galloping inflation, and rising interest rates. These impacts will crimp the discretionary spending power of many people. The one exception could be the under 25-year-old Gen Z demographic, who have fewer non-discretionary costs than other age groups. The retailers who sell to them could fare better than most. Continue…
by Stuart Jackson Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary.
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Taking advantage of the bears
Roger Montgomery
May 5, 2022
With market indices sliding, the bears are emerging from their hibernation to shout ‘I told you so’. Markets, especially equity markets, inevitably journey through periods of negative returns, so eventually, the bears must be correct. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Take heed of these four key risks, warns JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon
Stuart Jackson
April 10, 2022
Jamie Dimon is chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase – the world’s largest bank by market capitalisation – and has been included four times in Time magazine’s list of the world’s 100 most influential people. So his annual letter, released as part of the bank’s latest annual report, is worth reading. In it, Dimon points to four key risks facing all investors. Here is an overview of his letter. Continue…
by Stuart Jackson Posted in Market commentary.
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Why it’s time to capitalize on the carnage in tech stocks
Roger Montgomery
February 9, 2022
The current equity correction has taken a lot of the froth out of the market. But caught up in the carnage have been a number of high quality companies with years of growth ahead. Which is why I think this could be a very good time for investors to take a look at some of these businesses, including Pro Medicus, Megaport and REA Group. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Stocks We Like.
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Why I think 2022 will be a very good year for investors
Roger Montgomery
January 5, 2022
A year ago, I wrote an article in The Australian which set out the factors I thought would make it a very good year for equities. So far, the local market has behaved as expected – despite all the turmoil in the world – with the All Ordinaries up 13.6 per cent for the 12 months to 31 December 2021. Looking ahead, I think markets will continue to reward investors, particularly those who invest in quality businesses. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary.
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Montgomery wishes you a Merry Christmas
Roger Montgomery
December 22, 2021
It is difficult to believe we have now been navigating a COVID-infected world for almost two years. Two years of uncertainty and tumult tests everyone’s resolve and resilience. And as we approach Christmas, Omicron represents another variant again throwing a spanner in the works of everyone’s holiday plans. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Montgomery News and Updates.
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Has the BNPL bubble finally burst?
Roger Montgomery
December 8, 2021
If you’re a long-term holder of Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) stocks, right now, we are witnessing the decline of this over-inflated sector. It highlights, yet again, the importance of focusing on quality businesses, rather than chasing the latest fad stocks. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick.
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