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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss how the rise of passive investing is changing the sharemarket, with index funds increasingly pushing money into the biggest companies regardless of valuation. Using SpaceX as an example, we explored how speculative companies can attract enormous valuations during periods of market optimism, and why that may not last forever. We also looked at what this means for Australians, many of whom may have exposure to these trends through their superannuation.

Tune in from 1:45:22 on ABC Statewide Drive continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio.

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I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss how the rise of passive investing is reshaping markets. With ETFs and index funds now dominating trading, quality-focused active managers are struggling as money flows into the biggest index constituents regardless of valuation or fundamentals. While this trend may continue for some time, market cycles eventually turn, and when they do, companies with strong fundamentals, high-quality balance sheets and durable cash flows are likely to come back into favour.

Watch the episode here: The “profitless rally” Roger thinks could end badly continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.

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• POSTED IN Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances

In my latest article for The Australian, I argue that the S&P 500 is no longer the diversified benchmark many investors believe it to be. With an increasing share of the index now driven by the artificial intelligence (AI) theme, concentration risk is at extreme levels. History suggests these periods don’t last forever, making quality companies and genuine diversification worth a closer look.

Download the article here: AI boom turns S&P 500 into a dangerous bet

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, In the Press, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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• POSTED IN Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, In the Press, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation

I joined Kylie Morris on ABC Newcastle Mornings to discuss the impact of Labor’s changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax (CGT) on the housing market. We looked at why first home buyers may be finding it harder to enter the market, the effect of tighter lending rules, and how changes to self-managed superannuation borrowing could affect housing supply.

We also touched on ASIC’s record civil penalties over the past financial year and why it’s important that companies engaging in misconduct are held accountable.

Tune in from 35:50 on ABC Newcastle Mornings continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Radio.

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• POSTED IN Economics, Radio

I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss the ASX debut of FDC Consolidated (ASX), outlining why I believe the construction and fit-out business presents a compelling investment opportunity. I highlighted its 36-year track record, strong insider ownership, large work in progress, repeat client base and attractive forecast yield, while noting that quality businesses can still attract investor demand despite a subdued Initial Public Offering (IPO) market. We also discussed Australia’s fragile consumer confidence, with high household debt, rising rents and ongoing cost-of-living pressures continuing to weigh on sentiment, even as confidence gradually recovers from its 53-year low.

Watch here: FDC’s ASX debut – a builder with bite  continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Small Caps, Stocks We Like, TV Appearances.

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• POSTED IN Companies, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Small Caps, Stocks We Like, TV Appearances

In my latest article for The Australian, I examine how investor attention has been almost completely hijacked by artificial intelligence (AI), leaving gold largely overlooked despite many of the conditions that have historically supported it. In theory, an era of mounting sovereign debt, structural inflation and geopolitical uncertainty should favour gold. If today’s AI enthusiasm eventually gives way to a market correction, investors may find themselves giving gold a second look… 

Download the article here: Don’t write off gold’s polish – it could save you from an AI crash continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, In the Press, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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• POSTED IN Economics, Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, In the Press, Investing Education, Market commentary

This week I am back with Over The Money Fence with Nicola Dale and Di Edwards.

This series aims to help you take control of your finances with clarity and confidence. In this episode, we go through the biggest bombshells from this year’s budget and what the practical implications are for you and your money. I explain why the changes to the budget don’t actually benefit young Australians, and therefore positioning it in this way is simply untrue. 

We talk about the hype around SpaceX being publicly listed, overtaking Amazon in market value, and I share my thoughts on whether the hype is real or if this company has been overvalued. 

We also discuss private credit funds and why they can be a good investment option for people that want good returns without the volatility of the share market.

I loved having this conversation with Nicola and Di in the studio, helping to make them and our listeners feel more calm and confident about their financial decisions. We hope you enjoy this episode as much as we did. 

Tune into past episodes of Over the Money Fence here. 

For further information, please contact David Buckland, Chief Executive Officer or Rhodri Taylor, Account Manager on (02) 8046 5000 or investor@montinvest.com. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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I joined Nadine Blayney on Ausbiz today to discuss why I remain cautious on the artificial intelligence (AI) investment theme, despite strong earnings from the major technology companies. While reported profits continue to rise, I argued that much of the spending on AI infrastructure is being treated as capital expenditure rather than an expense, making earnings appear stronger than underlying cash flows. I also suggested that today’s relatively modest price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios may not tell the full story, noting that markets can still suffer significant declines even from low valuations if earnings prove unsustainable. Ultimately, I believe the key risk is not that AI share prices are too high, but that investor expectations for future earnings may be too optimistic.

Tune in via Ausbiz here: The reason Roger reckons AI is a “bubble” continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Technology & Telecommunications, TV Appearances.

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• POSTED IN Technology & Telecommunications, TV Appearances

I recently joined ABC Newcastle Mornings with Kylie Morris to discuss why households may benefit from reviewing their spending habits, including a simple exercise of separating expenses into “wants” and “needs” to identify potential savings and build a financial buffer.

We also explored how interest rates can act like gravity on asset prices, with higher rates reducing the present value of future cash flows – potentially weighing on shares and other investments.

Finally, we touched on the implications of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom for investors and superannuation (with specific reference to the recent SpaceX IPO), including concerns around supply chain fragility, resource consumption and the growing integration of AI into critical systems.

Tune in from 37:30 here: ABC Newcastle Mornings continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary, Economics, Investing Education, Market commentary, Radio.

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In my latest article for The Australian, I argue that the extraordinary enthusiasm surrounding SpaceX’s Initial Public Offering (IPO) may be a warning sign that markets are entering a late-stage speculative phase. Drawing parallels with major thematic IPOs that preceded previous market peaks, I examine how Fear of Missing Out (FOMO), passive investment flows, Artificial Intelligence (AI)-driven optimism and a growing disconnect between valuations and fundamentals are creating conditions that resemble past market bubbles. The key question for investors is whether today’s market is being driven by sustainable earnings growth or by speculation that could ultimately prove unsustainable.

Download the article here: Gravity-defying SpaceX IPO flags warning of market crash landing

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, In the Press, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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