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In today’s interview with Sean Aylmer on the Fear & Greed podcast, I discussed the recent Australian share market downturn, driven by U.S. market fears and artificial intelligence (AI) monetisation challenges impacting tech stocks. Notably, there has been a rotation from big tech stocks to small caps, with the Nasdaq down about 9 per cent over the last month, while small cap indices, the S&P 600 and the Russell 2000 have risen by 4-5 per cent. This shift suggests that small caps are faring better amid the AI-driven sell-off. I also shared my market predictions for the upcoming days.  continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Podcast Channel.

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In my recent article for Firstlinks, I explore the rising concerns about a potential market correction. Since 2022, I’ve been optimistic about stocks rising despite recession fears and increasing interest rates, based on expectations of positive economic growth and disinflation. Disinflation has historically benefited innovative companies with pricing power. However, investors like Ruffer LLP and Mark Spitznagel now warn of a severe market crash due to shrinking U.S. liquidity. While their warnings merit attention, I believe that positive growth and slowing inflation will continue to support innovative growth companies. Read the full article here for my full insights: What to do about the growing chorus of market correction warnings? continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, On the Internet.

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Last week, I had the pleasure of participating in the InvestmentMarkets July webinar series. I joined Angelina Wu to provide an overview of the current investment markets, highlighting key trends and economic indicators. I discuss the opportunities in small cap investments, both domestically and globally, and offer a recap of private credit and the potential benefits it holds for investors.

You can watch the full webinar recording here: continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Talks.

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In yesterday’s interview on ausbiz, I discussed the growing influence of music streaming services, particularly highlighting Spotify’s (NYSE:SPOT) leading position in the market. We delved into how Spotify’s ad-free, premium offerings have bolstered its appeal, leading to a substantial increase in both market share and subscriber base, despite rising prices. I also emphasised the importance of return on equity (ROE) as a critical metric for investors, demonstrating how companies like Spotify and REA Group (ASX:REA) leverage their ability to charge premium prices to sustain strong competitive advantages. These insights provide a valuable perspective for understanding the dynamics that drive stock performance and market leadership in today’s digital economy. 

You can watch the full interview here: Ausbiz – Spotify soars like a Swift hit!

by Roger Montgomery Posted in TV Appearances.

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In my interview on ABC Statewide Drive with Jess Mcguire yesterday, we discussed the recent interest rate cuts in Sweden, Canada, and Europe, with New Zealand potentially following suit in the coming months as the economy slows. Consumer sentiment is also shifting, with a noticeable focus on essentials, as companies like Kathmandu (ASX:KMD), Cettire (ASX:CTT), and Nike (NYSE:NKE) project lower sales for the June to August period due to decreased discretionary spending. Additionally, we touched on the significant influence of artificial intelligence (AI) on the impressive performance of the Magnificent 7 stocks last year and this calendar year. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Radio.

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In this morning’s interview on Ausbiz, I discussed key market trends in anticipation of the upcoming U.S. and Australian reporting seasons. I highlighted the importance of the impending reporting season to support the current market momentum, emphasising the need to closely observe outlook statements and key sectors, such as consumer discretionary companies like JB Hi-Fi (ASX: JBH) and Premier Investments (ASX: PMV). I also addressed the pressures on Australian banks, including Commonwealth Bank (ASX:CBA), noting their significant contributions to market performance but also their current high valuations and need for earnings growth. Lastly, I touched on the resource sector, particularly lithium stocks, and the importance of upcoming production reports in shaping future market directions. continue…

by Sean Sequeira Posted in Editor's Pick, TV Appearances.

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In this week’s interview with Paul Turton on ABC Newcastle radio, we discussed the disconnect between the share market and the broader economy, noting reasonable retailer profits despite rising living costs and declining discretionary spending. We covered the interest rates and the prevalence of variable home loans in Australia. The economy is slowing, with unemployment at a two-year high and discretionary spending low, yet sentiment for technology and artificial intelligence (AI) remains positive, with indexes at all-time highs. We also touched on how super funds might not fully benefit from the share market boom, even as industry super funds grow larger.   continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Radio.

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In last week’s interview with Jess McGuire on ABC’s NSW Drive, I discussed the current developments affecting our economic outlook. We delved into the recent rise in the inflation rate from 3.6 per cent to 4 per cent, prompting central banks to reconsider the timing of interest rate cuts, now likely delayed until late this year or early next. Additionally, I highlighted how iron ore exports to China are bolstering both our economies, reflecting on the broader implications for Australian trade partnerships. We also examined the downturn in discretionary spending, which is impacting retail and media sectors, with a notable decrease in share prices. 

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by David Buckland Posted in Radio.

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In my recent interview with Ausbiz, I discussed the significant impact of rising inflation on renters and mortgage owners, leading to reduced discretionary spending. I provided insights into the macro landscape, noting inflation has risen to 4% and the employee living cost index is at 6.5%. Many retail businesses, such as Cettire (ASX: CTT) and Baby Bunting (ASX: BBN), are experiencing profit declines and multi-year lows in shares. The advertising sector also seems to be struggling as many businesses, including Seven West (ASX: SWM) and Nine Network (ASX:NEC), are also hitting multi-year lows.
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by David Buckland Posted in TV Appearances.

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I had the pleasure of joining Chris Batchelor to present a webinar hosted by Stockopedia as part of their Investing Mastermind series. We delved into unlocking the secrets of stock selection and identifying high-quality stocks. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Stocks We Like, Talks.

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