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On this episode of Over the Money Fence, I joined Nicola and Di to reflect on what really shaped markets in 2025, cutting through the noise around artificial intelligence (AI), technology stocks, gold, Bitcoin, inflation and interest rates. I shared my outlook for 2026, including the risks of an AI-led bubble, the growing role of alternative strategies like private credit, and why diversification and quality investing remain essential. We also tackled the most common listener questions and discussed simple, practical steps to help people head into the new year feeling clear, calm and confident. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Investing Education, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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With that caveat out of the way, I am reasonably confident we should expect greater volatility and lower returns in 2026. Let me explain why I think that’s a reasonable assessment.

Since 2022, I have suggested that investors maintain a bullish disposition.

This article was first published in The Australian on 04 December 2025. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press.

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I joined Paul Turton on ABC Newcastle Mornings today to discuss the broader economic backdrop, including why interest rates are likely to remain steady for now, how household spending and cost pressures are shaping the outlook, and why global sharemarkets are being driven less by local conditions and more by international themes such as investment in artificial intelligence (AI), with long-term returns ultimately depending on earnings and business fundamentals.

Tune in from 37:54 to hear the full segment: ABC Newcastle Mornings. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss how Black Friday has evolved from a U.S. curiosity into Australia’s biggest retail event, now eclipsing even Boxing Day. I explained how the surge in discounting can pull Christmas spending forward and boost sales – but how it can also put pressure on retailer margins. I explored how this day can provide useful clues about consumer sentiment, inflation and overall economic activity. We also touched on the risks of shoppers leaning too heavily on credit, the seasonal jobs created by these major sales events, and why the growing list of endless promotions has effectively turned the year into one long discount cycle.

Tune into the episode from 1:42:25 here: ABC Statewide Drive continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Radio.

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With 30 per cent of the U.S. S&P 500 index trading at more than 10 times sales, and 13 per cent of the S&P 500 by index weight trading at 20 times price-to-sales (P/S) (a level that now surpasses the tech boom of 1999-2000), we’ll take a break this week from commenting further on market valuations and leave it to you to decide whether it’s wise to be fully invested in equities, or diversified.

This article was first published in The Australian on 21 November 2025.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I joined Angus Randall and Julia Bergin from ABC The world to discuss why, despite artificial intelligence’s (AI’s) enormous long-term promise, early investors often face the highest risks. History shows that major technology advancements usually go through a boom–bust cycle, which is why caution – not blind optimism – is essential right now.

Catch the segment here: Calls to boost Australian investment in AI. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I joined Phil Clark on Nightlife to explain why the market’s sharp fall may reflect growing doubts about the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. I argued that while AI is a powerful General Purpose Technology (GPT) that may change the world (like cars or the internet), it might not be as lucrative as investors hope. Today we’re seeing super-charged share prices, huge data-centre spending, complex vendor-financing deals and big losses at firms like OpenAI. Whether this proves a correction or a bust is unknowable, so my message to investors was simple: regularly rebalance and diversify beyond the AI winners.

Tune into the full episode from 4:49 here: ABC Nightlife Finance 

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.

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On Monday the S&P/ASX 200 tumbled two per cent, led by a sell-off in tech stocks. It’s now down about seven per cent over the past month. Concerns about the end of the interest rate cycle in Australia, a lack of information on Wall Street and the forever present geopolitical fears seem to be weighing on investors.

On Fear & Greed, with Sean Aylmer, I explained that stretched valuations and a cooling of artificial intelligence (AI) optimism are prompting a shift in sentiment – but this isn’t a time to panic. It’s a reminder to rebalance, trim what’s run hard, and look to genuinely diversified, uncorrelated opportunities.

Tune in to the episode here: Q+A: What’s next after yesterday’s market tumble? continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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Today on Ausbiz I joined Juliette Saly to discuss why artificial intelligence (AI) remains a powerful long-term thematic but is now exhibiting classic bubble warning signs. We need to question whether the exponential share-prices, circular vendor-financing deals, and the huge capital expenditure (CapEx) that we are seeing today, are sustainable.

While AI will undoubtedly transform the world, the economics underpinning today’s spending frenzy look increasingly stretched, with key leaders unable (or unwilling) to explain how trillion-dollar commitments will be funded. In times like these, disciplined rebalancing is a smart approach.

Watch the episode on Ausbiz here: What Nvidia could be telling us about an AI bubble continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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I joined Niav Owens on ABC Newcastle Mornings yesterday to discuss why cash is making a comeback – despite the rise of digital payments – and why it still plays an important role in budgeting, privacy, and accessibility. We also touched on the trillions being poured into artificial intelligence and whether those investments can truly deliver the returns investors expect.

You can listen to the full episode from 14:13 here: ABC Newcastle Mornings.  continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Radio.

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