Media Room

Are housing prices on the way down, and what does war in the Middle East mean for markets, investors and their superannuation?

I joined Phil Clark on ABC Nightlife to unpack these issues, explaining why forecasts of sharp housing declines are unlikely given the strong incentives supporting prices, from migration to government policy and bank balance sheets. We also discussed how rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions could delay rate cuts, the potential for recent market gains to fade, and how the “SaaSpocalypse” (Software as a Service apocalypse) and artificial intelligence (AI) are impacting companies and investors.

Tune in to hear the segment: ABC Nightlife. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Property, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Property, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications

On ABC Newcastle Mornings earlier today, I discussed rising recession risks and why, for many Australians, it already feels like one as cost-of-living pressures, high debt and shrinking disposable income take hold. I also shared practical steps households can take now to prepare, from cutting non-essential spending to building a financial buffer. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Radio.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Radio

Themes like artificial intelligence (AI) can drive strong investor demand, but they can also blur the finer details. As more AI infrastructure businesses come to market, it’s a reminder to look beyond the excitement and focus on valuation, incentives and structure, because these are often what ultimately shape investor outcomes.

Read the article: ‘Rug pull’ or index inclusion play? Firmus’ IPO lock-up rules in focus as its roadshow rolls on continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Market commentary, On the Internet.

• save this article
• POSTED IN In the Press, Market commentary, On the Internet

I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss how markets have responded to the recent Middle East conflict, noting that history shows geopolitical shocks often lead to short, sharp sell-offs followed by relatively quick recoveries as investors refocus on earnings and opportunities. I also highlighted that defence and modern warfare technology stocks have been key beneficiaries, while investors who remain disciplined or hold cash can take advantage of volatility, with history suggesting that even if markets weaken, downturns are often followed by strong rebounds. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

• LISTEN
• save this article
• POSTED IN Radio

I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss why Australian consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level in more than five decades, despite relatively low unemployment (around 4.3 per cent compared to over 11 per cent in the 1990s) and interest rates (around 4.1 per cent compared to 17.5 per cent in the 1990s), with the key drivers being a sharp rise in household debt (now about 180 per cent of disposable income versus roughly 45 per cent four to five decades ago) and an intense cost-of-living squeeze across housing, childcare (around $180 per day), education (something that used to be free), and everyday expenses. I also highlighted how this pressure is contributing to a hollowing out of the middle class and increasing postcode-driven inequality, while noting that periods of extremely weak sentiment can sometimes create opportunities for long-term investors as fear drives short-term market dislocations.
continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

• 2 Comments
• save this article
• POSTED IN Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, TV Appearances

I have been challenging my own thinking on this subject, and I am eager to distil the debate into the primary arguments, which are defined by a profound division.

That division mainly pits a sceptical public, the media, and some investors against an optimistic and arguably self-serving Silicon Valley, populated by tech pioneers and billionaires.

This article was first published in The Australian on 09 April 2026. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, In the Press, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Editor's Pick, Global markets, In the Press, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications

In my article for Firstlinks, I explore the uneasy disconnect between human tragedy and market resilience. While war brings immeasurable suffering, history shows that equity markets often respond with surprising steadiness. From brief sell-offs ahead of conflict to rapid recoveries during it, markets seem to march on, focused on profits even as headlines scream chaos. With the current Middle East conflict unfolding, investors are once again asking: will history repeat itself, or is this time different?

You can read the article here: Firstlinks – War can’t be good, can it?

by Roger Montgomery Posted in On the Internet.

• READ ONLINE
• save this article
• POSTED IN On the Internet

The market has surged, jumping 2.6 per cent in a single day on news of a ceasefire in the Middle East. After weeks of volatility, the key question now is whether this marks the beginning of a sustained recovery – or just another short-lived rally.

I joined Sean Aylmer to discuss what’s really driving the rebound. While the rally appears genuine, the underlying risks haven’t disappeared. In uncertain times like these, I also find myself returning to the timeless principles of long-term investing and discipline that have guided some of the world’s most successful investors.

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary, Podcast Channel

I joined Paul Turton on ABC Newcastle Mornings to discuss the current market outlook, noting that while geopolitical tensions may keep markets cautious in the near term, any resolution could trigger a short-lived rebound before investors refocus on deeper structural risks, including rising U.S. debt, higher bond yields as Chinese demand fades, and the longer-term economic disruption from artificial intelligence (AI), particularly its impact on employment and growth.

Listen from 36:46 – ABC Newcastle Mornings continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

• LISTEN
• save this article
• POSTED IN Radio

On ABC Statewide Drive, I discussed why geopolitical shocks have historically caused short-term market volatility rather than lasting weakness, with many conflicts followed by relatively swift recoveries and resilient equity returns. I also noted that while the current Middle East conflict is unlikely to become a world war, investors still need to watch the broader risks beyond the headlines, including elevated valuations, persistent inflation, higher oil prices, rising U.S. debt and the unpredictability of Donald Trump, all of which could make 2026 a more volatile and consolidating year for markets.

Tune into the segment from 1:44:38 here: ABC Statewide Drive – conflict and markets

continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

• LISTEN
• save this article
• POSTED IN Radio