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I joined David Taylor on ABC’s The Business to discuss the recent strength in the Australian dollar and why markets are viewing the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as one of the more hawkish central banks globally. I explained that investors are increasingly betting on further Australian rate rises, which has helped push the Australian dollar higher relative to other currencies. We also discussed how rising oil prices, ongoing geopolitical tensions and the upcoming federal budget could all influence inflation and the future direction of interest rates. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Foreign Currency, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.

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I joined Paul Turton today on ABC Newcastle Mornings to discuss the growing use of personalised or “surveillance” pricing, where companies use data like your browsing history, location or even behaviour in-store to charge different prices for the same product, often without consumers realising. I explained how this is already happening in areas like airline bookings and online shopping, and warned it could soon extend to essentials like groceries, with algorithms identifying what individuals are willing to pay and adjusting prices accordingly. While legal in many cases, I argued this practice erodes transparency, removes consumers’ ability to compare prices, and ultimately risks everyday Australians paying more, highlighting the need for stronger regulation to balance profit motives with fairness. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to break down what’s actually on the table ahead of the federal budget. With a large deficit, ongoing inflation and rising government spending, I said this is an important budget and a time when rumours can spread quickly. I pushed back on claims of an inheritance tax and a cash ban, noting there’s little political appetite for either, while highlighting that changes to superannuation for higher balances are already in place. We also discussed how an EV road user charge could be introduced over time as fuel excise declines. On housing, I said policy tweaks like negative gearing changes are unlikely to have much impact, with credit availability and migration remaining the key drivers. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary, Radio.

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Today on Ausbiz, I pushed back on forecasts calling for a 20–40 per cent collapse in Australian housing prices. In my view, that outcome is highly unlikely given the way our system is structured.

Yes, prices can fall. But when you’re bringing in tens of thousands of people each month and vacancy rates are sitting around 1 per cent, supply simply isn’t keeping up with demand. That imbalance continues to support prices. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Property, TV Appearances.

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China has supported a ceasefire in the Middle East and JD Vance made his first pilgrimage to meet with senior Iranian leaders. And while Donald Trump’s exit would inevitably be messy, and riddled with false starts, it seems reasonably safe to assume the process of ending the conflict began last month.

It seems the market received the brief. The ASX 200 is up almost 6 per cent from its March 23 lows, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are up 11 per cent and 17 per cent, respectively, from their lows on March 30.

The remaining question for investors is what happens next.

This article was first published in The Australian on 24 April 2026. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.

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Are housing prices on the way down, and what does war in the Middle East mean for markets, investors and their superannuation?

I joined Phil Clark on ABC Nightlife to unpack these issues, explaining why forecasts of sharp housing declines are unlikely given the strong incentives supporting prices, from migration to government policy and bank balance sheets. We also discussed how rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions could delay rate cuts, the potential for recent market gains to fade, and how the “SaaSpocalypse” (Software as a Service apocalypse) and artificial intelligence (AI) are impacting companies and investors.

Tune in to hear the segment: ABC Nightlife. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Property, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.

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On ABC Newcastle Mornings earlier today, I discussed rising recession risks and why, for many Australians, it already feels like one as cost-of-living pressures, high debt and shrinking disposable income take hold. I also shared practical steps households can take now to prepare, from cutting non-essential spending to building a financial buffer. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Radio.

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Themes like artificial intelligence (AI) can drive strong investor demand, but they can also blur the finer details. As more AI infrastructure businesses come to market, it’s a reminder to look beyond the excitement and focus on valuation, incentives and structure, because these are often what ultimately shape investor outcomes.

Read the article: ‘Rug pull’ or index inclusion play? Firmus’ IPO lock-up rules in focus as its roadshow rolls on continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Market commentary, On the Internet.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss how markets have responded to the recent Middle East conflict, noting that history shows geopolitical shocks often lead to short, sharp sell-offs followed by relatively quick recoveries as investors refocus on earnings and opportunities. I also highlighted that defence and modern warfare technology stocks have been key beneficiaries, while investors who remain disciplined or hold cash can take advantage of volatility, with history suggesting that even if markets weaken, downturns are often followed by strong rebounds. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss why Australian consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level in more than five decades, despite relatively low unemployment (around 4.3 per cent compared to over 11 per cent in the 1990s) and interest rates (around 4.1 per cent compared to 17.5 per cent in the 1990s), with the key drivers being a sharp rise in household debt (now about 180 per cent of disposable income versus roughly 45 per cent four to five decades ago) and an intense cost-of-living squeeze across housing, childcare (around $180 per day), education (something that used to be free), and everyday expenses. I also highlighted how this pressure is contributing to a hollowing out of the middle class and increasing postcode-driven inequality, while noting that periods of extremely weak sentiment can sometimes create opportunities for long-term investors as fear drives short-term market dislocations.
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by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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