Media Room

I joined Nadine Blayney on Ausbiz today to discuss why I remain cautious on the artificial intelligence (AI) investment theme, despite strong earnings from the major technology companies. While reported profits continue to rise, I argued that much of the spending on AI infrastructure is being treated as capital expenditure rather than an expense, making earnings appear stronger than underlying cash flows. I also suggested that today’s relatively modest price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios may not tell the full story, noting that markets can still suffer significant declines even from low valuations if earnings prove unsustainable. Ultimately, I believe the key risk is not that AI share prices are too high, but that investor expectations for future earnings may be too optimistic.

Tune in via Ausbiz here: The reason Roger reckons AI is a “bubble” continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Technology & Telecommunications, TV Appearances.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Technology & Telecommunications, TV Appearances

I recently joined ABC Newcastle Mornings with Kylie Morris to discuss why households may benefit from reviewing their spending habits, including a simple exercise of separating expenses into “wants” and “needs” to identify potential savings and build a financial buffer.

We also explored how interest rates can act like gravity on asset prices, with higher rates reducing the present value of future cash flows – potentially weighing on shares and other investments.

Finally, we touched on the implications of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom for investors and superannuation (with specific reference to the recent SpaceX IPO), including concerns around supply chain fragility, resource consumption and the growing integration of AI into critical systems.

Tune in from 37:30 here: ABC Newcastle Mornings continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary, Economics, Investing Education, Market commentary, Radio.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Consumer discretionary, Economics, Investing Education, Market commentary, Radio

In my latest article for The Australian, I argue that the extraordinary enthusiasm surrounding SpaceX’s Initial Public Offering (IPO) may be a warning sign that markets are entering a late-stage speculative phase. Drawing parallels with major thematic IPOs that preceded previous market peaks, I examine how Fear of Missing Out (FOMO), passive investment flows, Artificial Intelligence (AI)-driven optimism and a growing disconnect between valuations and fundamentals are creating conditions that resemble past market bubbles. The key question for investors is whether today’s market is being driven by sustainable earnings growth or by speculation that could ultimately prove unsustainable.

Download the article here: Gravity-defying SpaceX IPO flags warning of market crash landing

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, In the Press, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Companies, In the Press, Market commentary, Market Valuation

In my latest Firstlinks article, I explore whether artificial intelligence (AI) is following the familiar path of past technology bubbles. As businesses shift from AI experimentation to demanding measurable returns, the question becomes whether the trillions spent on AI infrastructure will ultimately generate enough revenue to justify today’s lofty valuations.

You can read the article via Firstlinks here: Have AI’s four horseman arrived? continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications

I joined Kylie Morris on ABC Newcastle Mornings today to discuss the extraordinary rise of SpaceX following its record Initial Public Offering (IPO). We explored why the company’s valuation appears disconnected from traditional measures of value, how NASDAQ’s fast-tracked index inclusion could force ETFs and superannuation funds to buy shares, and why investors should be mindful of the risks that can emerge when market hype and scarcity drive prices higher.

Listen from 37:04: ABC Newcastle Mornings continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Global markets, Market Valuation, Radio.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Companies, Global markets, Market Valuation, Radio

A peace deal between Iran and the United States has transformed the outlook for global markets – at least for now.

I joined Sean Aylmer from Fear and Greed, to discuss which sectors stand to benefit most from falling oil prices, why airlines, retailers and property stocks could outperform, and why history suggests investors should be cautious despite the optimism.

I also touch on the extraordinary valuation of SpaceX, why Elon Musk may be the greatest marketer the world has ever seen, and the surprising role Google may have played ahead of the company’s IPO.

Listen here: 

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market Valuation, Podcast Channel.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market Valuation, Podcast Channel

When it comes to IPOs, you generally don’t want to be a member of any club that will have you. But, Australian retail investors are being given access.

Whether it’s the timing, the size, or something more sinister, the SpaceX IPO is poised to be one of the more polarising stockmarket milestones in recent times.

This article was first published in The Australian on 09 June 2026.
continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, In the Press.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Companies, In the Press

I joined ABC Weekend Breakfast to discuss the record-breaking SpaceX Initial Public Offering (IPO), which briefly pushed Elon Musk’s wealth beyond US$1 trillion and valued the company at more than US$2 trillion. We explored what drove the strong debut, why much of SpaceX’s revenue now comes from its AI and data centre businesses rather than its space operations, and how NASDAQ’s decision to fast-track the stock into its index could force ETFs and index funds to buy shares. We also discussed the potential impact of insider selling in the months ahead and what the IPO could mean for everyday investors. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary, Popular, TV Appearances.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Global markets, Market commentary, Popular, TV Appearances

I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss why oil prices may be giving investors a false sense of calm. While markets expect Middle East tensions to ease, the release of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve and the need to eventually replenish those supplies could create the conditions for a sharp spike in oil prices, with implications for inflation, interest rates and share markets.

Tune in from 1:45:16: ABC Statewide Drive continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Market commentary, Radio.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Energy / Resources, Market commentary, Radio

I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss why Australia may be heading down the same path as Canada and New Zealand. Net overseas migration has nearly doubled from an average of 220,000 people per annum between 2007 and 2022 to around 423,000 per annum since May 2022, yet real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita has been positive in only 4 of the past 15 quarters. We also discussed Australia’s weak productivity growth and whether population growth has been masking a slowing economy.

continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, TV Appearances