Editor’s Pick

Worley Limited (ASX: WOR) has spent much of the past decade trying to redefine itself. Once known primarily as a traditional engineering contractor tied to cyclical project work, the company expanded aggressively into energy services through the acquisition of Jacobs’ ECR division in 2019, just before the world turned against fossil fuels. What followed was a difficult period marked by integration challenges, weak energy markets and a sharp de-rating as investors questioned both the strategy and the sustainability of earnings. Today, that same business is being viewed through a very different lens as the importance of energy and infrastructure are being highlighted by headlines and capital allocation. continue…

by Sean Sequeira Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Stocks We Like.

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In this video insight, I explain why, while economists continue debating whether a recession is coming, many Australians are already living through one, as falling retail volumes, reduced discretionary spending and rising everyday costs take hold. Drawing on real-world examples from business owners and households, I highlight how shrinking disposable income is driving cutbacks, before outlining practical steps to prepare, including reducing non-essential spending, paying down high-cost debt and protecting your primary source of income. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Video Insights.

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There’s been a conga line of prognosticators who have forecast falling house prices. All of them have faded into history as house prices have grown since the 1970s, first at the rate of inflation, then at the rate of wage growth, then at the rate of Artemis II launch.

Recently, Money.com.au contracted Primara Research to produce a forecast of Aussie house prices for 2030 under a variety of interest rate, supply, and unemployment scenarios. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Property.

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With public markets more volatile there’s a growing focus on investments that can deliver regular income with less reliance on market movements.

Australian private credit stands out because it’s built more conservatively and with a clear focus on protecting investor capital, supported by a robust regulatory framework and the transparency of the Personal Property Securities Register (PPSR), which clearly defines lender priority. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Editor's Pick, Whitepapers.

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Should persistent inflation drive a portfolio shift?

Helped by a 12 per cent rally since the war-inspired low recorded on March 30, the U.S. S&P 500 index is now at new all-time highs and more than two per cent above its previous all-time high recorded in February. 

It’s reasonable to conclude the global and U.S. economies are healthy and booming, as is the AI rollout. But those booms, along with the shocks stemming from war in the Middle East, may be sowing the seeds of a pivot and an inflation threat that could have serious implications for portfolio construction. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I have been challenging my own thinking on this subject, and I am eager to distil the debate into the primary arguments, which are defined by a profound division.

That division mainly pits a sceptical public, the media, and some investors against an optimistic and arguably self-serving Silicon Valley, populated by tech pioneers and billionaires.

This article was first published in The Australian on 09 April 2026. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, In the Press, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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The news that an Iranian drone reportedly struck a U.S.-linked commercial oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz has done more than just spike the price of oil; it’s arguably shattered the fragile market equilibrium we’ve seen since the start of the year. And arguably, as intended, it has distracted everyone from the Epstein files.

At the time of writing Brent and WTI crude were up $US15 to $US107 a barrel. The Nikkei plummeted 4.5 per cent, and U.S. futures have cratered by as much as two per cent. So, why has a single drone strike erased billions in equity value across the globe?

This article was first published in The Australian on 09 March 2026. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, Global markets, In the Press, Market commentary.

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Over the weekend, Michael Howell from CrossBorder Capital updated his global liquidity analysis, concluding the sell-off isn’t over for Bitcoin, and elsewhere, accelerating global economic growth will draw liquidity from other asset markets, limiting their upside.

In Bitcoin, while some forecasters eye a rally to $90,000, Howell and the team at CrossBorder Capital have other ideas.

According to Howell, the wind has been knocked out of the sails of the “Everything Bubble”, and if you’re holding out for a vertical move upward, a skid toward $30,000 is the more statistically likely path. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.

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It’s been a chaotic morning for JB Hi-Fi (JBH) investors. If you’ve been watching the screens, you might have developed a mild case of whiplash. JB Hi-Fi shares opened over 5 per cent higher at around $80, fell to $72 (down 4 per cent), and have since clawed back above $80, reflecting a classic case of a solid half-year result clashing with a cautious outlook for the rest of 2026.

A solid 1H26 result

On the surface, JB Hi-Fi remains a poster child of execution. Sales and Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) were both up over 7 per cent year-on-year (YoY), largely meeting or exceeding consensus expectations. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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Commonwealth Bank (ASX: CBA), under the guidance of CEO Matt Comyn, has once again proven why it’s considered the best Australian bank. Despite a muddy economic backdrop and fierce competition in the mortgage market, the bank’s half-year FY26 (1H26) results beat analyst expectations (again).

While the headline numbers were strong and will dominate today’s commentary, a more interesting story lies in the shifting dynamics of Australia’s largest lender. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Financial Services, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Stocks We Like.

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