Editor’s Pick
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What does the U.S. yield curve tell us about recessions?
Roger Montgomery
March 16, 2023
Today, the vast majority of the U.S. yield curve is negatively sloped. Every time this has happened in the past, a recession soon followed. This is no doubt troubling for those adversely affected. But, as an investor, I am not unduly concerned – any market turmoil could present opportunities to invest in quality businesses at bargain prices. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets.
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Another U.S. Bank fails overnight. Now it’s three.
Roger Montgomery
March 13, 2023
Everyone’s talking about the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) – the largest bank failure since the global financial crisis – and debating whether it’s the start of another financial crisis. There’s Bill Ackman on one side of the Twitterverse, suggesting more banks will collapse like dominos, while on the other side, there’s U.S. President Joe Biden, who points to the safeguards introduced after the global financial crisis to stop another financial crisis from occurring again. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Financial Services, Global markets.
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Is QBE finally back on track?
Sean Sequeira
March 9, 2023
Just a cursory glance at the share price history of QBE Insurance Group (ASX:QBE) is enough to scare most investors away. After hitting a high of around $34 back in 2007, the stock has more than halved to around $15. But a new management team seems to be steering the business in the right direction, and many analysts see QBE as a turnaround story. continue…
by Sean Sequeira Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Stocks We Like.
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Time to get back to basics
Roger Montgomery
March 8, 2023
In this week’s video insight Roger discusses his views on what long-term investors should be focused on. Roger believes quality growth companies will ultimately return to popularity and when they do watch out. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Video Insights.
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Why Private Debt may be superior to bonds
Roger Montgomery
March 3, 2023
Looking for a higher rate of income? Who isn’t? But are bonds best? For decades investors have been told bonds provide uncorrelated ‘ballast’ for a portfolio of shares whilst generating much-needed regular income. The idea has been that shares offer growth, with bonds also offering diversification and stability. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Editor's Pick.
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Don’t bet on a U.S. recession in 2023
Roger Montgomery
March 1, 2023
After a 4.65 per cent increase in interest rates this past year, why isn’t the U.S. economy tanking? And why aren’t retail sales plummeting? One reason, perhaps, is that during the pandemic, many home buyers locked in fixed-rate 30-year mortgages at ultra-low rates, and they are thus unaffected by recent rate rises. If I’m right, the U.S. economy might avoid a recession in 2023. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets.
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Gary’s best and worst pick from reporting season so far
Scott Phillips
February 23, 2023
In this video Scott speaks with Gary Rollo, portfolio manager of the Montgomery Small Companies Fund on an update on small caps reporting this results season. There’s been more beats from an earnings point of view than misses, but that’s looking backwards. Outlooks count because after all, the stock market buys the future and those have definitely been more negative. Gary also shares one of the best results he has seen and one of the worst. continue…
by Scott Phillips Posted in Editor's Pick, Stocks We Like, Video Insights.
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If you are an income investor, it pays to think long-term
Roger Montgomery
February 22, 2023
The past year has seen a distinct switch in investor focus from growth to yield. The irony, of course, is that many so-called ‘dividend stocks’ can be long-term wealth killers. And that’s why we prefer quality businesses – like CSL – which can grow both their market value, and their dividends, over time. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Investing Education.
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What is next for small caps?
Polen Capital
February 17, 2023
The past year posed considerable challenges for equity investors, including runaway inflation, a rising interest rate environment, geopolitical tensions, and the lingering effects of the pandemic. The confluence of these headwinds – and a lack of positive catalysts – roiled market sentiment, resulting in most equity analysts adjusting their expectations for corporate earnings growth substantially lower. continue…
by Polen Capital Posted in Editor's Pick, Polen Capital.
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Is Breville good value after its recent results?
Roger Montgomery
February 16, 2023
Breville (ASX:BRG) the kitchen appliance company this week reported another record for half-yearly sales, albeit slightly below consensus. First half 2023 revenue grew 1.1 per cent to A$888.0 million, which was also 0.7 per cent higher, on a constant currency basis, than the first half of FY22. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Stocks We Like.
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