As headlines mount, I wonder whether the nascent disorder in U.S. subprime auto loans becomes a bigger fissure into which a stretched stock market could fall. With stock valuations hovering at historically stretched levels, even a hint of a macroeconomic or financial fracture could precipitate a correction. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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There are many consequences of gold’s vertical ascent to new all-time highs. One of course, is the queues of first-time buyers forming outside gold bullion stores around the world. A more subtle consequence, however, is the emergence of arguments that justify the rally and inspire those queues.

Throughout history, gold has functioned as both a store of value and a safe haven during times of monetary, political, and economic upheaval. Unlike fiat currencies or the assets of specific corporations, gold’s value isn’t linked to the fortunes of any one nation’s economy. This quality renders it especially attractive during crises such as wars, rising inflation, financial downturns, and global health emergencies. Its reputation for stability, its widespread recognition and universal and historical acceptability, has positioned gold as a go-to hedge against systemic threats and the erosion of currency value. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Over the last month, the U.S. stock market has shown signs of shifting priorities. That’s because, surprisingly, the top-performing sectors weren’t the usual suspects. They weren’t the high-flying artificial intelligence (AI), technology, or defence industries, but the more stable and defensive healthcare, utilities, and gold sectors. These sectors, seen as safe havens, suggest that at least some investors are bracing for turbulence.

It certainly raises the question: Are cracks forming in this bull market? Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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While bubble definitions abound, most fall into two camps: those that measure overvaluation and those that observe the behaviours and conditions that typically give rise to it.

The most straightforward definition of a bubble is asset prices climbing far above some measure of value, such as earnings, dividends, gross-value-added (GVA) or discounted cash flows. Robert Shiller’s famous CAPE ratio, which compares stock prices to long-term average earnings, and John Hussman’s market-cap-to-GVA, were designed to flag these distortions. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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I joined Phil Clark on ABC Nightlife yesterday to discuss what’s driving today’s market. Falling inflation, steady growth, and record central-bank liquidity continue to fuel this bull run. But with artificial intelligence (AI) spending soaring, returns need to justify valuations. We also discussed the rising demand for gold, with many investors viewing it as a hedge against uncertainty. Although physical gold might be nice to look at, exchange-traded options may offer more efficient exposure for investors.

Perhaps considering alternative asset classes that are uncorrelated to public markets such as private credit or arbitrage strategies may help to manage risk in these uncertain times. You can listen to the full episode here: Nightlife Finance with Roger Montgomery. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Radio.

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During a boom, warnings of bubbles and crashes are swept under a rug woven with proclamations such as “we’ve entered a multi-year bull market” and “there’s so much money on the sidelines waiting to invest”.

This article was first published in The Australian on 06 October 2025. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.

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Outgoing U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent remarks have sparked debate. Speaking at the National Association for Business Economics conference on October 14, Powell hinted that the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) long-running quantitative tightening (QT) program – its methodical unwinding of the balance sheet bloated by pandemic-era stimulus – may be “coming into view” for an end.

While perceived as a relief for many equity investors, halting QT might not actually be the good news equities investors are hoping for. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Foreign Currency, Global markets.

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We are in very unique times. In 1963, the late Sydney Homer published the first edition of his book A History of Interest Rates. Covering 4000 years of interest rate history, and now in its fourth edition, the book has become a classic in the fields of finance and economics. 

Nowhere in Homer’s pages however do you ever read zero interest rates.

So that is how extraordinary and abnormal the last 10 years has been. Human history has not hitherto experienced the zero interest rates we have all now experienced in the last decade or so. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Foreign Currency, Global markets, Market commentary.

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I joined Juliette Saly from Ausbiz yesterday to discuss the surge in gold buying and why it may be driven more by fear than logic. With queues forming outside bullion dealers, many investors are chasing gold as a hedge against inflation, currency debasement, or geopolitical risk – reasons that have existed for years. Yet, as prices hit record highs and physical gold carries steep costs and little utility, the rush looks more like Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) than sound investing. While gold can’t generate income and its vertical price rise seems unsustainable, those still bullish might consider exchange-traded funds (ETFs) over physical bars, which offer lower friction and better financial sense.
Catch the episode on Ausbiz here: Are we paying too much for gold?

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market Valuation, TV Appearances.

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Yesterday on ABC Statewide Drive, I discussed how Australia’s rising unemployment rate has lifted the odds of an interest rate cut – a move that could support valuations even as the economy softens. I explained why investors shouldn’t react to monthly data but instead stay focused on quality businesses and consider diversifying into alternatives like private credit or arbitrage funds to stay balanced in a volatile market.

Listen in from 1:48:17 on ABC Statewide Drive.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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