Popular Articles

Today on Ausbiz I joined Juliette Saly to discuss why artificial intelligence (AI) remains a powerful long-term thematic but is now exhibiting classic bubble warning signs. We need to question whether the exponential share-prices, circular vendor-financing deals, and the huge capital expenditure (CapEx) that we are seeing today, are sustainable.

While AI will undoubtedly transform the world, the economics underpinning today’s spending frenzy look increasingly stretched, with key leaders unable (or unwilling) to explain how trillion-dollar commitments will be funded. In times like these, disciplined rebalancing is a smart approach.

Watch the episode on Ausbiz here: What Nvidia could be telling us about an AI bubble Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Global markets, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

2025 has been an eventful year, with some strong returns – but what comes next? I joined Sean Aylmer from Fear and Greed for their Summer Series to break down the forces that shaped markets this year. Looking ahead to 2026, I explain why investors should expect higher volatility, limited future gains given today’s stretched valuations, and why rebalancing portfolios into alternative offerings that are uncorrelated to markets should be considered. 

Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Global markets, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

In this final part of my two-part series on General Purpose Technology (GPT) booms, I explain how these cycles typically end. History shows that even world-changing technologies – from cars to commercial flight –  delivered poor outcomes for most early investors. This is because technology trends eventually run into the reality that customers don’t spend money in a straight line (their demand rises and falls), and also the concept of “creative destruction” (wherein new technology leads to the obsolescence of outdated products). These cycles are exactly why it’s important to diversify and regularly rebalance your portfolio. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications, Video Insights.

• 2 Comments
• save this article
• 2
• POSTED IN Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications, Video Insights.

While most currently consider bubbles a dangerous precondition for a stock market crash, they can also be better navigated by appreciating they’re a necessary step on the road to humanity’s advancement.

As I have noted previously, there’s a myriad of definitions for asset bubbles, but most fall into two camps: those that measure overvaluation and those that observe the behaviours and conditions that typically give rise to it.
This article was first published in The Australian on 20 December 2025. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Investing Education, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

• READ
• save this article
• POSTED IN In the Press, Investing Education, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss how Black Friday has evolved from a U.S. curiosity into Australia’s biggest retail event, now eclipsing even Boxing Day. I explained how the surge in discounting can pull Christmas spending forward and boost sales – but how it can also put pressure on retailer margins. I explored how this day can provide useful clues about consumer sentiment, inflation and overall economic activity. We also touched on the risks of shoppers leaning too heavily on credit, the seasonal jobs created by these major sales events, and why the growing list of endless promotions has effectively turned the year into one long discount cycle.

Tune into the episode from 1:42:25 here: ABC Statewide Drive Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Radio.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Radio.

Today on Ausbiz I joined Sue Lannin to discuss the striking similarities between the 2011 iron ore boom and today’s artificial intelligence (AI) investment frenzy. Back then, surging optimism and over-investment in mining services ended abruptly when supply outstripped demand. I’m seeing echoes of that now in AI, with forecasts of trillions in annual spending that don’t appear sustainable or supported by realistic revenue. With companies like Meta and Microsoft already under pressure, I believe we’re nearing the end of this boom as investors start questioning whether the numbers truly add up.

Watch the episode on Ausbiz here: What does the AI Boom have to do with iron ore?

Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in TV Appearances.

• save this article
• POSTED IN TV Appearances.

I joined Juliette Saly from Ausbiz yesterday to discuss the surge in gold buying and why it may be driven more by fear than logic. With queues forming outside bullion dealers, many investors are chasing gold as a hedge against inflation, currency debasement, or geopolitical risk – reasons that have existed for years. Yet, as prices hit record highs and physical gold carries steep costs and little utility, the rush looks more like Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) than sound investing. While gold can’t generate income and its vertical price rise seems unsustainable, those still bullish might consider exchange-traded funds (ETFs) over physical bars, which offer lower friction and better financial sense.
Catch the episode on Ausbiz here: Are we paying too much for gold?

Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market Valuation, TV Appearances.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market Valuation, TV Appearances.

Today on Ausbiz with Juliette Saly, I explained that while low valuations in 2022 set the stage for strong returns, we’re now at the opposite end of the spectrum, with very high price-to-earning ratios (P/Es), elevated enthusiasm (especially around artificial intelligence) – and growing economic and geopolitical uncertainty, all of which point to lower returns and greater volatility in 2026. We’re also seeing signs of speculative excess in the AI thematic, from soaring private valuations to rising constraints around energy and water that are likely to create speed bumps for the sector.  Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, TV Appearances.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary, TV Appearances.

I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to reflect on how strong global markets have been over the past three years (particularly in the U.S.) while noting that future returns are likely to be more volatile. I explained that the powerful mix of falling inflation, solid growth, abundant liquidity and enthusiasm around artificial intelligence (AI) that drove markets since late 2022 is now changing, with inflation proving stickier, the jobs market losing momentum and liquidity conditions shifting as we head into 2026. 

Tune in from 1:46:40 here: ABC Statewide Drive Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary, Radio.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Market commentary, Radio.

As investors, if we’re intellectually honest, we’re bound to be wrong a few times more than we would like. And the longer the investment career, the higher the accumulated mistakes pile up. So how do successful investors survive them and continue to build on their success?

In holiday mode, I was re-reading some vintage Graham and Dodd, and what struck me was how minimal the damage from their mistakes would be, thanks to the safeguards built into their approach. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary.