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Financial markets are acting like a friend who says one thing but does another. Investors are sending conflicting messages about the economy, interest rates, and what’s coming next.

The mixed signals

Investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by up to two per cent over this easing cycle. Trump of course, always the glutton, wants even more. That’s a big deal – rate cuts of this size usually happen when the economy is in trouble or heading into a recession. Lower rates make borrowing cheaper, encouraging spending and investment to boost a slowing economy. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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With markets hitting record highs, debt warnings echoing, and artificial intelligence (AI) reshaping everything, there’s plenty to unpack. Here’s a quick look at four key topics of investor conversations.

Ray Dalio’s debt warning and the case for gold and bitcoin

The billionaire founder of hedge fund leviathan Bridgewater Associates, Ray Dalio, is a man fond of predicting recessions and crises. His are a reminder that in order to be an accurate forecaster, you merely have to forecast often. Eventually, you’ll be right, just as a stopped clock is right twice a day. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.

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Yesterday, I joined Paul Turton on ABC Newcastle Mornings to unpack the recent developments in the Middle East and their implications for global markets, with a specific focus on stock performance and oil prices. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio.

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We’ve all heard the stories of entrepreneurs who succeeded after failure. Less common are the stories of those who failed after succeeding. Heck, I Googled “entrepreneurs who failed AFTER succeeding” and Google returned pages and pages of articles with titles similar to; “How successful entrepreneurs bounce back from failure.” The opposite of what I was searching for. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education.

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If last year I had told you that 2025 would bring with it a U.S. president who sparks a global trade war, that Israel would expand a war with Palestine to Iran, the U.S. would join the commotion and drop bombs on Iran, and U.S. treasury bond rates would be high, I suspect you would predict the stock market to trade lower. Much lower. 

And yet here we are, with the S&P 500 near or at all-time highs.

This article was first published in The Australian on 26 June 2025. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press.

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Earlier this week, we published our Financial Year 2025 (FY25) Reporting Season calendar, so make sure you have a look at that. Here a quick overview of what you could be watching for as Australia’s FY25 reporting season gets underway.

While equity markets have demonstrated resilience through the first half of the year, this earnings season could prove to be an inflection point – one that will either reaffirm confidence or expose the cracks beneath recent optimism. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.

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Notwithstanding Trump’s concerted efforts to create disharmony, civil unrest and global tensions, there are three things that will determine broader equity market returns for investors. These are inflation, economic growth and liquidity. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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We are pleased to announce that Foresight Analytics & Ratings, has reassigned the Aura Core Income Fund a ‘VERY STRONG’ Investment Rating.  Continue…

by Scott Phillips Posted in Aura Group.

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QBE Insurance Group (ASX:QBE), a top 10 company in the portfolios of The Montgomery Fund and The Montgomery [Private] Fund, has delivered an impressive 2025 first-half result, significantly outperforming analyst expectations across key metrics.

Bolstered by strong investment income, favourable underlying prior-year claims development (PYD), and below-budget catastrophe (CAT) claims, QBE’s results underline its operational strength and strategic progress. Despite challenges such as moderating premium rate increases and elevated large losses in North America, the company’s reaffirmed financial year 2025 (FY25) guidance and robust capital position signal further upside potential. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Insurance, Stocks We Like.

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With all the chaos unfolding, unwinding and unfolding again in the Middle East, it’s easy to forget the bigger battle – the one for democracy in the U.S. – is still being waged. Back in early April, during the chaos of the tariff war-induced market turmoil, Donald Trump issued an executive order headed: “Maintaining Acceptable Water Pressure in Showerheads.” Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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