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Do new highs make sense?
Roger Montgomery
September 4, 2025
There is considerable academic and market commentary showing that equity markets often take time – sometimes weeks or months – to digest new information fully.
While Eugene Fama’s efficient market hypothesis posits that prices reflect available information almost instantly, we know that information is not evenly distributed. For example, studies on “post-earnings announcement drift” demonstrate that after companies release quarterly results, share prices tend to drift in the direction of the earnings surprise for an extended period. This implies investors initially underreact. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Copper traders have been TACO’d
Roger Montgomery
August 12, 2025
Most of the time, prices for a security or a commodity trade in fairly narrow bands. Sure, prices trend because information isn’t distributed universally, and it takes time and confirmation for people to buy in or sell out, but on a daily (or even weekly) basis, price ranges and volumes are generally pretty narrow.
A few times every decade, however, you will experience or witness some truly epic moves over very short periods of time. When you see these, it may be helpful to be positioned with cash and access to research. I am not sure if the latest ‘epic’ move turns out to be one of those opportunities, but I do believe it is worthy of further attention. And like I said, they only happen a few times in a decade. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Manufacturing.
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Fear and Greed – What the year ahead holds for investors
Roger Montgomery
July 1, 2025
I joined Sean Aylmer on Fear and Greed Business News podcast to reflect on the 2025 financial year and explore what lies ahead for investors.
Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions (think the escalation of Trump-era tariffs, continued war between Russia and Ukraine, and the unfolding unrest in the Middle East), global markets have remained remarkably resilient. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Podcast Channel.
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Private Credit, calm amid market mayhem: real insights from a real investor
Roger Montgomery
July 23, 2025
In this video, we hear from Russell, an experienced professional who chose to invest in private credit for a specific, short-term goal. Unlike long-term investors, Russell needed access to his capital within a defined timeframe for a property purchase. His story highlights how private credit can offer a flexible, lower-volatility solution for investors with clear time horizons – especially when public markets may not be suitable. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Popular, TV Appearances.
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Bulls vs. bears – bubble brewing or rally building?
Roger Montgomery
August 28, 2025
In this week’s video insight I explore signs that today’s bull market may be showing signs of a bubble. The bulls point to two key observations supporting the markets’s strength. First, market breadth is widening – with more stocks joining the rally. And second, earnings momentum is improving with over 80 per cent of U.S. companies seeing positive earnings revisions.
While these observations appear supportive on the surface, they can also be read as signs of a maturing bull market edging towards a bubble. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Video Insights.
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Stablecoins, GENIUS Act, and why do they matter?
Roger Montgomery
August 5, 2025
There’s a lot going on in cryptocurrency markets and while many still dismiss them as a fad, recent announcements and enacted legislation in the U.S., demands investors begin to pay attention to the emerging asset class, if they haven’t already. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Ausbiz – finding resilience in the stock market amid uncertainty
Roger Montgomery
June 26, 2025
Today on Ausbiz with Juliette Saly, we explored why global stock markets are hitting new highs despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. You’d be forgiven for expecting markets to react negatively given the conflict in the Middle East, rising bond yields, Trump tariffs, and recent interest rate cuts. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Global markets, TV Appearances.
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Another round table
Roger Montgomery
August 20, 2025
With Jim Chalmers’, Treasurer of Australia, three-day roundtable kicking off yesterday, I thought it would be interesting to hear what different parts of the community were seeking. Of course, while collaboration is expected, consensus will be impossible, partly because of the diverse attendees, which includes representatives from the unions, government, business and civil society.
The other issue is that solutions require an understanding of the problem’s root cause. And when we are talking about labour productivity, most cannot even agree on first principles. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Looking at the artificial intelligence boom through Nvidia’s results
Roger Montgomery
September 9, 2025
When it comes to the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, few events command as much attention as Nvidia’s quarterly earnings calls. With so much riding on the boom enduring, including Nvidia’s $US4.15 trillion market cap, analysts and traders understandably dissect every nuance – from the precise wording of forward guidance to the subtle inflections in CEO Jensen Huang’s voice. They’re looking for clues about whether excitement or caution lies ahead or is presently justified. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Polen Capital, Stocks We Like.
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Nabtrade – a backdrop of uncertainty isn’t causing disruption…so far
Roger Montgomery
July 22, 2025
In my latest article for Nabtrade, I explore why markets continue to climb despite ongoing global uncertainty.
Momentum in sectors like artificial intelligence (AI) and expectations of policy support are helping to overshadow global uncertainty. However, elevated valuations and Trump’s unpredictability suggest a degree of caution would still be wise for investors. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in On the Internet.
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