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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss why traditional approaches to diversification may no longer offer investors the same protection they once did. We explored how persistent inflation has changed the relationship between shares and bonds, the growing concentration of global share markets in a handful of artificial intelligence (AI) linked companies, and why investors may need to diversify beyond traditional asset classes and markets by considering a broader range of investment strategies.

Listen to the full segment from 1:46:20 – ABC Statewide Drive Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio.

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Elon Musk issued a warning over the weekend about the state of artificial intelligence (AI) financing.

According to the SpaceX and Tesla founder, the debt markets have seized up for pure-play AI data centre operators, and more than 200 neocloud companies face severe consolidation or total collapse. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Technology & Telecommunications.

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I explain how we’re using AI in two key areas: to support investment research by synthesising information, generating ideas and identifying changes or inflection points in company reporting, and internally to improve how we allocate capital across the portfolio. Our internal AI operates offline, allowing us to use our proprietary research while keeping that information secure.

by Sean Sequeira Posted in Insightful Insights, Technology & Telecommunications, Video Insights.

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For the last twenty years, Silicon Valley – technology’s epicentre  – enjoyed a relatively frictionless relationship with the rest of society. We celebrated its invention and innovation, the high-paying jobs it created and the investment returns.

But after twenty years, the marriage appears to be dissolving.

In Robert Bryce’s 9½-minute documentary, The Data Centre Backlash, a grassroots anti-data-centre movement is shown rising worldwide, from Texas to Ireland.

The doco shows local communities waking up to the unquenchable demands that generative AI and hyper-scale cloud computing place on local water and electricity grids – and they’re pushing back successfully. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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In this week’s Video Insight, I explain why market volatility is a normal part of investing. While market pullbacks can feel unsettling, history shows they’ve often been temporary and have regularly occurred even in years that finished with strong returns. The key is staying disciplined and keeping your focus on the long term. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Intrinsic Value, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Video Insights.

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Michael Burry, the Wall Street legend made famous for shorting the 2008 U.S. housing bubble in Michael Lewis’s book The Big Short, is ramping up his short thesis again, while taking direct aim at the “idiots” (his term) in what he calls “Trump’s market”. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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I speak with Brett Craig, Director of Private Credit at Aura Credit Holdings, about how Aura structures its private credit portfolios with multiple layers of protection aimed at preserving investors’ capital. Brett explains how this begins with selecting quality Australian businesses, rigorous credit assessment and tangible loan security, before adding further protection through lender equity that sits below Aura’s investment in the capital structure.

We also discuss the role of diversification across thousands of underlying loans, short loan durations of typically three to five months, and independent monthly risk assessments by Open Analytics. Together, these measures are designed to manage risk across the portfolio and provide multiple avenues of protection should a borrower experience financial difficulty.

Learn more about private credit. 

Alternatively, you can speak with David Buckland or Rhodri Taylor here at Montgomery on (02) 8046 5000. Continue…

by Scott Phillips Posted in Aura Group, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Video Insights.

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In this video, I discuss Computershare (ASX: CPU), a global provider of share registry and shareholder administration services, and why it caught our attention during the year. I explain how the company’s decision to sell lower-returning businesses and refocus on its core operations has improved the quality of the business, while a significant fall in the share price presented a more attractive valuation. Together, these factors led us to establish a position in Computershare. Continue…

by Sean Sequeira Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Financial Services, Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Stocks We Like, Video Insights.

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In the stock market, equity analysts are typically bottom-up researchers. That means they start their analysis of an individual company with specific financial metrics and fundamentals, rather than macroeconomic trends or overall industry outlooks.

Instead of starting with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, interest rates, or sector tailwinds, a bottom-up analyst focuses on a company’s internal strengths, business model, and valuation.

A problem arises because modelling a specific company using the bottom-up approach occurs in a vacuum. 

Analyst A assumes Company A will take market share away from Company B. Analyst B assumes Company B will hold its market share and grow sales by 10 per cent. Analyst C assumes Company C will benefit from lower commodity prices, while Analyst D assumes the commodity producer will raise prices. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.

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This week, I am back with Nicola and Di for our series Over The Money Fence.

This series aims to help you take control of your finances with clarity and confidence. 

In this episode, we go through the fallout from the federal budget and explain why, despite being sold as a win for young Australians, the changes to negative gearing have actually made it harder for first home buyers to get into the market. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Podcast Channel, Property, Technology & Telecommunications.

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