Search Results for: property
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So bond rates are not ‘lower for longer’
Roger Montgomery
November 28, 2016
For most of 2016, we have warned investors about the dangers of accepting historically low bond rates as the ‘new normal’. The reality is that US 10-year rates lower than at any time since George Washington was sworn in as the first President of the United States is anything but normal.
Continue…by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Make no mistake, rising bond yields are bad for assets
Roger Montgomery
November 24, 2016
Right now, many investors are probably patting themselves on the back, having profited from a booming property market and the makings of a resurgent share market. But there is an elephant in the room – rising bond yields. And they could bring the party to an abrupt end. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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The long and the short of it; shares or property, or something else?
Scott Phillips
November 21, 2016
We recently held a webinar for those people who had shown interest in the two alternative investment solutions that we offer here at Montgomery, being; the Montaka Global Access Fund and recently launched Montgomery Alpha Plus Fund.
Continue…by Scott Phillips Posted in Market commentary.
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A perfect storm is about to hit the property market
Roger Montgomery
November 18, 2016
When real estate agents start warning you that property prices are too high, it’s time to pay attention. And that’s just what’s happened in the past week. It confirms my strong belief that the market is overheated – particularly new apartments. For many property investors, it will all end in tears. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Property.
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Why the rise in bond rates has hammered some good businesses
Stuart Jackson
November 8, 2016
A move up in bond rates, like we’ve seen over the last two months, inevitably feeds into the valuations of growth stocks. Add in any concerns about the near term outlook and the share price movement can be really extreme.
by Stuart Jackson Posted in Global markets.
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I am calling a short sell on Australian residential apartments
Roger Montgomery
November 4, 2016
If you wait for the swallow to sing, spring will already be over. In other words, waiting for the data to prove a trend has changed may be more expensive than you’d like. And while there is plenty of mounting data to suggest that property prices are heading for a big fall, there are also less obvious signals. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Property.
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Warning lights flashing for economy
Roger Montgomery
October 31, 2016
I have previously explained how, in an environment of low interest rates (that will eventually rise), and record high asset prices (that will eventually decline), now is the time to instruct to your adviser to investigate alternative strategies such as market neutral funds. After reading today’s blog you may be asking your adviser or the team at the family office team to ‘speed it up’.
Continue…by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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More signals that the property market may have peaked
Roger Montgomery
October 28, 2016
As we have written before, signals are everywhere. Pay attention to them, and you won’t need to wait for data to confirm that a trend has changed. Which brings us to the latest signals from our property market. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Property.
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Bond Rates
Roger Montgomery
October 24, 2016
Arguably the greatest risk to investors today is an underappreciation of how significant a change in bond interest rates will be on the market prices of every asset from shares, to property to collectible licence plates. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Whitepapers.
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Buckle up Dorothy. Kansas is going bye-bye.
Roger Montgomery
October 20, 2016
The warnings of an impending financial crisis are starting to come in from all corners. So, maybe they’re worth listening to. If the warnings materialise, Australia looks to be lining up for something much worse than anyone is anticipating, and we may not escape quite as easily as we did during the GFC. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Property ownership out of reach due to high prices, not ‘smashed avocado’ penchant, millennials argue
Roger Montgomery
October 17, 2016
David Taylor writes an article about a debate sparked by KPMG partner Bernard Salt, who said young Australians should spend less on breakfast and instead save for a home deposit . He mentions Roger Montgomery and his view on housing prices. Read here.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in On the Internet.
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Updating Realestate
Roger Montgomery
October 17, 2016
Realestate.com (REA:ASX) is the kind of business we like. It’s a price maker, not a price taker. We believe it will continue to perform well as the property market matures. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Property.
TaggedREA Group (REA)- 5 Comments
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POSTED IN Companies, Property.TaggedREA Group (REA)
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Who will win when Facebook takes on TradeMe?
Stuart Jackson
October 12, 2016
One of the stocks we hold in the domestic portfolios is TradeMe (TME:ASX). The company is an online marketplace for goods – effectively the eBay of New Zealand – and enjoys a dominant market position. But that could soon change. It is about to go head-to-head with Facebook, which has announced the launch of its own marketplace function. We will be watching TradeMe’s tussle with Facebook very closely. Continue…
by Stuart Jackson Posted in Companies.
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POSTED IN Companies.TaggedFacebook, TradeMe (TME)
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It’s time to consider short-selling as a mainstream investment strategy
Roger Montgomery
October 4, 2016
In an environment where low returns are the corollary of high asset prices – and the best-case scenario for most investors – any strategy that can add alpha from short-selling needs to move from the ‘alternative’ space into the mainstream. Yes, it’s time to consider short-selling as part of your investment strategy.
Continue…by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Investors: watch out if long bond rates kick up
Roger Montgomery
September 28, 2016
Arguably the greatest risk to investors today is an under appreciation of how significant a change in bond interest rates will be. And these rates can change even if central banks don’t raise their own short-term offerings. So discussions about what the US Federal Reserve bank does with the fed funds rate, or the Reserve Bank of Australia through its own open market operations, aren’t particularly helpful. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets.
Taggedbonds, GFC- 5 Comments
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POSTED IN Global markets.Taggedbonds, GFC
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Reasons to invest in a market neutral fund
Roger Montgomery
September 21, 2016
Buy low. Sell high. That’s all there is to it, right? Well, not quite. You see there are alternative strategies that not enough investors are taking advantage of. You could sell first and buy later at a lower price. As long as the selling is at a higher price than the buying, it doesn’t matter which comes first, you’ll still make a profit. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
Taggedalternatives, interest rates, market neutral- 3 Comments
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ASX outage, China and the property market
Roger Montgomery
September 20, 2016
In this interview with Ross Greenwood, Roger discusses Monday’s ASX outage and future share prices of the banks.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.
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Apartments to collapse in six weeks. Really?
Roger Montgomery
September 13, 2016
We don’t believe anyone can be so precise about the market prices for any asset class. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Property.
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Market Correction? What to do next.
Roger Montgomery
September 12, 2016
We all know that major corrections in the stock market occur more frequently than academic models suggest and more frequently than we would like. The question of course is not ‘if’ the market will correct but ‘when’? Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
Taggedalternatives, market neutral- 13 Comments
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POSTED IN Editor's Pick, Market commentary.Taggedalternatives, market neutral
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Don’t ask the barber if you need a haircut
Roger Montgomery
September 5, 2016
Some analysts say you shouldn’t ask your broker whether or not to buy stocks, as they have a conflict of interest – they will always tell you to buy. So, who should you ask? Perhaps J. Kyle Bass, the man who profited handsomely from predicting the subprime mortgage meltdown. Bass is convinced China will need to devalue the renminbi, which would be bad for equities. We think it may pay to read what he says. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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