Market commentary

I joined Michael Thompson on FEAR + GREED podcast to unpack one of the most volatile reporting seasons in recent memory. From sharp share price swings to three key lessons for investors — including signs of recovery, earnings downgrades, and the resurgence of small caps — this episode cuts through the noise to help you make sense of the market.

Listen to the full episode here:

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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In April this year, as U.S. equity markets fell – dragged down by Trump tariff headlines and inflation fears – long bond yields, arguably, should have declined as investors fled to safety. At first, the 10‑year Treasury yield dipped to 3.86 per cent on April 4, but by April 9, rather than continuing to fall, yields surged, with the 10‑year up to around 4.50 per cent and the 30‑year jumping 54 basis points – breaking the usual inverse correlation between stocks and bonds. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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In what is yet another controversial move, US President Donald Trump has asserted federal authority over the Washington, D.C., police department while mobilising 800 National Guard troops to the nation’s capital. He frames the move and deployment as a necessary response to rampant crime, but critics argue it reveals deeper authoritarian tendencies. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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I am fascinated by the standard descriptions of returns cited by commentators in the real estate market. I am also disappointed that a regular opportunity to educate investors about returns is so frequently missed. 

Back in July, an article in The Australian Financial Review, entitled Renovators’ return: How to maximise property value in 2025, observed, “The nurse and engineer have transformed the house they bought in Adelaide’s seaside Glenelg for $450,000 back in 2012. They’re now looking to sell for $1.9 million, a four-fold return compared with the doubling of house prices over the same period.” continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Since the advent of the car, railroads or electricity, few technologies have captured investor imagination quite like generative artificial intelligence (GenAI).  

The debut of AI tools like ChatGPT has attracted billions in research and development (R&D) and related construction investment at the same time that share market investors have poured trillions into AI-related stocks, inflating valuations to levels that some suggest should make even the dot-com era blush.   continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Kenneth Rogoff, the American economist, chess Grandmaster, professor of international economics at Harvard University, former International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief economist and co-author of This Time is Different: Eight centuries of Financial Folly, has spent his career chronicling the anatomy of financial collapses. In his latest article for Foreign Affairs (Sep/Oct 2025), Rogoff issues a stark warning: the U.S. is flirting with a once-in-a-century debt crisis – and its current political and economic trajectory makes a crisis not just possible, but probable. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Foreign Currency, Global markets, Market commentary.

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Australia’s longstanding objection to nuclear power stems from a combination of historical, environmental, and political factors. The country has abundant uranium reserves but no operational nuclear power plants, with federal bans under the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 and the Australian Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety Act 1998 prohibiting their construction. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Market commentary.

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In an interview earlier this month, Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital  delivered his analysis of the global liquidity environment and its implications for financial markets. His message to investors was clear: liquidity, not interest rates or economic cycles, remains the true driver of asset performance – and right now, the liquidity tide is rising. But as always, tides reverse. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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With Jim Chalmers’, Treasurer of Australia, three-day roundtable kicking off yesterday, I thought it would be interesting to hear what different parts of the community were seeking. Of course, while collaboration is expected, consensus will be impossible, partly because of the diverse attendees, which includes representatives from the unions, government, business and civil society.

The other issue is that solutions require an understanding of the problem’s root cause.  And when we are talking about labour productivity, most cannot even agree on first principles. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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For the last month or two, I have been writing with increasing frequency about the possibility of the stock market boom transitioning into a bubble. There are a variety of reasons for this, and they usually fall under two broad headings. The first is technical and the second is behavioural. Often the latter influences the former, but the reverse can also be true, so let’s agree that the sets in the Venn diagram intersect. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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