Market commentary
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Temple & Webster’s share price soars following its AGM update
Roger Montgomery
November 30, 2023
As we monitor the behavior of the Australian consumer, it’s crucial to acknowledge that consumption constitutes approximately 50 per cent of Australia’s GDP, significantly influencing decisions related to interest rates. The robust trading update presented during the annual general meeting (AGM) by Temple & Webster Group (ASX: TPW), an online retailer specialising in furniture and homewares, prompts thoughtful consideration. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.
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Should we expect continued softness in retail sales?
Roger Montgomery
November 29, 2023
Unsurprisingly, consumer spending dominates all other categories and contributors to economic growth in a consumption-based economy such as Australia’s. Australia’s private consumption accounted for 49.8 per cent of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) in the June 2023 quarter. Australia’s private consumption contribution to the Nominal GDP ratio, which is updated quarterly, from Sep 1959 to Jun 2023, averaged a 56.2 per cent share. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary, Market commentary.
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The RBA acknowledges boomers win and mortgagees lose
Roger Montgomery
November 29, 2023
Central banks across the globe find themselves in a challenging predicament, and our own Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) faces a particularly delicate situation. In Australia, an intricate interplay of demographics and home ownership dynamics creates a paradox where those who bear the brunt of rising interest rates are not the ones fuelling the inflationary fire through their spending habits. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Is there a New South Wales housing solution on the way?
Roger Montgomery
November 27, 2023
In something of a ground-breaking move to address the housing affordability crisis in New South Wales, the government has unveiled a plan to expedite the construction of homes by fast-tracking buildings that choose pre-approved designs. This initiative aims to ease the burden on prospective buyers and renters who have long struggled to find affordable housing options. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Property.
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MEDIA
Ausbiz – Winners are grinners: how boomers are benefiting from inflation
Roger Montgomery
November 24, 2023
In my recent interview with Ausbiz, I aimed to spotlight the differential impact of rising interest rates on different age groups in Australia. Specifically, I emphasized how baby boomers tend to thrive in such conditions, while the younger generation, particularly those managing mortgages, face a contrasting scenario. Additionally, I delved into the intricate dynamics of domestic inflation and discussed socio-economic consequences arising from intergenerational disparities. Watch the full interview here. Ausbiz – Winners are grinners: how boomers are benefiting from inflation
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, TV Appearances.
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WHITEPAPER
INTEREST RATES, THE BEST IT GETS. IT’S TIME TO DEPLOY CASH
Curious about the investment landscape in 2024? It appears that the current market offers a plethora of enticing opportunities for investors, a rarity not experienced since pre-pandemic times. This unique scenario stems from a confluence of factors, including elevated yields and comparatively rational equity valuations.
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Is forecasting a waste of time?
Roger Montgomery
November 24, 2023
I have had my fair share of bad calls. After more than three decades of investing, it’s safe for me to predict that there is next to no advantage in making predictions. What does make sense is to invest in great businesses and great managers and allow enough time to pass to allow the process of wealth creation within these businesses to occur. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Mezzanine finance revealing another weak spot in the U.S. economy.
Roger Montgomery
November 21, 2023
After the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), U.S. regulators imposed stricter regulations on larger banks. Limiting their riskier lending for commercial real estate and development. Their more conservative lending practices meant property owners turned to smaller banks or sought second loans from non-bank lenders to bridge their financing gaps, often on top of existing bank mortgages. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Property.
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The RBA is in a bind along with mortgagees and renters
Roger Montgomery
November 20, 2023
Just 48 hours after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lifted rates for the 13th time by 25 basis points to 4.35 per cent, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Chair Jerome Powell said at a conference in Washington that “we are not confident” the Fed has tightened enough to bring inflation down to its 2 per cent goal. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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MEDIA
Ausbiz – Data centers thrive in AI era
Roger Montgomery
November 17, 2023
In this week’s interview on Ausbiz, I wanted to delve into the growing significance of data centers due to heightened AI demand and increased cloud expenditure, which is drawing striking parallels to the early days of smartphone adoption. This surge in AI integration amplifies the necessity for computational resources and data storage, consequently fuelling the demand for data centers and the increasing value of investing in them. Watch the full interview here. Ausbiz – Data centers thrive in AI era
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications, TV Appearances.
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Another pivot in the AI theme
Roger Montgomery
November 17, 2023
We have written previously that the boom in AI-theme-exposed stocks will have to be supported by monetisation in order to be sustained. There are plenty of consumer benefits from artificial intelligence (AI), and consumers will indeed be winners, but for companies to see a transformation in their revenues from AI, something more than just tacking AI-powered features onto their existing products will need to occur. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.
