Market commentary

Investors must understand that correctly predicting artificial intelligence (AI) technology will change the course of humanity, even if for the better, does not automatically translate to desirable investment returns.

General Purpose Technologies (GPT) of the past, such as the automobile, electricity, commercial flight, steam locomotion and TV, have all changed the course of human history and yet more than a thousand car manufacturers have disappeared from the U.S. and none exist today that are profitable and have not been bailed out by government or private equity. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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This week, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) lifted the lid on the internal financial projections of OpenAI and Anthropic – the companies at the centre of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. 

By way of background, Dario Amodei, once a senior leader at OpenAI, parted ways with Sam Altman in 2021 amid strategic and perhaps personal differences and launched Anthropic that same year, seeded it with a $124 million Series A. The debut of ChatGPT in late 2022 blindsided the Amodei and handed OpenAI 100 million users overnight, along with an 18-month revenue lead. Anthropic pivoted sharply to enterprise-grade deployments of its Claude models, a bet that has now propelled its private-market valuation to $183 billion – still trailing OpenAI’s $500 billion mark, but closing the gap through disciplined business to business (B2B) focus. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.

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Today on Ausbiz I joined Juliette Saly to discuss why artificial intelligence (AI) remains a powerful long-term thematic but is now exhibiting classic bubble warning signs. We need to question whether the exponential share-prices, circular vendor-financing deals, and the huge capital expenditure (CapEx) that we are seeing today, are sustainable.

While AI will undoubtedly transform the world, the economics underpinning today’s spending frenzy look increasingly stretched, with key leaders unable (or unwilling) to explain how trillion-dollar commitments will be funded. In times like these, disciplined rebalancing is a smart approach.

Watch the episode on Ausbiz here: What Nvidia could be telling us about an AI bubble continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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Nvidia is increasingly finding itself at the centre of a growing list of round-robin style transactions between artificial intelligence (AI) players that are collectively raising the eyebrows of a variety of reputable investors and industry stalwarts, from Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates to famed short seller Michael Burry. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.

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Not only are stock market valuations stretched, but on the metrics that are most reliable for predicting future returns, the U.S. market is at an all-time high. We can say that factually and therefore categorically.  It’s not a matter of opinion. 

It’s worth remembering to bring everything back to the data to avoid the influence of emotions. 

The important question then is not whether reducing your exposure and rebalancing portfolios results in a missed opportunity to maximise gains, but whether you’ll regret not doing that, and instead of retiring in two years, being forced to work for another six or seven. Indeed, and upon reflection, there will always be regret; the decision is about which regret is worse. Letting gains evaporate might be worse than missing out on a few more dollars.

This article was first published in The Australian on 05 November 2025. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Global markets, In the Press, Market commentary.

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Wall Street’s S&P 500 dropped more than one per cent last week, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell three per cent. It’s really nothing in the scheme of things. That’s because the Nasdaq 100 is up more than 130 per cent in three years, and the S&P 500 is more than eighty-five per cent higher since October 2022. Nevertheless, last week’s turn-down was the worst week for the Nasdaq in seven months. What the index price declines perhaps don’t reflect, however, is a much sharper shift in the market’s risk appetite. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Artificial intelligence (AI) is supposed to have all the answers. It’s supposed to save us time and money. It’s supposed to be better than us.They’re the reasons the AI boom exists both on the ground and on the stock market.

The NASDAQ, trading at a near-all-time high, however, sits in stark contrast to questions now being asked about AI infrastructure spending and the future customer spending required to justify it.

Enterprise AI demand has lagged consumer adoption. Back in July, MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) found 95 per cent of enterprises were producing zero return on US$30-40 billion of AI investment. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Since my last column Is there a stock market bubble? Here are the warning signs, which was on the topic of recognising bubbles, subtle shifts have been occurring in the risk postures of major global investors that suggest you now need to behave more cautiously than before.

Some of those behaviours have been reflected in the relative outperformance over the last month of defensive sectors such as healthcare and utilities, beating technology, artificial intelligence (AI) and defence. And some of the same behaviours also reflect the changing picture of liquidity, which, of course, is the fuel that inspires all thematically driven rallies.

This article was first published in The Australian on 30 October 2025. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Market commentary.

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History might not repeat, but it rhymes – especially when markets climb to record highs. Indeed, as markets peak, so does collective optimism. Consequently, experts, economists, and central bankers alike tend to downplay the rising risks, anchor to the “new era,” and declare that ‘this time is different’ – the four most dangerous words ever uttered in investing. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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I am reliably informed it’s one of the bigger trends on TikTok at the moment; miming to a mashup of 4 Non-Blondes’ 1993 song What’s Going On, and Niki Minaj’s Bees in The Trap, created by DJ Auxlord, a college senior studying psychology in Ohio.

On Martin Place in Sydney’s CBD, the viral song blasted from a local’s speaker, its hooks – “bees in the trap, bee, bees in the trap” and “what’s going on” – perfectly juxtaposed with the real bees queuing to buy gold just up the hill at ABC Bullion. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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