Market commentary

In the past 23 years, the U.S. has produced one budget surplus (fiscal 2001) and 22 budget deficits. The past four budget deficits, from fiscal 2020 to fiscal 2023, inclusively have seen an aggregate budget deficit of $9.0 trillion and an average annual budget deficit of U.S.$2.25 trillion.    continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.

• 2 Comments
• save this article
• POSTED IN Editor's Pick, Market commentary

There’s no fundamental reason for bitcoin to rise other than it is becoming more popular. But as we all know, a shift in sentiment, while usually unpredictable, can have a meaningful impact on the listed price of an asset. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary

Reporting season is the gift that keeps on giving. Following on from our reporting of the great results from online retailers Cettire (ASX:CTT) and Temple & Webster (ASX:TPW), results from several other holdings are also encouraging. Seven Group (ASX:SVW), IDP Education (ASX:IEL), and Audinate (ASX:AD8) have all reported, and the initial response from the market has been positive. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary, Stocks We Like.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Companies, Market commentary, Stocks We Like

Temple & Webster (ASX:TPW) have already added to the positive retail momentum by Nick Scali (ASX:NCK), JB Hi-Fi (ASX:JBH), and Cettire (ASX:CTT).

continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Companies, Market commentary

Generally speaking, and while it is early days, this earnings season has been a good one both broadly and for the Montgomery Small Companies Fund, overseen by portfolio managers, Gary Rollo and Dominic Rose. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Companies, Market commentary

I recently wrote about my two big forecasts for 2024. One was that private credit would gain traction as an important asset class and would also feature more prominently in advised portfolios, especially for those seeking uncorrelated returns, lower volatility, and regular attractive income. I also stuck my neck on the block and suggested that if disinflation and positive economic growth dominate the economic backdrop, investors will adopt more risk and buy select small-cap stocks, closing the gap that emerged in 2023 between them and the mega-cap technology companies. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.

• 4 Comments
• save this article
• POSTED IN Editor's Pick, Market commentary

As we kick off another year of investing, I thought I would offer a couple of predictions. They come thick and fast at this time of year, so rely on them as you might dental floss for security when rock climbing.

continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Editor's Pick, Market commentary

Despite wars in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip, and the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023, the Magnificent Seven (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla) rose by an average 111 per cent over calendar 2023. This greatly assisted the performance of the US-based Nasdaq, up 43.4 per cent for the year. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.

• 4 Comments
• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary

In January this year, a veritable conga-line of economists and strategists were publishing their forecasts for the year ahead, as they do every year. Now, safely at the other end of the 2023 calendar, we have the luxury of testing the prescience of these clairvoyants. Here at Montgomery, we play the ball rather than play the man, so we won’t be naming any of the forecasters, but rest assured, these are all prognostications that were published and distributed in January this year. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

• 2 Comments
• save this article
• POSTED IN Global markets, Market commentary

In this week’s ABC Nightlife interview, my last for 2023, Philip Clark and I delved into the challenges facing the Australian retail sector. I highlighted the potential difficulties anticipated for retailers in early 2024, post-Christmas, with the contributors being a significant decline in consumer spending and savings. I also discussed the evolution of private credit since the GFC, with the lending gap between banks and the SME sector, along with the advantages it presents for investors. You can listen to the full interview here: ABC Nightlife – Retails challenges and the future of private credit

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary, Radio