Market commentary
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Farewell 2023, hello 2024
David Buckland
January 4, 2024
Despite wars in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip, and the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023, the Magnificent Seven (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla) rose by an average 111 per cent over calendar 2023. This greatly assisted the performance of the US-based Nasdaq, up 43.4 per cent for the year. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.
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A short history of predictions
Roger Montgomery
December 21, 2023
In January this year, a veritable conga-line of economists and strategists were publishing their forecasts for the year ahead, as they do every year. Now, safely at the other end of the 2023 calendar, we have the luxury of testing the prescience of these clairvoyants. Here at Montgomery, we play the ball rather than play the man, so we won’t be naming any of the forecasters, but rest assured, these are all prognostications that were published and distributed in January this year. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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MEDIA
ABC Nightlife – Retails challenges and the future of private credit
Roger Montgomery
December 20, 2023
In this week’s ABC Nightlife interview, my last for 2023, Philip Clark and I delved into the challenges facing the Australian retail sector. I highlighted the potential difficulties anticipated for retailers in early 2024, post-Christmas, with the contributors being a significant decline in consumer spending and savings. I also discussed the evolution of private credit since the GFC, with the lending gap between banks and the SME sector, along with the advantages it presents for investors. You can listen to the full interview here: ABC Nightlife – Retails challenges and the future of private credit
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio.
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Time for small caps to shine
Roger Montgomery
December 19, 2023
In my final video insight for the year, I wanted to share some potentially exciting news for all you small cap stock enthusiasts out there. I delve into the recent developments at the U.S. Federal Reserve and what they mean for small cap stocks. Will 2024 be the year for small caps? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Video Insights.
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Rocket fuel for small caps – three takeovers announced
Roger Montgomery
December 18, 2023
If you aren’t already aware I am optimistic about the prospect for small caps in 2024. Provided we have a combination of positive economic growth (even a short technical recession won’t upset my thesis) and a continuation of the disinflation that has informed the path of consumer prices over the last year, innovative small cap growth companies have the opportunity to catch up to mega-caps that dominated the investment landscape in 2023. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Collapse in household financial conditions laid bare
Roger Montgomery
December 15, 2023
Here’s a bit of a depressing picture for the retail sector for the September 2023 quarter. New data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) paints a bleak outlook for retailers this Christmas and into early 2024. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.
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Keep an eye on New Zealand as the lead indicator
David Buckland
December 14, 2023
In this week’s video insight, I delve into the discussions surrounding the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s proactive approach to inflation, the nuanced shifts in major economies, and the potential impacts of tightening monetary policies. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Video Insights.
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Aura High Yield SME Fund: Low dispersion of returns and no negative months (to date)
David Buckland
December 13, 2023
The standard deviation, or measure of the amount of variation, of the S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index over the period between 1 August 2017 and 31 October 2023 was 15.2 per cent. One standard deviation (or plus or minus 15.2 per cent) means the dispersion around the average occurs 68 per cent of the time, whilst two standard deviations (or plus or minus 30.4 per cent) means the dispersion around the average occurs 95 per cent of the time. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.
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Are small caps finally taking off?
Roger Montgomery
December 12, 2023
Back in July, I wrote about the historically large gap between large and small-cap companies, noting that the extremely narrow rally in the largest technology companies, now more commonly referred to as the Magnificent Seven, resulted in many smaller caps being relatively undervalued. The highest-quality names with earnings growth may present a compelling opportunity, especially if professional investors conclude the macroeconomic and interest-rate backdrop is supportive. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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What can we expect from stocks and bonds in 2024?
Roger Montgomery
December 8, 2023
Since late October, financial markets have witnessed a significant shift, adjusting to a softer labour market and persistent disinflation. As an aside, the latter – disinflation – was a condition we wrote about a year ago, suggesting it should support the share prices of innovative growth companies, especially those with pricing power. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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