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It hasn’t been widely reported (which could, of course, mean I am about to repeat the common mistake of reading too much into a central banker’s utterances), but earlier in March, Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, dropped a subtle remark that may shed light on the central bank’s mindset. As the Federal Reserve heads into its meeting this week, Powell’s words may also carry weight for the unpredictable economic road ahead. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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Electric vehicles (EVs) have been hailed as the future of transportation, promising a cleaner, greener alternative to traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Governments worldwide have pushed EV adoption through subsidies, tax credits, and ambitious targets, while car manufacturers have invested billions to electrify their fleets. However, announcements from major automakers, as well as recent data and surveys in the U.S., Australia, and Europe, suggest EVs may not be the wisest purchase for consumers today. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Manufacturing.

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For decades, it was wise to heed Warren Buffet’s observation that gold has no utility and that over any 100-year period, you will be better off owning income-producing assets. Gold, he said, can only be looked at and fondled. I have previously noted that gold is merely a bet on increasing fear and anxiety, and given these are sentiments, their shifts can be rapid and impossible to predict. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Guzman y Gomez (ASX:GYG) has reported its half-year results, exceeding the market’s expectations for revenue by two per cent but missed the markets earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) forecasts by four per cent. The market’s negative reaction to the results suggests the share price had moved too far ahead of operational milestones. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Small Caps.

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Back in February in our blog article Disinflation’s Bumpy Road we wrote: “With valuations now appreciably higher than at the beginning of 2023 and 2024, and now arguably stretched in parts of the market – particularly in high-growth tech – investors had been counting on rate cuts to justify further gains. But if the Fed remains on hold, or worse, if markets begin to price in a “higher for longer” scenario, equity risk premiums might have to adjust.”

The ‘Magnificent 7’ stocks (Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Nvidia, and Tesla) appear to be rolling in neutral gear, with an observable slowing in earnings growth. To be clear, earnings are still growing but the rate of growth is slowing down. So what does this all mean? Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets.

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One of my favourite movies of all time was a 1994 commercial flop. A comedy directed by the otherwise hugely successful Coen Brothers. The Hudsucker Proxy follows Norville Barnes, a naive young man from Muncie, Indiana, who arrives in New York City with big dreams and an invention. Barnes lands a low-level mail-room job at Hudsucker Industries just as the company’s founder, who is also its president, commits suicide by jumping out of a window. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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JB Hi-Fi Limited (ASX:JBH) has again outperformed market expectations with its first-half of 2025 (1H25) earnings results. JB Hi-Fi continues to demonstrate its knack for navigating economic uncertainty while driving shareholder returns through impressive cash generation and dividends. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.

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The front-of-mind topic for investors, now that reporting season is over, is what Trump’s trade wars and tariffs, the potential of an end to AI-related stock leadership, and general volatility mean for the stock market’s outlook. Today we touch on one of the bullish arguments I came across in my readings. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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The U.S is careening toward a potential recession, propelled by a dramatic escalation in trade barriers, including unprecedented tariffs on imports from China, one of its largest trading partners.

Economists believe the sweeping “Liberation Day” tariff initiative could trigger a sharp economic contraction by summer, and the fallout is already evident across corporate earnings, consumer behaviour, and global trade dynamics. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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Labor’s resounding victory at the weekend’s Federal Election, securing a second term with a strengthened parliamentary majority, defied predictions of a close contest, possibly reflects the idealism of a new generation of voters, and grants Labor a mandate to advance a socialist policy agenda.

Victoria’s fiscal challenges however are the result of a long-term Labor government running a socialist agenda that has now run out of other people’s money. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Economics, Market commentary.

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