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Should you always be greedy when others are fearful?
Roger Montgomery
March 4, 2025
Here’s something curious: the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) – an organisation with over 160,000 members – has a sentiment survey that offers insight into the opinions of individual investors by asking them their thoughts on where the market is heading in the next six months. They have been conducting the weekly survey of members since 1987. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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CSL’s mixed half-year: plasma strength offsets vaccine weakness, bright outlook maintained
Roger Montgomery
February 18, 2025
CSL (ASX:CSL) has posted its half-year results, delivering results that are best described as mixed. At the headline level, revenue climbed around five per cent, while net profit after tax and amortisation (NPATA) also nudged upward in the low single digits. Beneath these top-line numbers, the company reported a robust rebound in plasma collections, which was offset by weaker sales of its Seqirus influenza vaccines. Despite these mixed signals, management has reaffirmed guidance for FY25, projecting 10-13 per cent NPATA earnings per share (EPS) growth and a five to seven per cent lift in revenue. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Stocks We Like.
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JB Hi-Fi delivers (again)
Roger Montgomery
February 17, 2025
JB Hi-Fi Limited (ASX:JBH) has again outperformed market expectations with its first-half of 2025 (1H25) earnings results. JB Hi-Fi continues to demonstrate its knack for navigating economic uncertainty while driving shareholder returns through impressive cash generation and dividends. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.
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Could Oval Office madness be part of a bigger plan?
Roger Montgomery
March 6, 2025
The U.S. is a flawed country, but many believe, as the New York Times’s David Brooks noted, is fundamentally a force for good. Citing the Marshall Plan, the defeat of fascism, and the defeat of the Soviet Union, as examples, and acknowledging Iraq and Vietnam, as mistakes of stupidity, naïveté and arrogance, Brooks believes the U.S. has always been well-intentioned. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics.
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GYG delivers and expects to exceed FY25 forecasts
Roger Montgomery
February 25, 2025
Guzman y Gomez (ASX:GYG) has reported its half-year results, exceeding the market’s expectations for revenue by two per cent but missed the markets earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) forecasts by four per cent. The market’s negative reaction to the results suggests the share price had moved too far ahead of operational milestones. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Small Caps.
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The reality check from the DeepSeek-RI breakthrough
David Buckland
January 29, 2025
In this week’s video insight, I discuss the potential shift in the artificial intelligence (AI) and tech landscape following the emergence of DeepSeek-RI, an open-source AI rivaling Western models at a fraction of the cost. With Nvidia’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) recent sharp share price drop and questions around energy-intensive data centers, I explore how these developments could challenge U.S. tech dominance and reshape the AI market’s cost dynamics. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Technology & Telecommunications, Video Insights.
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The stock market’s stagnant start to 2025
Roger Montgomery
March 5, 2025
Two months into 2025 and a palpable sense of disquiet seems to have settled over equity markets. Far from the jubilant ascents of the previous two years, the stock market’s performance this year has been a sobering affair, marked by a notable absence of vigour. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Technology & Telecommunications.
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Half-yearly insights: bite sized summaries from the week
Roger Montgomery
February 28, 2025
With reporting season coming to an end, companies listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) have released their half-year results, offering insights into their financial performance and strategic direction. I have summarised the results of seven companies, highlighting key earnings surprises, market reactions, and potential opportunities for investors. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.
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MEDIA
December ABC Nightlife – Finance
Roger Montgomery
December 19, 2024
This week, I had the pleasure of joining Phil Clarke on ABC Nightlife to reflect on the surprising performance of the share market in 2024 and to discuss my outlook for 2025. At the start of the year, many investors and advisers anticipated modest returns following a strong 2023. However, the market defied expectations, delivering even greater gains despite being described by some experts as a “melt-up.” During the episode, I shared insights into why I believe markets may not be as overvalued as they appear, along with what else is on the horizon.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.
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The bears are waking up (again)
Roger Montgomery
January 31, 2025
The chorus of equity market bears is growing louder. This time, they’re suggesting the emergence of new, more energy-efficient artificial intelligence (AI)-powered large language models (LLM) combined with massive investment in the infrastructure required for legacy models will result in oversupply and crashing prices akin to that seen during the development and life cycles of previous technologies. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Technology & Telecommunications.
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Check out my latest appearance on ausbiz, where we discussed the current market conditions WATCH NOW
