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As an investor witnessing more than three decades of booms and busts, I find it increasingly difficult to separate investing from politics, especially when political figures have a harmful, toxic, and deleterious impact on investment performance. I am frequently told by those who disagree to stay in my lane and steer clear of politics, but under Trump, the two subjects are intertwined. I believe it’s impossible to peer into the future – where investment returns are produced – and ignore Trump’s impact, and therefore, his intentions. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Australia is the world’s second-largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), with an output of 81 million tonnes (MT) in 2024, surpassed only by the U.S., according to the International Gas Union 2025 World LNG Report. In a year when global LNG trade expanded by 2.4 per cent to 411.24 MT, Australia contributed a 1.48 MT increase, connecting 22 exporting markets with 48 importing ones. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources.

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In what some have described as a ‘dramatic’ 218-214 vote, the U.S. House narrowly passed President Trump’s US$3.4 trillion “Big Beautiful Bill Act,” a nearly 900-page tax-and-spending package that does mark a major victory for Trump and GOP (Republican Party) leaders. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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The global economy faces a complex landscape as trade tensions between the United States and China persist, threatening economic stability. This week, Ric Deverell, the highly regarded Chief Economist at Macquarie, shared insights on the potential for a U.S. recession, the resilience of China’s economy, and the ripple effects on global markets, including Australia and Europe. Our interpretation of his comments follows, and where data is independently available, we have provided that data along with sources. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Foreign Currency, Global markets, Market commentary.

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In this week’s video insight, I discuss the growth of Telix Pharmaceuticals (ASX:TLX). When the Montgomery Fund, The Montgomery [Private] Fund, and the Australian Eagle Trust Long Short Funds first invested in TLX, the share price was around A$11. Since then, the company’s share price has risen to A$26.75 with a market capitalisation of A$9 billion. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Video Insights.

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In this week’s video insight, I explore the complex interplay between Trump’s political theatrics and the U.S. bond market. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Video Insights.

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President Donald Trump’s tariff policies have understandably sparked fierce debates, with supporters praising their intent to bolster American economic strength as a reflection of the nation’s geopolitical pre-eminence and critics warning of unintended fallouts.

At their core, these tariffs aim to reshape global trade dynamics in favour of the U.S. But are these measures a masterstroke for American prosperity, or do they risk unravelling the very economic stability they seek to secure? I thought it might be worth unpacking the motivations behind Trump’s tariffs, their potential upsides, and the complex consequences that could follow. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Last night, I appeared on ABC News to discuss Westpac’s (ASX:WBC) half-year financial results, where CEO Anthony Miller reported disappointing numbers. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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The recent relief rally in the S&P 500 is welcome, but is it sustainable? The stock market’s vulnerability is a weakness in Trump’s arsenal against China, and it’s also a barometer of his popularity. Meanwhile, the market and the U.S. economy are heavily reliant on consumer spending, with personal consumption expenditures accounting for approximately 70 per cent of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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The U.S. economy and stock market are teetering, according to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones. Together, they warn that aggressive tariffs and a cautious monetary policy result in the economy and market facing heightened inflation risks, unemployment, and a downturn. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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