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Over the weekend, Michael Howell from CrossBorder Capital updated his global liquidity analysis, concluding the sell-off isn’t over for Bitcoin, and elsewhere, accelerating global economic growth will draw liquidity from other asset markets, limiting their upside.

In Bitcoin, while some forecasters eye a rally to $90,000, Howell and the team at CrossBorder Capital have other ideas.

According to Howell, the wind has been knocked out of the sails of the “Everything Bubble”, and if you’re holding out for a vertical move upward, a skid toward $30,000 is the more statistically likely path. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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It’s been a chaotic morning for JB Hi-Fi (JBH) investors. If you’ve been watching the screens, you might have developed a mild case of whiplash. JB Hi-Fi shares opened over 5 per cent higher at around $80, fell to $72 (down 4 per cent), and have since clawed back above $80, reflecting a classic case of a solid half-year result clashing with a cautious outlook for the rest of 2026.

A solid 1H26 result

On the surface, JB Hi-Fi remains a poster child of execution. Sales and Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) were both up over 7 per cent year-on-year (YoY), largely meeting or exceeding consensus expectations. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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I joined Sean Aylmer from Fear and Greed’s Summer Series to discuss the strengthening performance of Australian small caps, why quality matters, and where opportunities are emerging. I shared a number of small-cap examples across different sectors to illustrate these points, including ZIP (ASX:ZIP), a buy-now-pay-later business growing strongly in the United States; Megaport (ASX:MP1), a key technology provider connecting data centres where a recent acquisition is yet to be fully recognised by the market; Codan (ASX:CDA), which manufactures gold detectors and continues to benefit from solid demand supported by elevated gold prices; and MA Financial Group (ASX:MAF), a private credit manager seeing strong inflows as investors seek more reliable income.

The key takeaway from this episode was the importance of being selective and backing quality businesses.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Podcast Channel, Small Caps, Stocks We Like.

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Another week, another artificial intelligence (AI) powered disruption. This time, two big announcements from China that may threaten the valuations of the big U.S. hardware-centric tech giants. 

The news

First, the release of AI-produced hyper-realistic movie-quality video from the Chinese company ByteDance-owned AI Seedance 2.0 has gone viral and simultaneously rocked Hollywood by completely reframing what the movie industry thought was possible. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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The stock market is experiencing a dramatic bifurcation. While traditional sectors surge – energy companies are up over 20 per cent and materials firms 15 per cent – a different story is unfolding in the technology and financial services sectors. Established players are watching their valuations crumble as investors grapple with the answers to a simple question: which companies will survive the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution? Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Last night, on ABC’s 7.30 news report with Michael Rowland, I discussed whether surging investment in artificial intelligence (AI) is pushing large technology companies to unsustainable valuations. I noted that investors often become highly enthusiastic when new technologies emerge that are believed to reshape the world, but history shows this can inflate expectations. In the case of AI, the scale of spending by tech hyperscalers is immense, and to justify it they would need extraordinary levels of revenue.

Watch the full segment here: ABC News – Are AI investors causing tech companies to be overvalued?

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Market commentary, On the Internet, Technology & Telecommunications, TV Appearances.

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While most currently consider bubbles a dangerous precondition for a stock market crash, they can also be better navigated by appreciating they’re a necessary step on the road to humanity’s advancement.

As I have noted previously, there’s a myriad of definitions for asset bubbles, but most fall into two camps: those that measure overvaluation and those that observe the behaviours and conditions that typically give rise to it.
This article was first published in The Australian on 20 December 2025. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Investing Education, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Former CEO, public speaker and author, Jay Grewal once said, “When it comes to the final nail in your coffin, it doesn’t matter if it’s dull or sharp, it’ll still hold, because a lifetime of prior nails have helped seal that coffin shut.”

In what may prove to be merely another accumulated nail in the coffin of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, the narrative on Wall Street shifted dramatically last week as the tech-driven optimism that has fueled the market for years hit a psychological and structural barrier. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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In my latest article for Nabtrade, I explore why investors are rarely able to identify a bubble until after it has burst, and why the signals today suggest it may be prudent to prepare for a shift in 2026. Diversification and rebalancing is becoming increasingly important as market conditions become more turbulent. 

You can read the full article here: Bubbles create a shadow – time to move out from the shade. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in On the Internet.

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It’s a shot across the bow. In recent weeks, short, sharp sell-offs across the largest global artificial intelligence (AI) hyperscalers have woken investors from their technology and AI-inspired slumber. In just six trading sessions, Microsoft fell 18 per cent. Meanwhile, Amazon has declined 14 per cent in eight sessions, and Google parent Alphabet has fallen 8 per cent in just four sessions. Elsewhere, Meta fell 10 per cent, and Tesla has declined almost 12 per cent in 10 trading sessions.

This article was first published in The Australian on 11 February 2026. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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