Popular Articles

Let’s state the obvious right at the outset: No one knows for certain if the equity market will crash.

The reality of investing is that we can rarely identify a bubble until after it has burst, which means we can never be sure when we are inside one. However, with that necessary disclaimer in place, I am reasonably confident that investors should prepare for a shift in 2026. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.

We are in very unique times. In 1963, the late Sydney Homer published the first edition of his book A History of Interest Rates. Covering 4000 years of interest rate history, and now in its fourth edition, the book has become a classic in the fields of finance and economics. 

Nowhere in Homer’s pages however do you ever read zero interest rates.

So that is how extraordinary and abnormal the last 10 years has been. Human history has not hitherto experienced the zero interest rates we have all now experienced in the last decade or so. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Foreign Currency, Global markets, Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Foreign Currency, Global markets, Market commentary.

According to Google, Matt Stoller is a prominent American writer, researcher, and anti-monopoly advocate, known for his work at the American Economic Liberties Project and his popular Substack newsletter, BIG, which focuses on market power, antitrust, and the war against monopolies. He’s a former policy advisor and a key figure in the modern anti-monopoly movement, advocating for breaking up large corporations and promoting competition, drawing support from across the political spectrum. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary.

I joined Phil Clark on ABC Nightlife yesterday to discuss what’s driving today’s market. Falling inflation, steady growth, and record central-bank liquidity continue to fuel this bull run. But with artificial intelligence (AI) spending soaring, returns need to justify valuations. We also discussed the rising demand for gold, with many investors viewing it as a hedge against uncertainty. Although physical gold might be nice to look at, exchange-traded options may offer more efficient exposure for investors.

Perhaps considering alternative asset classes that are uncorrelated to public markets such as private credit or arbitrage strategies may help to manage risk in these uncertain times. You can listen to the full episode here: Nightlife Finance with Roger Montgomery. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Radio.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Radio.

Nvidia is increasingly finding itself at the centre of a growing list of round-robin style transactions between artificial intelligence (AI) players that are collectively raising the eyebrows of a variety of reputable investors and industry stalwarts, from Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates to famed short seller Michael Burry. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Companies, Market commentary.

In this week’s video insight, I highlight the folly of buying physical gold amid the recent surge in prices. When people were lining up at Sydney’s bullion stores paying nearly $225,000 per kilo, it signalled a market nearing its peak – exponential rallies like that are rarely sustainable. Beyond timing risk, buying bullion involves steep frictional costs, with a spread of around 7 per cent between buy and sell prices. Since then, gold prices have fallen sharply, leaving many buyers facing losses. If you really want exposure to gold, I argue it’s far more efficient to buy a low-cost exchange-traded fund (ETF) rather than lining up for physical bullion. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Video Insights.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Video Insights.

In my video insight ‘How General Purpose Technology booms end”, last month, I spoke about the five stages of a GPT boom and the inevitable, sometimes violent, way they end. I suggested that while the latest GPT – Artificial Intelligence (AI) – is undoubtedly life-altering and ultimately structural, the commercial path to its adoption is governed by cyclicality and the cost of capital. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary.

Breville Group (ASX: BRG) delivered a concise trading update at its Annual General Meeting yesterday, focusing on the first half of financial year 2026 (1H26) to date. While the commentary was positive on several fronts, ongoing uncertainties remain in the U.S. market. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Companies.

In this video insight, I question whether the trillions being poured into artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure can ever be justified. By 2028, the industry’s hardware and data centre spend could exceed US$3 trillion, yet customers would need to spend over US$3 trillion a year – around 10 per cent of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) – to make the math work. Unless adoption and profits scale far faster than history suggests, this AI rocket ship could run out of fuel. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Video Insights.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Video Insights.

Fourteen years ago, in 2011, a commodity boom in iron ore saw BHP’s share price hit $40 for the first time. It was the 8^th of April 2011. There was great excitement, surrounding Australia being the ‘lucky’ country yet again. Peter Richardson, Morgan Stanley’s then global metals chief economist, put forward a strong investment case for the “crucial” steelmaking commodity.

We will see Morgan Stanley again soon.

By contrast, on April 11 that year we published a blog Will China demand Iron… or…?, where we wrote that iron ore prices would henceforth decline, ending the commodity boom and causing buoyant share prices to fall. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary.