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In April this year, as U.S. equity markets fell – dragged down by Trump tariff headlines and inflation fears – long bond yields, arguably, should have declined as investors fled to safety. At first, the 10‑year Treasury yield dipped to 3.86 per cent on April 4, but by April 9, rather than continuing to fall, yields surged, with the 10‑year up to around 4.50 per cent and the 30‑year jumping 54 basis points – breaking the usual inverse correlation between stocks and bonds. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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In this week’s video insight, I explore whether we’re in the midst of a genuine market boom – or drifting into bubble territory. While strong earnings, high margins, and a pause in rate hikes have fuelled the rally, valuations are stretching well beyond historical norms. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Video Insights.

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Auckland International Airport (ASX:AIA), New Zealand’s premier gateway handling the bulk of the nation’s international traffic, delivered a resilient performance for 2025, after navigating a weakening economy, airline capacity constraints, and ongoing infrastructure investments. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Airlines, Companies, Stocks We Like.

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ARB’s financial year 2025 ( FY25) results reflect a challenging environment, with a four per cent profit before tax (PBT) miss driven by lower gross margins. The Thai Baht’s strength and lower factory recoveries (more on this below) squeezed margins, a trend exacerbated by ARB’s unhedged foreign exchange (FX) exposure. However, the company’s ability to offset this through cost control – particularly a leaner employee cost base – demonstrates operational resilience. The 50-cent special dividend, backed by a net cash position and significant property assets, highlights ARB’s financial strength and management’s confidence in future cash flows. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.

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The Reece Limited (ASX: REH) share price has recorded a rough year, down around 60 per cent from A$29.20 to sub A$12.00. The company reported its results for the 12 months to 30 June, and it appears pressure on the earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) margin from 7.4 per cent in fiscal 2024 to 6.1 per cent in the six months to June 2025 could continue. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Companies.

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In this week’s video insight, I explore the rally driving equity markets, led by technology stocks and the artificial intelligence (AI) boom – which are being fueled by a flood of central bank liquidity.

While company earnings have been strong and inflation is cooling, signs of excessive speculation are starting to emerge – from meme stock rallies to a surge in short-dated options and unprofitable companies tripling in value. With global risks rising and U.S. debt levels climbing, perhaps now could be a sensible time to reassess your portfolio and consider reallocating some gains into assets that have less public market risk. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Video Insights.

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In this episode of Over the Money Fence, I join Nicola and Di to explore the Three Bucket Strategy – a simple yet powerful way to take control of your finances with structure and confidence. Life can get busy and complicated, especially when juggling adult children and aging parents, life events like divorce, or inheritances can also complicate your finances. This strategy helps you stay grounded by dividing your money into three clear categories: cash for now, income for soon, and growth for later. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Podcast Channel.

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A recent article in the Wall Street Journal captivated me with its blend of betrayal, eccentric characters, the contrast between opulence and collapse, and the modern-day parable of a crypto catastrophe. In addition to its spellbinding narrative, it reminded me of my mother’s advice to make your friends before you make your money. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education.

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Bitcoin recently hit another new all-time high just above US$124,000, reflecting a bull story that has matured from a niche tech narrative into a macro thesis with institutional support. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Foreign Currency.

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With the U.S. stock market hovering at levels some describe as ‘stretched’, economic indicators are flashing mixed signals, prompting some observers to raise the spectre of stagflation – a toxic brew of stagnant growth and persistent inflation. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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