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Given the ructions in markets lately – addressing current market conditions, sentiment and their drivers is helpful and warranted.

It was the depth and scale of U.S. President Donald Trump’s much-anticipated tariffs that caught investors by surprise, as well as the tariffs’ calibration to trade deficits and the ambiguity around U.S. willingness to negotiate swiftly. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Sales of new vehicles in Australia depict a clouded and muted picture. The market has faced its seventh decline in the last eight months, with February sales down 7.9 per cent compared to the same period last year. However, it’s important to note that the February 2025 figures represent the second highest February volume on record, surpassed only by last year. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Manufacturing.

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Last week I explored the bullish perspective of investing in gold. As promised, this week I will explore the viewpoints of several gold bears. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Video Insights.

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Liquidity is a concept critical to understanding investment markets.

Back in mid to late 2022, we wrote several posts on our blog and articles in The Australian, compelling investors to consider and pay attention to the very low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios at which equities were trading. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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From the first days of this blog, back in 2009/10, we have been writing about ARB Corporation (ASX:ARB), classifying it as one of the highest ‘A1’ quality companies listed on the ASX. Back in 2009, the share price was below $3.00 (and many thought it was on a high price to earnings (P/E) ratio then!). Today, ARB shares trade at nearly $40 dollars, and it’s paid out $7.62 in dividends since. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Small Caps, Stocks We Like.

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The debate about whether Australian retirees in pension phase (paying no tax) are better off in ASX-listed stocks, or the U.S. companies of the S&P 500 continues to rage.

Australian listed companies are known for their relatively high dividend payout ratios. It is estimated that, in aggregate, about 80 per cent of ASX 200 company profits are paid out as dividends. 

Part of the reason is that our tax system causes companies to accumulate franking credits that have zero value to them but huge value to retiree shareholders. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education.

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Could it be possible that the markets are tumbling because Trump and his team can’t add, or worse, lied to hide a warped ideology?

President Donald Trump’s administration has rolled out sweeping “reciprocal tariffs” targeting over 180 countries in a move that has sent shockwaves through global financial markets and trade networks. Announced with typical Trump fanfare in the White House Rose Garden on 4 April 2025, Trump wielded a chart (Table 1) to underscore his point, claiming his measures would level the playing field and end decades of the U.S. being “ripped off” by its trading partners. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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I recently met with a young investor and trader, who was just beginning their market journey. During our conversation, he noted he was currently biased towards a market correction but was waiting for a catalyst.

The idea that a catalyst is required for a stock market correction is a flawed one. Corrections can occur without an apparent trigger – just ask those people still debating the cause of the 1987 crash (also known as Black Monday), a severe unexpected stock market crash leading to a worldwide loss of ~US$1.71 trillion).

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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Qantas (ASX:QAN) has posted a significant rise in half-year profits, demonstrating continued momentum in the airline’s post-pandemic recovery. The company reported an underlying profit before tax of $1.39 billion, an 11 per cent increase compared with the same period last year. Statutory profits also climbed by 6 per cent, reaching $923 million. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.

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Telstra’s (ASX:TLS) latest half-year financial results, released yesterday, tell a story of modest gains, underpinned by cost control rather than broad-based expansion, raising important questions about the company’s path to sustainable growth. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.

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