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Overnight, U.S. President Trump backflipped on punitive global tariffs, bringing them down to a universal 10 per cent except for China, against which tariffs were raised from 104 per cent to 125 per cent. 

Equity markets breathed a sigh of relief but is the coast clear? Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets.

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Sales of new vehicles in Australia depict a clouded and muted picture. The market has faced its seventh decline in the last eight months, with February sales down 7.9 per cent compared to the same period last year. However, it’s important to note that the February 2025 figures represent the second highest February volume on record, surpassed only by last year. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Manufacturing.

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Australia’s aggressive pursuit of renewable energy, championed by the Teal independents and the Labor government, is sold as a path to cheaper electricity and a cleaner future. The promise is seductive: wind and solar will slash power bills while saving the planet.

Yet, recent events in Europe – most notably Spain’s massive blackout and Germany’s ongoing grid struggles – expose this narrative as dangerously naive. Forcing intermittent renewable energy onto aging grids without adequate investment in stability measures is a recipe for chaos, and this weekend, I suspect, Australia will vote to barrel down the same path. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Market commentary.

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Last week I explored the bullish perspective of investing in gold. As promised, this week I will explore the viewpoints of several gold bears. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Video Insights.

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The U.S is careening toward a potential recession, propelled by a dramatic escalation in trade barriers, including unprecedented tariffs on imports from China, one of its largest trading partners.

Economists believe the sweeping “Liberation Day” tariff initiative could trigger a sharp economic contraction by summer, and the fallout is already evident across corporate earnings, consumer behaviour, and global trade dynamics. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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Could it be possible that the markets are tumbling because Trump and his team can’t add, or worse, lied to hide a warped ideology?

President Donald Trump’s administration has rolled out sweeping “reciprocal tariffs” targeting over 180 countries in a move that has sent shockwaves through global financial markets and trade networks. Announced with typical Trump fanfare in the White House Rose Garden on 4 April 2025, Trump wielded a chart (Table 1) to underscore his point, claiming his measures would level the playing field and end decades of the U.S. being “ripped off” by its trading partners. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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The debate about whether Australian retirees in pension phase (paying no tax) are better off in ASX-listed stocks, or the U.S. companies of the S&P 500 continues to rage.

Australian listed companies are known for their relatively high dividend payout ratios. It is estimated that, in aggregate, about 80 per cent of ASX 200 company profits are paid out as dividends. 

Part of the reason is that our tax system causes companies to accumulate franking credits that have zero value to them but huge value to retiree shareholders. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education.

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I recently met with a young investor and trader, who was just beginning their market journey. During our conversation, he noted he was currently biased towards a market correction but was waiting for a catalyst.

The idea that a catalyst is required for a stock market correction is a flawed one. Corrections can occur without an apparent trigger – just ask those people still debating the cause of the 1987 crash (also known as Black Monday), a severe unexpected stock market crash leading to a worldwide loss of ~US$1.71 trillion).

Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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Electric vehicles (EVs) have been hailed as the future of transportation, promising a cleaner, greener alternative to traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Governments worldwide have pushed EV adoption through subsidies, tax credits, and ambitious targets, while car manufacturers have invested billions to electrify their fleets. However, announcements from major automakers, as well as recent data and surveys in the U.S., Australia, and Europe, suggest EVs may not be the wisest purchase for consumers today. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Manufacturing.

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It hasn’t been widely reported (which could, of course, mean I am about to repeat the common mistake of reading too much into a central banker’s utterances), but earlier in March, Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, dropped a subtle remark that may shed light on the central bank’s mindset. As the Federal Reserve heads into its meeting this week, Powell’s words may also carry weight for the unpredictable economic road ahead. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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