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With that caveat out of the way, I am reasonably confident we should expect greater volatility and lower returns in 2026. Let me explain why I think that’s a reasonable assessment.

Since 2022, I have suggested that investors maintain a bullish disposition.

This article was first published in The Australian on 04 December 2025. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press.

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Commonwealth Bank (ASX: CBA), under the guidance of CEO Matt Comyn, has once again proven why it’s considered the best Australian bank. Despite a muddy economic backdrop and fierce competition in the mortgage market, the bank’s half-year FY26 (1H26) results beat analyst expectations (again).

While the headline numbers were strong and will dominate today’s commentary, a more interesting story lies in the shifting dynamics of Australia’s largest lender. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Financial Services, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Stocks We Like.

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Would you ask a barber whether you need a haircut?

Amid the negative sensationalist media headlines – what Macquarie Chief Economist, Ric Deverell, dubs “click bait”– it’s crucial for investors to filter out the noise and focus on underlying economic and business fundamentals. Speaking on December 4, 2025, at an investor briefing for Macquarie clients, Deverell offered a clear, cautiously optimistic view for 2026, suggesting global growth might very well surprise to the upside, driving a positive outlook for risk assets. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Debt nuances

I just read the following sentence: “Graphic Processing Unit (GPU) rich clouds are now raising multi-billion-dollar debt with GPUs as collateral.”

It got me thinking… Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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On December 18, in a blog entitled Time Magazine Cover Curse, I wrote, “…Gracing the cover of the [TIME] mag isn’t a coronation but a harbinger of doom, because the moment a public figure has permeated the public discourse sufficiently to land the cover, the trajectory inevitably reverses.”

Politicians have suffered landslide defeats after being featured on the cover, as have business tycoons whose stocks plummet, and celebrities whose reputations are assassinated under sudden, intense scrutiny. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Economics, Investing Education, Market Valuation.

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In my latest article for Firstlinks, I reflect on why 2025 delivered another strong year for equities, supported by the continued combination of disinflation and positive economic growth – with much of the strength driven by enthusiasm around artificial intelligence (AI).

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Economics, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, On the Internet.

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I joined Sean Aylmer for Fear and Greed’s Summer Series to talk about high-frequency arbitrage, how these strategies work, and why they have become an increasingly attractive alternative for sophisticated investors. We discussed how arbitrage seeks to profit from volatility and pricing inefficiencies across global asset exchanges. Importantly, we also explored how this type of strategy can complement a diversified portfolio by providing returns that are largely uncorrelated to equity markets.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Digital Asset Funds Management, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Podcast Channel.

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I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to reflect on how markets closed out in 2025 and what may lie ahead in 2026. Last year was again dominated by artificial intelligence (AI) and the Magnificent Seven (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Nvidia and Tesla). However, with valuations now stretched amongst these technology leaders, there may be opportunities for investors beyond the headlines.  Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Market commentary, Small Caps, Stocks We Like, TV Appearances.

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Time Magazine has awarded the 2025 person of the year to…wait for it…a group of people. The architects of artificial intelligence (AI) have been nominated for this year’s cover.

Before the advent of digital magazines, billions were spent annually on buying physical magazines representing every topic and subculture known to man. And magazine cover trading became a contrarian way to invest. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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2025 has been an eventful year, with some strong returns – but what comes next? I joined Sean Aylmer from Fear and Greed for their Summer Series to break down the forces that shaped markets this year. Looking ahead to 2026, I explain why investors should expect higher volatility, limited future gains given today’s stretched valuations, and why rebalancing portfolios into alternative offerings that are uncorrelated to markets should be considered. 

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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