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In my video insight ‘How General Purpose Technology booms end”, last month, I spoke about the five stages of a GPT boom and the inevitable, sometimes violent, way they end. I suggested that while the latest GPT – Artificial Intelligence (AI) – is undoubtedly life-altering and ultimately structural, the commercial path to its adoption is governed by cyclicality and the cost of capital. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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I joined Sean Aylmer for Fear and Greed’s summer series to talk about the growth of private credit, why it has expanded so quickly, and what investors should look for when assessing these opportunities. We also discussed how private credit can complement a diversified portfolio, providing an income stream that is uncorrelated to equity markets. 

You can catch the full episode here: Why private credit is booming. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Investing Education, Podcast Channel.

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Goldman Sachs Research represents one of the largest stockbroking firms in the world.  So, it should come as no surprise that the investment bank has recently published its stock market outlook for the next decade, predicting an average annual return of almost eight per cent.

But if you’ve grown accustomed to smooth and steady gains, you may need to recalibrate your expectations, despite Goldman Sachs’ reassurances. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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With that caveat out of the way, I am reasonably confident we should expect greater volatility and lower returns in 2026. Let me explain why I think that’s a reasonable assessment.

Since 2022, I have suggested that investors maintain a bullish disposition.

This article was first published in The Australian on 04 December 2025. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press.

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53 positive months out of 54, 22.52% p.a. since May 2021

In this video, I provide an update on the October performance of Digital Asset Fund’s Management’s (DAFM) Digital Income Class. Despite significant volatility in Bitcoin – rising to record highs before sharply retracing – the fund continued to deliver steady results, returning 2.72 per cent for the month. Because the strategy is market-neutral and driven by high-frequency trading algorithms that capture price spreads rather than take directional cryptocurrency exposure, October’s turbulence created additional trading opportunities. The month reinforced the fund’s ability to generate consistent, uncorrelated returns irrespective of broader market noise. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Digital Asset Funds Management, Video Insights.

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Would you ask a barber whether you need a haircut?

Amid the negative sensationalist media headlines – what Macquarie Chief Economist, Ric Deverell, dubs “click bait”– it’s crucial for investors to filter out the noise and focus on underlying economic and business fundamentals. Speaking on December 4, 2025, at an investor briefing for Macquarie clients, Deverell offered a clear, cautiously optimistic view for 2026, suggesting global growth might very well surprise to the upside, driving a positive outlook for risk assets. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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As the February 2026 reporting season gets underway, attention turns once again to earnings as ASX-listed companies begin releasing their results. This period often brings heightened market activity, with share prices reacting swiftly to earnings surprises, guidance updates and outlook commentary.

The last two reporting seasons have brought increased volatility and, as a result, significant opportunities. With many companies reluctant to provide guidance amid an unstable geopolitical environment, the prospect of earnings surprises this reporting season is more pronounced. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.

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In my latest article for Firstlinks, I reflect on why 2025 delivered another strong year for equities, supported by the continued combination of disinflation and positive economic growth – with much of the strength driven by enthusiasm around artificial intelligence (AI).

Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Economics, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, On the Internet.

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Debt nuances

I just read the following sentence: “Graphic Processing Unit (GPU) rich clouds are now raising multi-billion-dollar debt with GPUs as collateral.”

It got me thinking… Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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As we farewell the shores of 2025 and sail into 2026, equity investors seem to be shrugging off fears of an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble and are instead betting on a growing U.S. economy, rate cuts, and a broadening of bullish sentiment beyond the AI leaders.

The consensus view is the U.S. economy is settling into a rate of growth that is more modest than last year’s, avoids a recession and could surprise to the upside. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation and employment data are generally seen as supportive of a Federal Reserve rate cut, even though, according to some economists such as Torsten Slock, two-thirds of inflation seems to be demand-driven. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets.

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