Search Results for: property
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Muted Returns
Russell Muldoon
January 16, 2014
In the early stages of 2012 – and in reaction to the challenges the Australian economy was potentially facing – the Reserve Bank of Australia adopted an aggressive easing bias towards monetary policy. What followed was a period of extremely aggressive interest rate cuts and the yield on Australia’s 10-year government bonds fell from 4.4 per cent to the historical low of 2.5 per cent just a few months later. Continue…
by Russell Muldoon Posted in Insightful Insights.
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2013… what a year!
Roger Montgomery
December 26, 2013
As we draw the curtains on 2013, we thought it would be interesting to look back at the three most popular stories from the year. They are… Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Warning. Warning. Crash Imminent?
Roger Montgomery
December 19, 2013
You have heard it dozens of times. Soothsayers, market commentators and prognosticators sharing tales of impending doom.
And all sorts of charts and variables are trotted out to explain why, how or when the market will crash.
A particular favourite of ours is what we call the ‘Overlay’. In the Overlay, a chart of the 1987, 2000 or 2007/08 stock market crash is displayed and then a chart of the current market is lined up against the original to demonstrate just how closely the two periods are mimicking each other. The insinuation is that the market will soon crash just as it did all those years ago. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights.
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Investing opportunities ahead
David Buckland
December 11, 2013
As 2013 draws to a close, David Buckland takes a look at yields and gives his view on CSL (CSL), Fleetwood (FWD), Westfield (WDC), Telstra (TLS), iProperty (IPP) and Onthehouse (OTH) in these highlights from Your Money Your Call, broadcast on Sky Business on 11 December 2013. Watch here.
by David Buckland Posted in TV Appearances.
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Will it float or sink?
Roger Montgomery
December 11, 2013
My kids all played this game at the Montgomery residence when they were very young. We’d line up all manner of items next to a bowl of water and the kids had to think about whether the item would float or sink. Heavy pieces of wood were always fun because despite their weight, they floated.
That surprised look must also be on the faces of those who purchased shares in some of the recent wave of floats. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.
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The real Sydney auction clearance rate was 49.9% not 83.7%
Roger Montgomery
November 30, 2013
There’s a very genteel debate going on over at Fairfax – and for once it’s not about what to do with the legacy business.
This time it’s about the relevance of those house auction clearance rates you see being reported and used to reflect the hype (or otherwise) in the property market at the weekend. And what else do we find? Well surprise, surprise, we discover real estate agents are salesmen not actuaries. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Property.
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A standout in AGM season
Russell Muldoon
November 27, 2013
In what was arguably the AGM season’s standout result, it was pleasing to read through the presentation by Ainsworth Game Technology Limited (ASX: AGI) and discover that much of the anecdotal evidence we had gathered a few weeks ago here largely proved reliable and correct. Continue…
by Russell Muldoon Posted in Companies.
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The bubble we have to have…
Roger Montgomery
November 23, 2013
Over the course of the last month or so we have been witnessing a coalescing of words, sentiment shifts and policy pronouncements that suggest a bubble is about to be engineered by central banks and governments. The idea that we are in a bubble is thus potentially extremely premature. I am personally becoming convinced that, notwithstanding a few bumps along the way, we may see the inflating of a massive stock market rally that may run hard until 2016. The US credit cycle appears to be only mid way through its typical 5-8 years and the likely Fed heir Janet Yellen is making all sorts of pronouncements suggesting the adjective ‘doveish’ used to describe her is an understatement. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights.
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The Montgomery view on stocks now
Russell Muldoon
November 14, 2013
In these highlights from Your Money Your Call, Russell Muldoon talks about the global economy, interest rates, property prices in Australia, and stocks Virgin Australia Holdings (VAH), CSR Limited (CSR), Wesfarmers Limited (WES) and Leighton Holdings Limited (LEI). Watch here.
by Russell Muldoon Posted in TV Appearances.
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Premature talk of bubble trouble
Roger Montgomery
November 14, 2013
First published in Cuffelinks newsletter on 8 November 2013
Amid the recent emergence of rising prices, all the talk of bubbles in stocks or in property is simply premature. We’ll leave US Treasury bonds and the US Federal Reserve out of this discussion until the Postscript and focus on Australia for now.
That is not to say that prices will not decline. They may fall, but any drop from current levels would not be due to the presence of a bubble, nor evidence of it bursting. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights.
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Aggressive UK acquisition strategy drives Slater & Gordon
Roger Montgomery
November 11, 2013
In the past year the Slater & Gordon (ASX:SGH) share price has doubled to $4.00, giving the company a market capitalisation approaching $800m. Specialising in personal injury insurance and litigation services including everything from asbestos and medical law to workers compensation law, Slater & Gordon has 69 offices in Australia. The company also has, we believe, strong medium-term prospects thanks to an aggressive acquisition strategy into the highly fragmented UK law industry. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Insightful Insights.
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Stick to the knitting
Roger Montgomery
November 6, 2013
We have discussed previously the ingredients required to invest successfully over the very long run. And it is encouraging that the two essential ingredients, the ability to value a business and understanding how the market works -particularly its bipolar nature and tendency to treat temporary events as permanent – can be taught. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Montgomery News and Updates.
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The status of the Australian stock market
Roger Montgomery
November 1, 2013
In these highlights from Your Money Your Call, broadcast on Sky Business, Roger Montgomery discusses how volatility is affecting the Australian stock market at the moment, upcoming IPOs, whether Australia is in a property “bubble”, and which stocks are cheap to buy right now. Watch it here.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in TV Appearances.
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Monadelphous: leader of the pack?
Roger Montgomery
October 28, 2013
Sometimes it’s easy to identify the source of competitive advantage that drives the performance of a great business. For example, it may be intellectual property supported by large R&D investments in the case of companies like Resmed or Cochlear; it may be network effects and a dominant market position in the case of businesses like REA Group or Carsales; or it may be ownership of long life, very low cost resources for a mining company. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Energy / Resources.
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Resetting the compass (even when times are good)
Russell Muldoon
October 16, 2013
For many investors, the sharemarket seems daunting and impossible to understand. One day it’s down on fears that interest rates might rise or that the US will default. The next it’s up on confirmation that they have or on speculation that the debt ceiling will be raised.
In our experience, confusion amongst investors exists, at least partly because of the human tendency to complicate matters. That, and the fact that many experts being replied upon simply end up being wrong. The tendency to make simple things difficult coupled with a plethora of daily news to be distracted by ensures obfuscation rather than clarity is the environment in which investors find themselves operating in. Of course, it doesn’t need to be this way. Continue…
by Russell Muldoon Posted in Insightful Insights.
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Residential investment property fails simple valuation test
Roger Montgomery
October 10, 2013
In this article for Cuffelinks, Roger discusses the Australian residential property market. Read here.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in On the Internet.
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Dear Property Investor…Your Best Warning!
Tim Kelley
October 2, 2013
The Australian residential property market has had a spring in its step recently. Auction clearance rates have been healthy, and rising prices have prompted media commentary on the possibility of an emerging housing “bubble”.
I’m no property expert, and so it may be wise to avoid putting an oar in on this debate, but let’s put wisdom aside for a moment and think about whether the application of value investing principles can add anything to a discussion on house prices. Continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Property.
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Is $0.80+ unreasonable for BGL?
Russell Muldoon
September 19, 2013
Bigair (BGL) is a small business with a market capitalization of just $126m, so the chances are you’re unlikely to be familiar with the story. But perhaps importantly, you don’t need to be a rocket scientist to quickly get a handle on the business’s underlying drivers which we think can be broken out into two core elements. Continue…
by Russell Muldoon Posted in Companies.
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Don’t bet the house on it
Tim Kelley
September 9, 2013
With record low interest rates helping to focus investor attention on the property market, and James Packer directing some surplus cash into US online real estate investments, one little-known company that has received some renewed attention recently is Onthehouse Holdings Limited (OTH). Continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Companies, Insightful Insights.
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Enthusiastic for property?
Roger Montgomery
September 4, 2013
In this interview with Ticky Fullerton on ABC’s The Business, Roger talks about whether he’s enthusiastic about the property market in Australia – and whether value investors should be.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Property.
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