Search Results for: thorn group
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Genworth’s profit slide is a signal of more housing pain to come
Roger Montgomery
February 9, 2017
Mortgage insurer Genworth (GMA:ASX) this week reported a 10.9% drop in net profit on the back of a 21% jump in bad loans. The company also warned of an apartment glut and lower prices. Meanwhile, financial counsellors are reporting rising calls from people suffering mortgage stress. Are these worrying signs? We think so. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Property.
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When directors sell, should you sell too?
Tim Kelley
February 9, 2017
When directors buy or sell shares in their company, most people believe they are sending a strong signal to the market about the firm’s prospects. But how strong is the correlation between director trades and share price movements? And should you buy or sell because a director has too? We did some research to get closer to the truth. Continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Investing Education.
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How competing firms can prosper by solving the Prisoner’s Dilemma
Scott Shuttleworth
February 7, 2017
The Prisoner’s Dilemma provides a framework for understanding how to strike a balance between competition and cooperation. It’s possible for rival firms in a competitive market to solve the Prisoner’s Dilemma, without collusion, and for their mutual benefit. Let’s look at how it can be done. Continue…
by Scott Shuttleworth Posted in Market commentary.
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When is quality ever cheap?
Roger Montgomery
January 31, 2017
All investing is value investing. If price is what you pay, value is what you receive. Your job as an investor this year — and every year — is to pay a lower price than the value you get.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.
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Are small and mid-cap stocks good value?
Roger Montgomery
January 27, 2017
Let me start by making something clear. The best returns will not come from the large-cap blue chips that so many baby boomers are invested in. They are likely to come from the stocks that have been beaten up the most in recent months.
Continue…by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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After its price plunge, is McMillan Shakespeare a bargain?
Scott Shuttleworth
January 25, 2017
Since hitting a high of around $15 in mid-2016, McMillan Shakespeare (ASX: MMS) has fallen to around $11. At this price, and with a demonstrated ability to consistently earn high returns on equity, it seemed like a good candidate for inclusion in our portfolios. So we conducted some due diligence. The outcome is a must-read for all would-be investors. Continue…
by Scott Shuttleworth Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick.
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Investing in 2017 and beyond
Roger Montgomery
December 17, 2016
If you are concerned about your returns, you should brace for an end of the residential construction boom. You should also be very cautious about the excessive prices of high-yielding stocks (those paying dividends that are unlikely to grow), and you should be most enthusiastic about high-quality mid cap and small cap stocks that have been punished recently with share price declines of up to 50%.
Continue…by Roger Montgomery Posted in Property.
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Where to find the best returns for 2017
Roger Montgomery
December 12, 2016
Humans are notoriously bad at picking turning points. We tend to believe the future will look like the recent past. That’s why so many investors make decisions about the future by looking in the rear view mirror. However, I believe the best returns over the next few years will come from buying high quality, high growth companies – many of which are now at beaten-down prices.
Continue…by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Buyer beware: rising rates could send low-growth big caps into reverse
Roger Montgomery
December 9, 2016
After an extended period in the doldrums, interest rates are finally on the rise. As I’ve written before, this could have a momentous effect on asset prices. And most at risk will be those who have accumulated immense debt, and investors who have bought shares in low-growth big caps. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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At a knockdown price, REA presents REAlly great value
Scott Shuttleworth
December 5, 2016
Like many high quality firms, REA Group’s (ASX: REA) share price has rerated significantly over the past few months, dropping from over $65 to around $52. Despite this, we think REA’s prospects have continued to improve, and as discussed recently on the blog we strongly believe this presents a great buying opportunity for long-term investors. Continue…
by Scott Shuttleworth Posted in Companies.
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Despite being hit for six, the signs are good for APN Outdoor
Roger Montgomery
December 1, 2016
APN Outdoor is a leader in outdoor advertising. The company has over 50,000 high-impact sites in attention-grabbing locations across Australia and New Zealand. But recently, like many other high-quality mid and small caps, its share price was severely smashed. So, what’s going on, and is it time to snap up shares at these beaten-down prices? Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.
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The bellwether resource service stock
David Buckland
November 28, 2016
Monodelphous Group Limited (ASX: MND) is the bellwether company for the Australian resource service sector. After seeing the MND share price decline 80 per cent from $28.50 to $5.50 in the three years to early-2016, it has more than doubled this year, indicating investors appetite to switch into cyclical stocks as the expectation for resource projects proceeding has increased with the recovery in commodity prices. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Energy / Resources.
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VitaGroup Update
Roger Montgomery
November 25, 2016
We understand many investors have been watching the recent share price action of Vita Group closely. Many have expressed dismay at the slump following ‘news’ that Telstra was renegotiating its terms with its licencees – something that Telstra does every quarter and ‘more than 50 times’ with VTG. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.
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Make no mistake, rising bond yields are bad for assets
Roger Montgomery
November 24, 2016
Right now, many investors are probably patting themselves on the back, having profited from a booming property market and the makings of a resurgent share market. But there is an elephant in the room – rising bond yields. And they could bring the party to an abrupt end. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Isentia’s drop an overreaction
Roger Montgomery
November 23, 2016
Isentia recently caused the market price for its shares to stumble by more than 25%. So is this an overreaction? Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.
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Asia’s middle classes stoke a digital revolution
David Buckland
November 21, 2016
America is still an economic and military powerhouse. But when Donald Trump is inaugurated as America’s 45th president in January 2017, he could find it’s not so easy to win a trade war with Asia’s rising economies, and their growing middle classes. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets.
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Are airlines now extraordinary businesses?
Roger Montgomery
November 16, 2016
Warren Buffett is famous for his quips about the folly of investing in airlines, and once labeled the sector a ‘death trap’ for investors. But now he has changed his tune. What could have prompted this? And does it mean that airlines are now an extraordinary investment? Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Why the rise in bond rates has hammered some good businesses
Stuart Jackson
November 8, 2016
A move up in bond rates, like we’ve seen over the last two months, inevitably feeds into the valuations of growth stocks. Add in any concerns about the near term outlook and the share price movement can be really extreme.
by Stuart Jackson Posted in Global markets.
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I am calling a short sell on Australian residential apartments
Roger Montgomery
November 4, 2016
If you wait for the swallow to sing, spring will already be over. In other words, waiting for the data to prove a trend has changed may be more expensive than you’d like. And while there is plenty of mounting data to suggest that property prices are heading for a big fall, there are also less obvious signals. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Property.
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Look beyond the panic selling: Healthscope is a great long-term story
Roger Montgomery
November 4, 2016
Last month, Healthscope (ASX:HSO) announced it had experienced slower-than-expected hospital revenue growth for the quarter. The announcement prompted a wave of selling, with the share price falling around 30%. Does this present a buying opportunity? Given the metrics of the private hospital industry, we think so.
Continue…by Roger Montgomery Posted in Health Care, Stocks We Like.
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