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2025: Another bullish year ahead for equities?
Roger Montgomery
January 2, 2025
In this article for Firstlinks I discussed whether 2025 will be another bullish year for equities. Despite warnings of an imminent market correction, the rally in equities, particularly driven by the Magnificent Seven tech giants, persists, supported by positive economic growth and moderating inflation. While some indicators, like soaring valuations and speculative behavior, suggest caution, history shows that such conditions often don’t signal an impending crash. As long as disinflation and growth continue, there’s little reason to expect a sharp downturn. While speculative excesses are evident in certain sectors, the broader market remains robust, and 2025 could potentially see another strong year. However, future risks, including geopolitical tensions and global debt concerns, should not be ignored.
You can read the full article here: 2025: Another bullish year ahead for equities?
by Roger Montgomery Posted in On the Internet.
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MEDIA
The bulls have been charging but how much energy do they have?
Roger Montgomery
December 30, 2024
As we know, the current sharemarket rally could pause or retreat on the back of a shift in sentiment in late 2025 or in 2026.
Massive demands on liquidity from the refinancing of about US$70 trillion of global debt taken up when interest rates were zero would leave less liquidity to sustain the rally in shares, bitcoin and everything else. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Market commentary.
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MEDIA
Fear + Greed: What does 2025 hold for investors?
Roger Montgomery
December 27, 2024
I had the opportunity to join Sean Aylmer on the Fear + Greed podcast to reflect on my predictions for 2024 and discuss what lies ahead in 2025. This year, despite widespread forecasts of a recession, the stock market performed strongly. A combination of disinflation and positive economic growth created a favourable environment for innovative companies with pricing power. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Podcast Channel.
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MEDIA
December ABC Nightlife – Finance
Roger Montgomery
December 19, 2024
This week, I had the pleasure of joining Phil Clarke on ABC Nightlife to reflect on the surprising performance of the share market in 2024 and to discuss my outlook for 2025. At the start of the year, many investors and advisers anticipated modest returns following a strong 2023. However, the market defied expectations, delivering even greater gains despite being described by some experts as a “melt-up.” During the episode, I shared insights into why I believe markets may not be as overvalued as they appear, along with what else is on the horizon.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.
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ABC Statewide Drive – What’s ahead for 2025
Roger Montgomery
December 16, 2024
In my recent interview on ABC Statewide Drive with Jess McGuire, I shared insights on the outlook for the stock market in 2025. We discussed how focusing on the combination of disinflation and positive economic growth can be key drivers of success, rather than getting caught up in the noise from the broader financial commentary. You can listen to my segment from the 1:45-minute mark here. ABC Statewide Drive – What’s ahead for the stock market in 2025
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.
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MEDIA
Ausbiz – The “Euphoriameter”
Roger Montgomery
December 13, 2024
Yesterday, I appeared on ausbiz to share my thoughts on the current bull market, including the potential for a correction in January or a broader pullback next year. We discussed how disinflation and economic growth have historically supported innovative companies with pricing power. I also touched on sentiment indicators like the “euphoriameter”, highlighting that while these can signal extremes, the S&P 500 has historically continued to rally after past peaks. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in TV Appearances.
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Ausbiz – Risks, opportunities, and the outlook for equities in 2025
Roger Montgomery
November 29, 2024
Yesterday, I joined Ausbiz to share my thoughts on the outlook for Australian equities heading into 2025. We discussed how the current environment of economic growth and disinflation supports markets, but also the risks posed by rising valuations and global debt levels, which now sit at $312 trillion. With significant refinancing due in the next couple of years, tight liquidity could create challenges. I also talked about the opportunities in high-quality small-cap stocks, both locally and globally, and why innovative companies with pricing power remain a bright spot in the market.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Small Caps, TV Appearances.
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MEDIA
November ABC Nightlife – Finance
Roger Montgomery
November 28, 2024
Earlier this week, I joined Phil Clark on ABC Nightlife to discuss the latest in finance. We explored the rise of Bitcoin and crypto ETFs, including their increased accessibility and the potential implications of President-elect Donald Trump’s vision for the U.S. as a leading repository for Bitcoin. I also highlighted the drawbacks of relying on charting and technical analysis compared to dollar cost averaging. We also addressed the challenges of navigating financial advice in the era of “finfluencers,” and where to find reputable information. Lastly, I shared insights into Warren Buffett’s recent decisions and what these moves reveal about Berkshire Hathaway’s strategy, while answering some of your questions along the way.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.
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Clear and present danger to sharemarkets posed by Republican presidencies
Roger Montgomery
November 25, 2024
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, In the Press.
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November ABC Statewide Drive – Money Matters
Roger Montgomery
November 1, 2024
Yesterday afternoon, I joined Jess McGuire on ABC Statewide Drive for the Money Matters segment, where we discussed the critical role of company boards during times of crisis. We explored how comnpany boards should approach challenging situations. The conversation highlighted the responsibilities of board directors to act swiftly and responsibly, balancing the interests of shareholders, managers, and the broader community. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.
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Immediately after Donald Trump’s election as the next president of the United States, market analysts began exploring historical correlations to assess potential implications for investors.