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I joined Paul Turton on ABC Newcastle Mornings to discuss how Middle East tensions and fuel shortages could impact markets, noting that while a large share of oil supply is at risk, prices have been more contained than in past crises. I highlighted that the key risk is how long the conflict lasts, with a prolonged disruption likely to put pressure on growth, drive up costs and weigh on sentiment.

Listen to the segment from 33:06 here: ABC Newcastle Mornings

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive last week to unpack what a recession really means and whether Australia is already experiencing one on a per-capita basis. I highlighted how rising interest rates, energy costs and government policy pressures are squeezing households, while strong migration is masking weaker individual economic conditions, and warned that without structural reform Australia risks drifting into stagflation, where growth slows but inflation remains elevated. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio.

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I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss how markets could respond when the war ends, noting a short conflict may trigger a relief rally while a prolonged one could see markets fall further before recovering. I also highlighted that beyond near-term volatility, investors should be paying closer attention to the growing risks around the U.S. debt trajectory.

With interest rates now exceeding economic growth and global demand for U.S. Treasuries softening as countries shift toward gold, the cost of funding is rising and the risk of a debt spiral is increasing. While that presents a longer-term concern, I also see potential upside, particularly if an artificial intelligence (AI)-driven bubble unwinds and creates opportunities to buy high-quality businesses at compelling valuations. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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I joined Philip Clark on ABC Nightlife to discuss the shift toward a more volatile market environment in 2026. With inflation likely rising again, growth slowing and oil prices climbing, the key conditions that supported recent equity gains are fading. We also explored potential war scenarios involving Iran and how they could impact markets, inflation and interest rates.

Given this backdrop, I highlighted the need to rethink portfolio construction, with private credit emerging as a potential alternative offering attractive income with lower volatility. We also touched on rising fuel costs, price pressures on consumers, and broader structural challenges in Australia’s economy. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio.

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The news that an Iranian drone reportedly struck a U.S.-linked commercial oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz has done more than just spike the price of oil; it’s arguably shattered the fragile market equilibrium we’ve seen since the start of the year. And arguably, as intended, it has distracted everyone from the Epstein files.

At the time of writing Brent and WTI crude were up $US15 to $US107 a barrel. The Nikkei plummeted 4.5 per cent, and U.S. futures have cratered by as much as two per cent. So, why has a single drone strike erased billions in equity value across the globe?

This article was first published in The Australian on 09 March 2026. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Global markets, In the Press, Market commentary.

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I joined ABC News to discuss the market reaction to the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Surging oil prices and concerns about supply disruptions have rattled global markets, prompting investors to reassess risks and reduce exposure to equities.

Watch here: ABC The Business. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Manufacturing, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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This morning on ABC Newcastle Mornings with Paul Turton, I discussed how markets respond to geopolitical shocks and why investors should keep their focus on underlying fundamentals. While conflicts can cause short-term volatility, history shows markets often recover as investors anticipate recovery spending and economic growth.

Beyond the headlines, markets are still grappling with elevated valuations, the potential disruption from artificial intelligence, and weaker economic signals such as the recent U.S. jobs report. I also noted that prolonged conflict could lift the cost of oil, fertiliser, plastics and energy, which can flow through to higher prices across the broader economy. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio.

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Yesterday afternoon I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss how the conflict in the Middle East is affecting global markets. While headlines have focused on oil and petrol prices, we also discussed the potential impact on industries such as airlines, tourism and energy-intensive manufacturing. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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Today on Ausbiz with Juliette Saly, I discussed the growing hype around humanoid robots. While many companies promise household robots within a decade, leading roboticist Rodney Brooks believes major technical hurdles remain before they can perform meaningful work in homes or industry. 

We explored the limitations of bipedal design, the extraordinary dexterity of the human hand, and the safety challenges robots face when interacting with people. For investors, it is a reminder that technological excitement often runs ahead of reality, and markets can price in adoption long before the technology is ready. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Technology & Telecommunications, TV Appearances.

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However, as the tide of cheap liquidity recedes, we’re seeing a typical correction as investors retreat from riskier assets.

Investors must now navigate a treacherous confluence of shifting narratives just as global liquidity is structurally changing. The dangers are building.

This article was first published in The Australian on 26 February 2026. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press.

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