Market commentary
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Hello 2023
David Buckland
January 3, 2023
Many commentators point to the twelve months to December 2022 as being one of the toughest annual periods for the performance of the share market and the bond market for several decades. This was led by the severe sell-off in Government Bonds, aggressive tightening of most Central Banks’ official cash rate and the 33.1 per cent decline in the US-tech heavy Nasdaq Index. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Market commentary.
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- POSTED IN Economics, Market commentary
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Think like a bargain hunter
David Buckland
December 22, 2022
In his latest memo, Oaktree’s Howard Marks wrote “In my 53 years in the investment world, I’ve seen a number of economic cycles, pendulum swings, manias and panics, bubbles and crashes, but I remember only two sea changes. I think we may be in the midst of a third one today.” continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Investor risk aversion sees IPOs plummet in 2022
Roger Montgomery
December 20, 2022
Rising interest rates have dimmed the risk appetite of many investors. And it’s not just crypto, NFTs and speculative ‘growth’ stocks that have taken a hit. This calendar year also saw global IPO proceeds drop markedly. For example, in the U.S., IPO proceeds fell 95 per cent from 2021. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Why 2023 could be a good year for investors
Roger Montgomery
December 19, 2022
Without a doubt, 2022 has been a tough year for equity investors. As I write, the S&P500 is down around 16.5 per cent, and the ASX200 is down around 5.5 per cent. But don’t despair – 2023 could see a return to sharemarket gains. Because history suggests that, after a negative year, the odds improve of a better subsequent year. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Market narrative to pivot from peak inflation to recession
David Buckland
December 16, 2022
Twelve months ago, official cash rates sat at record lows and only one English-speaking Central Bank – the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) – had commenced the tightening process in response to increasing inflationary expectations. The rapidly rising commodity prices coinciding with the war in the Ukraine (commenced 24 February 2022) finally got the attention of the English-speaking Central Banks and they followed the RBNZ typically with 8 or 9 “interest rate increases” over the balance of 2022. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.
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How Macquarie sees the outlook for Australia and the U.S.
Roger Montgomery
December 15, 2022
In two recent blogs, we outlined the views of Goldman Sachs strategists on the Australian and U.S. economic outlook, and the implications for investors. In this blog, we turn to the views of Macquarie Bank. Their forecasts for the ASX100 are particularly noteworthy. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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How Goldman Sachs sees the outlook for the U.S. economy
Roger Montgomery
December 14, 2022
In a recent blog, we outlined the views of Goldman Sachs strategists on the Australian economic outlook, and the implications for investors. In this blog, we turn to the U.S. Given Goldman Sachs’s close relationship with the U.S. Federal Reserve, their views are certainly worth reading – particularly in relation to the likely direction of interest rates. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary.
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How Goldman Sachs views the Australian economy
Roger Montgomery
December 13, 2022
Our small caps team recently met with strategists from Goldman Sachs and Macquarie Bank. We were keen to hear how these two investment banks view near-term trends for asset classes, and the Australian and U.S. economies. In this blog, we summarise the views of Goldman Sachs. A forthcoming blog will summarise those of Macquarie Bank. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Signs of change in China
Michael Gollagher
December 12, 2022
In the past week we have seen an ever-growing number of news stories around China and the changing tide in their stance towards COVID-19. Since the early days of the pandemic, they have pursued a policy of Zero COVID. No matter the economic or social damage this caused, this was their policy. continue…
by Michael Gollagher Posted in Market commentary.
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Will the RBNZ lift cash rates again?
David Buckland
November 23, 2022
To remind readers, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) was six months ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in commencing their tightening interest rate cycle on 6 October 2021. On eight occasions, the New Zealand official cash rate has been tightened to 3.5 per cent, and a ninth tightening is expected at RBNZ’s next meeting today, Wednesday 23 November. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.
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