Market commentary

As Agentic artificial intelligence (AI)’s threat to jobs spreads ever wider, the concept of Universal Basic Income (UBI) is shifting from theory to, frighteningly, a central pillar of Silicon Valley’s vision for our future.

Love him or hate him now, OpenAI’s Sam Altman was the first to publicly discuss a UBI, announcing in early 2016 that Y Combinator would fund a multi-year, large-scale UBI study to prepare for an automated future. Elon Musk followed later that year, saying in a CNBC interview that UBI is “going to be necessary” because “there will be fewer and fewer jobs that a robot cannot do better.” continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I know everyone, at the moment, is focused on the Middle East, oil prices and inflation, and some are also considering the second and third-order effects on, for example, plastic and food supply chains. But while investors are distracted by geopolitical tensions, another, potentially even sharper, transition in artificial intelligence (AI) is occurring that began at the end of last year and is accelerating.

For a while, Large Language Models (LLMs) like Gemini, ChatGPT, Grok and their ilk captured our imagination. AI felt like a sophisticated parlour trick – you ask a question and receive an answer, a more efficient web search, an online adviser or even a chat companion. And even now, the majority of those who use AI are still employing it this way. But that’s all about to change. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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I was fascinated by this morning’s Australian Financial Review (AFR) article, which pointed out markets appear to be disconnected from reality in the Middle East.

Comparing the current and more disruptive war in the Middle East to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which was far less disruptive to energy markets, the author notes:

“Back in 2022, Brent crude peaked at $US139 a barrel, compared with $US102 now. Back then, European gas peaked at €339 a megawatt hour, compared with €51 now. Back then, the price of urea, an oil by-product vital in the production of fertilisers, peaked at $US910 a tonne, compared with $US660 now. Back then, the S&P 500 fell 25 per cent peak-to-trough. Today, the index is down just 5.5 per cent from its January record high.” continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary.

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When investors are confident, greater risk is taken, greater debt levels are serviced, and greater liquidity is prevalent. And the opposite is also true.  The response to a loss of confidence is to reduce risk, pay down debt, and “batten down the hatches”. Liquidity can quickly get tight.

When the ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence survey for the week to Sunday 22 March 2026 was released, I thought it was worth highlighting, given consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since records began in 1973 (1). continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Insightful Insights, Market commentary.

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I realise the war in the Middle East and fuel prices are dominating headlines and investors’ current concerns, however, there will come a time when markets and conversation will return to those topics that made headlines before Trump triggered the latest conflict in the Middle East. 

One of those topics is the disruption to employment expected to be wrought by Artificial Intelligence (AI), especially now that AI has itself moved from prompting Large Language Models (LLMs) to deploying Agentic AI. The question on my mind is whether, assuming a large shift in employment roles, that shift will be smooth or unstable. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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I joined Paul Turton on ABC Newcastle Mornings to discuss how Middle East tensions and fuel shortages could impact markets, noting that while a large share of oil supply is at risk, prices have been more contained than in past crises. I highlighted that the key risk is how long the conflict lasts, with a prolonged disruption likely to put pressure on growth, drive up costs and weigh on sentiment.

Listen to the segment from 33:06 here: ABC Newcastle Mornings

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio.

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Throughout history, there’s been a tidal quality to the flow of capital because there is a tidal quality to the human condition. Every new technology, after welding on its inventors, attracts its devotees who, believing – often correctly – the tech will change the world, become the pied pipers for many more investors. If they’re successful, they generate a groundswell of financial, government, and social support that converge to drive their vision and their wealth, often to heights that natural laws cannot support. 

That intersection of innovation and capital is a phenomenon that has long fascinated. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive last week to unpack what a recession really means and whether Australia is already experiencing one on a per-capita basis. I highlighted how rising interest rates, energy costs and government policy pressures are squeezing households, while strong migration is masking weaker individual economic conditions, and warned that without structural reform Australia risks drifting into stagflation, where growth slows but inflation remains elevated. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio.

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I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss how markets could respond when the war ends, noting a short conflict may trigger a relief rally while a prolonged one could see markets fall further before recovering. I also highlighted that beyond near-term volatility, investors should be paying closer attention to the growing risks around the U.S. debt trajectory.

With interest rates now exceeding economic growth and global demand for U.S. Treasuries softening as countries shift toward gold, the cost of funding is rising and the risk of a debt spiral is increasing. While that presents a longer-term concern, I also see potential upside, particularly if an artificial intelligence (AI)-driven bubble unwinds and creates opportunities to buy high-quality businesses at compelling valuations. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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In a fascinating Wall Street Journal (WSJ) article, published this week, the U.S. state of Wyoming reportedly bought 2,312 ounces of gold in December after passing a law requiring the state’s investment portfolio to add precious metals as a hedge against economic turmoil.

According to the WSJ, “Among [Wyoming’s] worries are rising federal debt, inflation and a weak U.S. dollar – but also more extreme calamities, according to Bob Ide, a Republican state senator and lead sponsor of the ‘Wyoming Gold Act.”

For me, however, it was Ide’s comment about a U.S. default that piqued my interest, and should yours. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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