Technology & Telecommunications

While most currently consider bubbles a dangerous precondition for a stock market crash, they can also be better navigated by appreciating they’re a necessary step on the road to humanity’s advancement.

As I have noted previously, there’s a myriad of definitions for asset bubbles, but most fall into two camps: those that measure overvaluation and those that observe the behaviours and conditions that typically give rise to it.
This article was first published in The Australian on 20 December 2025. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Investing Education, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Time Magazine has awarded the 2025 person of the year to…wait for it…a group of people. The architects of artificial intelligence (AI) have been nominated for this year’s cover.

Before the advent of digital magazines, billions were spent annually on buying physical magazines representing every topic and subculture known to man. And magazine cover trading became a contrarian way to invest. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Debt nuances

I just read the following sentence: “Graphic Processing Unit (GPU) rich clouds are now raising multi-billion-dollar debt with GPUs as collateral.”

It got me thinking… continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Last night, on ABC’s 7.30 news report with Michael Rowland, I discussed whether surging investment in artificial intelligence (AI) is pushing large technology companies to unsustainable valuations. I noted that investors often become highly enthusiastic when new technologies emerge that are believed to reshape the world, but history shows this can inflate expectations. In the case of AI, the scale of spending by tech hyperscalers is immense, and to justify it they would need extraordinary levels of revenue.

Watch the full segment here: ABC News – Are AI investors causing tech companies to be overvalued?

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Market commentary, On the Internet, Technology & Telecommunications, TV Appearances.

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From South Sea to AI: Artificial Intelligence (AI) companies seem to be asking investors the question: Just how long can growth be built on the question of future returns – and a productivity revolution – that are by no means guaranteed?

The South Sea Bubble of 1720 remains the archetype of a financial mania driven by exotic new ‘tech’, the promise of monopoly returns, and limitless public imagination.

At first, the idea of comparing the South Sea bubble to an AI boom 305 years later seemed far-fetched. AI is not, for example, a Ponzi scheme being promoted by those who fail or refuse to publish financials or forecasts of how profits will be made. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Sir Isaac Newton is enshrined in history as the saint of rational thought. He decoded the laws of gravity, invented calculus, and parsed the rainbow. Yet, in the spring and summer of 1720, the arguably most intelligent man in the British Empire made a series of financial blunders, recorded for posterity, and so catastrophic they have become a cautionary legend in economic and investment history.

Newton’s entanglement with the South Sea Company serves as a stark reminder: in the face of collective delusion and market mania, even a genius can be led astray. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Recently, the BBC interviewed Sundar Pichai, the CEO of Alphabet, Google’s parent. With all the claims the artificial intelligence (AI) boom is a bubble – something I have noted cannot be known until after the event – I wonder whether the BBC was motivated to go to the source. 

Describing the surge in AI funding as a remarkable period, yet one marked by certain unrealistic expectations, Pichai warned viewers of BBC News that no business would escape unscathed if the AI boom collapses. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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With 30 per cent of the U.S. S&P 500 index trading at more than 10 times sales, and 13 per cent of the S&P 500 by index weight trading at 20 times price-to-sales (P/S) (a level that now surpasses the tech boom of 1999-2000), we’ll take a break this week from commenting further on market valuations and leave it to you to decide whether it’s wise to be fully invested in equities, or diversified.

This article was first published in The Australian on 21 November 2025.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Technology & Telecommunications.

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U.S. Senator from Vermont, Bernie Sanders, and Professor Geoffrey Hinton – considered the ‘Godfather of AI’ – pointed out last week at Georgetown University that artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics aren’t inherently bad, but the people pushing this technology revolution are the richest people in the world. They suggest that Musk and Bezos, for example, aren’t staying up at night worrying about ordinary people. They aren’t worrying about working people. They’re not spending hundreds of billions of dollars to extend life expectancy, address global warming, shorten the workweek, and guarantee high-quality health care. They simply want more wealth and more power. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I joined Angus Randall and Julia Bergin from ABC The world to discuss why, despite artificial intelligence’s (AI’s) enormous long-term promise, early investors often face the highest risks. History shows that major technology advancements usually go through a boom–bust cycle, which is why caution – not blind optimism – is essential right now.

Catch the segment here: Calls to boost Australian investment in AI. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.

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