Technology & Telecommunications

Recently, the BBC interviewed Sundar Pichai, the CEO of Alphabet, Google’s parent. With all the claims the artificial intelligence (AI) boom is a bubble – something I have noted cannot be known until after the event – I wonder whether the BBC was motivated to go to the source. 

Describing the surge in AI funding as a remarkable period, yet one marked by certain unrealistic expectations, Pichai warned viewers of BBC News that no business would escape unscathed if the AI boom collapses. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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With 30 per cent of the U.S. S&P 500 index trading at more than 10 times sales, and 13 per cent of the S&P 500 by index weight trading at 20 times price-to-sales (P/S) (a level that now surpasses the tech boom of 1999-2000), we’ll take a break this week from commenting further on market valuations and leave it to you to decide whether it’s wise to be fully invested in equities, or diversified.

This article was first published in The Australian on 21 November 2025.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Technology & Telecommunications.

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U.S. Senator from Vermont, Bernie Sanders, and Professor Geoffrey Hinton – considered the ‘Godfather of AI’ – pointed out last week at Georgetown University that artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics aren’t inherently bad, but the people pushing this technology revolution are the richest people in the world. They suggest that Musk and Bezos, for example, aren’t staying up at night worrying about ordinary people. They aren’t worrying about working people. They’re not spending hundreds of billions of dollars to extend life expectancy, address global warming, shorten the workweek, and guarantee high-quality health care. They simply want more wealth and more power. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I joined Angus Randall and Julia Bergin from ABC The world to discuss why, despite artificial intelligence’s (AI’s) enormous long-term promise, early investors often face the highest risks. History shows that major technology advancements usually go through a boom–bust cycle, which is why caution – not blind optimism – is essential right now.

Catch the segment here: Calls to boost Australian investment in AI. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.

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In this final part of my two-part series on General Purpose Technology (GPT) booms, I explain how these cycles typically end. History shows that even world-changing technologies – from cars to commercial flight –  delivered poor outcomes for most early investors. This is because technology trends eventually run into the reality that customers don’t spend money in a straight line (their demand rises and falls), and also the concept of “creative destruction” (wherein new technology leads to the obsolescence of outdated products). These cycles are exactly why it’s important to diversify and regularly rebalance your portfolio. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications, Video Insights.

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NVIDIA delivered another blowout quarter (Q3 2025 – ended 26 October, 2025 – released 19 November, 2025), significantly beating Wall Street expectations, and for some, partially alleviating (perhaps only temporarily) concerns about an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble. Demand for AI infrastructure remains extremely strong, with the new Blackwell graphic processing unit (GPU) architecture powering Nvidia’s latest high-performance chips for AI and Data Centres ramping faster than anticipated. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I joined Phil Clark on Nightlife to explain why the market’s sharp fall may reflect growing doubts about the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. I argued that while AI is a powerful General Purpose Technology (GPT) that may change the world (like cars or the internet), it might not be as lucrative as investors hope. Today we’re seeing super-charged share prices, huge data-centre spending, complex vendor-financing deals and big losses at firms like OpenAI. Whether this proves a correction or a bust is unknowable, so my message to investors was simple: regularly rebalance and diversify beyond the AI winners.

Tune into the full episode from 4:49 here: ABC Nightlife Finance 

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.

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In this week’s video insight, I look at the dynamics behind major technology booms – from steam trains and commercial flight to the internet and now artificial intelligence (AI). In Part 1 of this two-part series, I outline the typical signs of a bubble: including soaring share prices, circular deals between companies, rising sales on credit, and financial engineering that makes growth look stronger than it truly is. We’re seeing many of these patterns in today’s AI boom. In Part 2, I’ll explain how these booms have typically unwound. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Technology & Telecommunications, Video Insights.

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Investors must understand that correctly predicting artificial intelligence (AI) technology will change the course of humanity, even if for the better, does not automatically translate to desirable investment returns.

General Purpose Technologies (GPT) of the past, such as the automobile, electricity, commercial flight, steam locomotion and TV, have all changed the course of human history and yet more than a thousand car manufacturers have disappeared from the U.S. and none exist today that are profitable and have not been bailed out by government or private equity. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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On November 30, 2022, the world marvelled at the release and conversational prowess of OpenAI’s ChatGPT. What the world might have missed, however, was the subtle shift that began rippling through the U.S. economy.

What started as a viral tech demo – capable of drafting emails, coding snippets, and even poetry – escalated into a full-blown revolution in large language models (LLMs) and artificial intelligence, now described as the fourth industrial revolution. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Technology & Telecommunications.

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