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I joined Angus Randall and Julia Bergin from ABC The world to discuss why, despite artificial intelligence’s (AI’s) enormous long-term promise, early investors often face the highest risks. History shows that major technology advancements usually go through a boom–bust cycle, which is why caution – not blind optimism – is essential right now.

Catch the segment here: Calls to boost Australian investment in AI. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I joined Sean Aylmer from Fear and Greed’s Summer Series to discuss the strengthening performance of Australian small caps, why quality matters, and where opportunities are emerging. I shared a number of small-cap examples across different sectors to illustrate these points, including ZIP (ASX:ZIP), a buy-now-pay-later business growing strongly in the United States; Megaport (ASX:MP1), a key technology provider connecting data centres where a recent acquisition is yet to be fully recognised by the market; Codan (ASX:CDA), which manufactures gold detectors and continues to benefit from solid demand supported by elevated gold prices; and MA Financial Group (ASX:MAF), a private credit manager seeing strong inflows as investors seek more reliable income.

The key takeaway from this episode was the importance of being selective and backing quality businesses.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Podcast Channel, Small Caps, Stocks We Like.

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As investors, if we’re intellectually honest, we’re bound to be wrong a few times more than we would like. And the longer the investment career, the higher the accumulated mistakes pile up. So how do successful investors survive them and continue to build on their success?

In holiday mode, I was re-reading some vintage Graham and Dodd, and what struck me was how minimal the damage from their mistakes would be, thanks to the safeguards built into their approach. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Today on Ausbiz I joined Juliette Saly to discuss why artificial intelligence (AI) remains a powerful long-term thematic but is now exhibiting classic bubble warning signs. We need to question whether the exponential share-prices, circular vendor-financing deals, and the huge capital expenditure (CapEx) that we are seeing today, are sustainable.

While AI will undoubtedly transform the world, the economics underpinning today’s spending frenzy look increasingly stretched, with key leaders unable (or unwilling) to explain how trillion-dollar commitments will be funded. In times like these, disciplined rebalancing is a smart approach.

Watch the episode on Ausbiz here: What Nvidia could be telling us about an AI bubble Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss how Black Friday has evolved from a U.S. curiosity into Australia’s biggest retail event, now eclipsing even Boxing Day. I explained how the surge in discounting can pull Christmas spending forward and boost sales – but how it can also put pressure on retailer margins. I explored how this day can provide useful clues about consumer sentiment, inflation and overall economic activity. We also touched on the risks of shoppers leaning too heavily on credit, the seasonal jobs created by these major sales events, and why the growing list of endless promotions has effectively turned the year into one long discount cycle.

Tune into the episode from 1:42:25 here: ABC Statewide Drive Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Radio.

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Today on Ausbiz with Juliette Saly, I explained that while low valuations in 2022 set the stage for strong returns, we’re now at the opposite end of the spectrum, with very high price-to-earning ratios (P/Es), elevated enthusiasm (especially around artificial intelligence) – and growing economic and geopolitical uncertainty, all of which point to lower returns and greater volatility in 2026. We’re also seeing signs of speculative excess in the AI thematic, from soaring private valuations to rising constraints around energy and water that are likely to create speed bumps for the sector.  Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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Today on Ausbiz I joined Sue Lannin to discuss the striking similarities between the 2011 iron ore boom and today’s artificial intelligence (AI) investment frenzy. Back then, surging optimism and over-investment in mining services ended abruptly when supply outstripped demand. I’m seeing echoes of that now in AI, with forecasts of trillions in annual spending that don’t appear sustainable or supported by realistic revenue. With companies like Meta and Microsoft already under pressure, I believe we’re nearing the end of this boom as investors start questioning whether the numbers truly add up.

Watch the episode on Ausbiz here: What does the AI Boom have to do with iron ore?

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in TV Appearances.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to reflect on how strong global markets have been over the past three years (particularly in the U.S.) while noting that future returns are likely to be more volatile. I explained that the powerful mix of falling inflation, solid growth, abundant liquidity and enthusiasm around artificial intelligence (AI) that drove markets since late 2022 is now changing, with inflation proving stickier, the jobs market losing momentum and liquidity conditions shifting as we head into 2026. 

Tune in from 1:46:40 here: ABC Statewide Drive Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary, Radio.

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I joined Sean Aylmer for Fear and Greed’s Summer Series to discuss whether the powerful rally driven by artificial intelligence (AI) may now be approaching it’s peak. Drawing on lessons from past technology booms, I explained that although investors can correctly predict that a technology (in this case, AI) will change the course of humanity – it doesn’t automatically translate to great investment returns. The issue becomes apparent when a theme is perceived as structural, when in fact it is cyclical. We can see this in AI stocks where valuations have been inflated to a point that cannot be sustained. 

While no one can call the exact timing of an unwind, signs suggest the best part of the run for many AI-linked stocks may be behind us. For investors, perhaps they should consider rebalancing their portfolios after strong equity gains and spread capital more evenly across opportunities beyond the AI theme.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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Hear from the team Polen Capital as they discuss how having a diverse team with different backgrounds, work experience, and viewpoints can enrich the decision making process. By operating on a growth mindset – by encouraging continuous improvement and collaboration with one another – Polen Capital is able to identify the best investment opportunities available. Continue…

by Polen Capital Posted in Polen Capital.

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