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One of the most frequently asked questions by investors following Trump’s election victory is: what sectors will do well? While much remains unknowable about Trump’s second term, his “promises made, promises kept” statement during his victory speech suggests not all is a mystery.  Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Market commentary.

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Why do we have a housing crisis? We’re told it’s because there isn’t enough housing, so the price to purchase or rent is too high for young people. There’s no denying the truth of those two answers. One might, however, choose to dig a little deeper: Why do we not have enough houses in Australia, and why are prices so high? Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick.

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Since 2022, we have predicted that small cap stocks, especially those representing innovative businesses with pricing power, would do well in an environment of disinflation and positive economic growth.  Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Small Caps.

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Every day, I am met with articles quoting commentators telling me that the market is high and, therefore, on the precipice of a correction. Let’s get one thing straight – markets don’t fall just because they are high. They can stay high and continue upwards for a long time. It is also a mistake to believe that a catalyst is required to cause the market to crash. Investors, to this day, debate the trigger for the 1987 crash. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics.

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The Magnificent Seven (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla), which rose by an average 111 per cent over calendar 2023, continued the strong upward trajectory, increasing a further 63 per cent, on average, over calendar 2024.
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by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.

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In today’s dynamic financial landscape, private credit has emerged as a compelling alternative for investors seeking attractive yields with minimal volatility. But as the asset class grows, understanding the details and risk is crucial. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Whitepapers.

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At the beginning of 2024, investors and commentators were almost unified in their belief that after a solid 2023, more modest returns were likely. An article in the Australian Financial Review (AFR) at the beginning of the year described the market thus: “An inexplicable and self-perpetuating melt-up that veteran analysts unanimously agree defies the fundamentals is powering the broader index to all-time highs.” Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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“Buffett screams sell!” “Buffett sounds alarm!” They were the headlines that greeted me recently, about Oracle of Omaha, when I opened my news app to read up on what others thought about the rally in markets since 2022 – a rally that anyone following would know we frequently and repeatedly explained would transpire, and a rally that has accelerated following the election of Donald Trump as the next U.S. President. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Economics.

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Socialism is a political and economic theory of social organisation that advocates for the means of production, distribution, and exchange to be owned or regulated by the community. Socialists believe the government is the community apparatus that should control all aspects of the economy. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics.

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As the market rises, a couple of things often occur. First, a conga line of naysayers and cassandras emerge. The earliest doom-and-gloomers point to rational reasons why the market should not be rising and why it should be going down as they earlier but incorrectly predicted. The second bunch point to how much the market has already risen and then lean on a bunch of ratios to show that the market has fallen the last time (insert ratio here) was this high. As the market continues to climb, the next bunch of people point to a ‘bubble’ and warn of an impending crash. Eventually, equities markets correct – you can count on it – but the timing is far less reliable and predictable.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.

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