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The traditional 60/40 portfolio approach is proving less effective at balancing risk and return in today’s environment, particularly as the historical relationship between equities and bonds has shifted. Where bonds once tended to rise when equities fell, both asset classes have at times moved in the same direction during periods of persistent inflation and policy uncertainty, weakening diversification benefits. At the same time, elevated equity valuations, increased concentration in major indices and higher government debt levels have contributed to a more volatile and policy-sensitive market backdrop. As a result, some investors are reassessing how capital is allocated and how diversification is achieved. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Whitepapers.

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With public markets more volatile there’s a growing focus on investments that can deliver regular income with less reliance on market movements.

Australian private credit stands out because it’s built more conservatively and with a clear focus on protecting investor capital, supported by a robust regulatory framework and the transparency of the Personal Property Securities Register (PPSR), which clearly defines lender priority. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Whitepapers.

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There’s been a conga line of prognosticators who have forecast falling house prices. All of them have faded into history as house prices have grown since the 1970s, first at the rate of inflation, then at the rate of wage growth, then at the rate of Artemis II launch.

Recently, Money.com.au contracted Primara Research to produce a forecast of Aussie house prices for 2030 under a variety of interest rate, supply, and unemployment scenarios. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Property.

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The gigawatt IPOs

Ahead of a multi-billion-dollar Australian data centre Initial Public Offering (IPO), many local investors are taking a particular interest in the sector, swatting up on everything they can learn. Of particular interest are the latest developments at Datacentre hopeful Fermi America.

In the age of Agentic Artificial Intelligence (AI), building the world’s largest data centre sounds like a license to print money. But as Fermi America shareholders are currently discovering, even having the former U.S. Secretary of Energy as a co-founder and the Trump name on the door doesn’t make concrete pour any faster. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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China has supported a ceasefire in the Middle East and JD Vance made his first pilgrimage to meet with senior Iranian leaders. And while Donald Trump’s exit would inevitably be messy, and riddled with false starts, it seems reasonably safe to assume the process of ending the conflict began last month.

It seems the market received the brief. The ASX 200 is up almost 6 per cent from its March 23 lows, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are up 11 per cent and 17 per cent, respectively, from their lows on March 30.

The remaining question for investors is what happens next.

This article was first published in The Australian on 24 April 2026. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.

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In a deal announced today, Magellan Financial Group (ASX: MFG) will buy Barrenjoey Investment Bank. For long-term investors, it could provide the opportunity to invest in another ASX-listed investment bank. Could it be the next Macquarie Bank?

Of course, there is a long way to go from Barrenjoey’s $1.6 billion valuation to Macquarie’s $76.3 billion market capitalisation, so this blog is limited to examining today’s deal without commenting on valuation or predicting share prices. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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The news that an Iranian drone reportedly struck a U.S.-linked commercial oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz has done more than just spike the price of oil; it’s arguably shattered the fragile market equilibrium we’ve seen since the start of the year. And arguably, as intended, it has distracted everyone from the Epstein files.

At the time of writing Brent and WTI crude were up $US15 to $US107 a barrel. The Nikkei plummeted 4.5 per cent, and U.S. futures have cratered by as much as two per cent. So, why has a single drone strike erased billions in equity value across the globe?

This article was first published in The Australian on 09 March 2026. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, Global markets, In the Press, Market commentary.

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With the prospect of a full-scale war in the Middle East increasing, with bond yields heating up, and with famed short seller Michael Burry increasing his short position against the U.S. SOXX Semiconductor Index, could this month be the month that investors will look back on with regret, wishing they’d diversified?

It’s a midterm election year in the U.S.

Let’s begin with the U.S. Midterm elections in mind. Did you know the midterm year is historically the worst year of the four-year presidential cycle for stocks? Some analysts suggest it’s because of something called the “midterm discount.” Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Insightful Insights.

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The upcoming listing of Firmus on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) is being pitched as a generational opportunity to capitalise on the artificial intelligence boom, yet a closer examination of the company’s artificial intelligence (AI) Factory model reveals a series of architectural and financial cracks that prospective investors should scrutinise. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.

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In this video insight I challenge the idea that Labor’s federal budget is delivering genuine intergenerational fairness, arguing instead that it overlooks the fundamental drivers of Australia’s housing pressures. While Labor focuses on taxing investors and reshaping incentives, the reality is that strong migration and limited housing supply continue to fuel demand, keeping vacancy rates tight and affordability under strain. I also question whether shifting the burden onto “mum and dad” investors addresses the real issue, suggesting that broader structural reform and a more honest assessment of policy trade-offs are needed. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Property, Video Insights.

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