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NVIDIA delivered another blowout quarter (Q3 2025 – ended 26 October, 2025 – released 19 November, 2025), significantly beating Wall Street expectations, and for some, partially alleviating (perhaps only temporarily) concerns about an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble. Demand for AI infrastructure remains extremely strong, with the new Blackwell graphic processing unit (GPU) architecture powering Nvidia’s latest high-performance chips for AI and Data Centres ramping faster than anticipated. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Technology & Telecommunications.

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In this blog post, I (finally) take the focus off the artificial intelligence (AI) boom/bubble. Instead, I want to look at whether there are other factors investors should be considering when it comes to time to rebalance portfolios, and as 2025 concludes and 2026 commences.

First – and granted this one’s a bit of fun – the Santa Claus rally. Is there any evidence that such a thing exists? Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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The father of a field of mathematics known as fractal geometry, Benoit Mandelbrot, in his fantastic book, The (Mis)behaviour of Markets, observed that market price movements, unlike the smooth curves assumed in traditional financial models, are jagged and irregular, meaning that large price swings are more frequent than expected, and periods of high volatility can be followed by more high volatility. His work provides a more realistic framework for understanding and modeling risk, noting also that volatility in markets tends to cluster.

In my experience, I’ve observed those volatility clusters often mark turning points in markets. To be clear, not all periods of heightened volatility are turning points, but almost all turning points are accompanied by greater volatility. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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As we kick off 2026, I turned to UK-based Crossborder Capital’s latest global liquidity update by Michael Howell, noting booms and bubbles cannot occur without ample liquidity. The artificial intelligence (AI) boom was born of liquidity. Without ample central bank accommodation, we would not even be talking about AI, perhaps not even whispering about it except in a few university laboratories. 

According to Howell, the 2026 financial landscape is a stage set for drama. His latest view on the prospects for crypto and risk assets in 2026 argues that while monetary inflation is here to stay as governments’ go-to fix for fiscal/budget woes, a looming downswing in global liquidity could produce turbulence for risk assets. Drawing from his analysis of cycles, correlations, and historical patterns, he likes positions in gold and cryptocurrencies as essential hedges – but advises investors to buy on dips. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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National Australia Bank (ASX: NAB) delivered its full-year 2025 (FY25) results on 6 November, posting cash earnings of $7.091 billion – essentially flat on FY24 and a touch below the market’s $7.18 billion consensus.

The share price sold off about two per cent on the day, and we believe the relatively soft trading since is due to investors focusing on two things:

1. Higher-than-expected loan impairment charges (up 14 per cent to A$833 million), driven mainly by missed payments, a handful of individual business banking exposures and some unsecured retail lending stress, and
2. Relatively flat earnings and final dividend 85 cents per share, bringing the full-year dividend per share (DPS) up one cent to 170 cents, fully franked.

Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Financial Services.

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Let’s state the obvious right at the outset: No one knows for certain if the equity market will crash.

The reality of investing is that we can rarely identify a bubble until after it has burst, which means we can never be sure when we are inside one. However, with that necessary disclaimer in place, I am reasonably confident that investors should prepare for a shift in 2026. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.

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Back in October, I examined the emerging trend of interest rate cuts across the Western world, looking at why they were occurring and how different economies were responding. Since then, rate cuts have continued in several countries. In this update, I return to the same six economies (Australia, the U.S., the UK, Europe, Canada, and New Zealand), incorporating more recent inflation expectations and labour-market data to assess what these developments may signal for 2026.
Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary.

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As we turn the page on 2025, it is a useful time to step back and reflect on what shaped markets over the year just passed. In this article, I review the key themes that influenced global equities, interest rates, commodities, and currencies, highlighting where investors were rewarded, where conditions became more challenging, and what these developments may mean as we look ahead. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular.

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According to a survey by Finder and, separately, modelling from investment and annuities firm Challenger, Australians are being haunted. Not in their homes, mind you, but in their bank accounts. The ghost, however, isn’t inflation; it’s the distant and diminishing finish line for what’s considered ‘financial peace of mind.’ Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

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According to Google, Matt Stoller is a prominent American writer, researcher, and anti-monopoly advocate, known for his work at the American Economic Liberties Project and his popular Substack newsletter, BIG, which focuses on market power, antitrust, and the war against monopolies. He’s a former policy advisor and a key figure in the modern anti-monopoly movement, advocating for breaking up large corporations and promoting competition, drawing support from across the political spectrum. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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