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Looking at the artificial intelligence boom through Nvidia’s results
Roger Montgomery
September 9, 2025
When it comes to the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, few events command as much attention as Nvidia’s quarterly earnings calls. With so much riding on the boom enduring, including Nvidia’s $US4.15 trillion market cap, analysts and traders understandably dissect every nuance – from the precise wording of forward guidance to the subtle inflections in CEO Jensen Huang’s voice. They’re looking for clues about whether excitement or caution lies ahead or is presently justified. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Polen Capital, Stocks We Like.
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Are small-cap stocks poised for a comeback?
Roger Montgomery
September 15, 2025
The equity bull market has been tough for small company stocks and their investors. The current decade started out with promise. After the short, sharp pandemic bear market in 2020, small cap stocks significantly outpaced the tech-fuelled S&P 500 Index during the post-pandemic bull market ending in December 2021. This was partly because the artificial intelligence (AI)-Tech darlings hadn’t garnered the momentum and euphoria required to concentrate flows of capital and drive the media narratives that produced their immense popularity and stock-market leadership. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Small Caps.
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Could the Federal Reserve’s pivot from quantitative tightening spell trouble for stocks?
Roger Montgomery
October 21, 2025
Outgoing U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent remarks have sparked debate. Speaking at the National Association for Business Economics conference on October 14, Powell hinted that the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) long-running quantitative tightening (QT) program – its methodical unwinding of the balance sheet bloated by pandemic-era stimulus – may be “coming into view” for an end.
While perceived as a relief for many equity investors, halting QT might not actually be the good news equities investors are hoping for. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Foreign Currency, Global markets.
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A lesson for billionaires
Roger Montgomery
September 8, 2025
A recent article in the Wall Street Journal captivated me with its blend of betrayal, eccentric characters, the contrast between opulence and collapse, and the modern-day parable of a crypto catastrophe. In addition to its spellbinding narrative, it reminded me of my mother’s advice to make your friends before you make your money. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education.
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The looming spectre of stagflation
Roger Montgomery
September 11, 2025
With the U.S. stock market hovering at levels some describe as ‘stretched’, economic indicators are flashing mixed signals, prompting some observers to raise the spectre of stagflation – a toxic brew of stagnant growth and persistent inflation. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Hidden in the sands: Iluka’s rare earth revival
Sean Sequeira
October 22, 2025
At face value, Iluka Resources (ASX:ILU) is best known as a mineral sands producer. However, the market continues to undervalue the hidden strategic and financial assets embedded across its diversified portfolio. With a current market capitalisation of over A$3 billion, Iluka trades below the implied value of its tangible holdings alone – ~A$1 billion in mineral sands inventory, ~A$1.3 billion in rare earths concentrate feedstock (potentially greater than A$2 billion Net Present Value (NPV)) and a A$450 million equity stake in Deterra Royalties (ASX:DRR) – therefore ascribing very little value to the core mineral sands business. Continue…
by Sean Sequeira Posted in Companies, Stocks We Like.
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Are liquidity and deflation risks emerging? One economist is worried
Roger Montgomery
September 10, 2025
Investors are debating a number of scenarios. One is that Trump will install enough cronies on the board of the U.S. Federal Reserve that rates will be cut as many as five times in the next year. Supporters believe this could be incredibly bullish for markets, especially equities. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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Is there a stock market bubble? Here are the warning signs
Roger Montgomery
October 22, 2025
During a boom, warnings of bubbles and crashes are swept under a rug woven with proclamations such as “we’ve entered a multi-year bull market” and “there’s so much money on the sidelines waiting to invest”.
This article was first published in The Australian on 06 October 2025. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.
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Celebrating another milestone – 96 positive consecutive monthly returns, 9.55% p.a. since inception
Roger Montgomery
September 9, 2025
Montgomery Investment Management recently celebrated the 8th anniversary of the Aura Private Credit Income Fund (the Fund), and its 96 consecutive positive monthly cash distribution, delivering a compound net return of 9.55 per cent per annum since inception in August 2017.* Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group.
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The power of Private Credit
Roger Montgomery
September 12, 2025
In today’s dynamic financial landscape, and with public market volatility constantly rising, investors are increasingly seeking opportunities that strike a balance between solid returns and stability and diversification. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Investing Education.
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The world is volatile. Your financial future doesn’t have to be. Explore our private credit funds here.










By now, every investor has heard the bubble warning. Yet, when markets are soaring on optimistic expectations for future growth, high prices seem entirely reasonable. Indeed, and somewhat worryingly, in the midst of a boom, high prices validate the optimism.