Commonwealth Bank (ASX: CBA), under the guidance of CEO Matt Comyn, has once again proven why it’s considered the best Australian bank. Despite a muddy economic backdrop and fierce competition in the mortgage market, the bank’s half-year FY26 (1H26) results beat analyst expectations (again).

While the headline numbers were strong and will dominate today’s commentary, a more interesting story lies in the shifting dynamics of Australia’s largest lender. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Financial Services, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Stocks We Like.

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Former CEO, public speaker and author, Jay Grewal once said, “When it comes to the final nail in your coffin, it doesn’t matter if it’s dull or sharp, it’ll still hold, because a lifetime of prior nails have helped seal that coffin shut.”

In what may prove to be merely another accumulated nail in the coffin of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, the narrative on Wall Street shifted dramatically last week as the tech-driven optimism that has fueled the market for years hit a psychological and structural barrier. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Foreign Currency, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss how the AI trade has shifted from hype to reality. Adoption is proving more cyclical than expected, customers will not pay any price for AI tools, and data centre rollouts face delays from regulation and power constraints. At the same time, higher inflation, rising debt and the end of ultra-low rates are putting pressure on valuations. Software as a Service (SaaS) businesses are being repriced, and sectors like real estate and travel are also starting to feel the impact, prompting investors to reassess risk.

Tune into the full episode here: Ausbiz – Has tech run its course? Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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Last year, I posted a blog entitled ‘But Nothing’s Changed’, describing how the artificial intelligence (AI) bubble and market boom could end. I explained how investors will realise that even though AI technology – hailed as the 4^th Industrial Revolution – will change the course of human history, it probably won’t do so tomorrow. And therefore, share prices were at risk of setbacks because there will be commercial bumps (delays in data centre builds, changes in interest rates, shortages of energy and water, and not all companies can win) along the way to an AI ‘utopia’. While timing a change in sentiment is impossible, the hype surrounding general-purpose technologies, including AI, makes such a change inevitable. It’s always been so. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Manufacturing, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Having returned to work after a little rest and respite, I was recently confronted, nay, berated, by headlines about Labor’s deal to slash borrowing costs for electric vehicles (EVs) as it scrambles to meet climate targets.

While I was away, I saw the chart in Figure 1 and immediately realised the futility of our efforts to influence the global climate, concluding that Labor’s schemes appear to be driven by ideology rather than evidence. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Manufacturing, Market commentary.

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On December 18, in a blog entitled Time Magazine Cover Curse, I wrote, “…Gracing the cover of the [TIME] mag isn’t a coronation but a harbinger of doom, because the moment a public figure has permeated the public discourse sufficiently to land the cover, the trajectory inevitably reverses.”

Politicians have suffered landslide defeats after being featured on the cover, as have business tycoons whose stocks plummet, and celebrities whose reputations are assassinated under sudden, intense scrutiny. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Economics, Investing Education, Market Valuation.

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On statewide drive with Jess Maguire, I explained that recent market volatility reflects investors reassessing some big assumptions, particularly after Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next U.S. Federal Reserve chair.

Many investors had been expecting lower U.S. interest rates, so the nomination caught markets off guard and forced a reversal of those bets. That led to sharp falls in gold and silver, higher bond yields, and weaker share prices. While precious metals may recover over time, I see the bigger influence on sharemarkets as the gradual unwinding of the artificial intelligence (AI) trade. For Australia, stronger U.S. growth can support some companies, but persistent inflation risks and policy uncertainty mean investors are becoming more cautious and re-evaluating risk.

Listen from 1:44:55 here: ABC Statewide Drive. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary, Radio.

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