Dear Minister,

I am writing to urge a critical re-evaluation of the Australian Government’s 82 per cent renewable target for 2030 (part of your Powering Australia plan) and its long-term trajectory toward a near-100 per cent intermittent grid. While the ambition for a low-carbon future is shared, the 2026 global energy landscape provides a stark warning: the “free fuel” nature of wind and solar does not translate to lower consumer bills. In fact, as penetration increases, system-wide costs are already accelerating. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources.

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The news that an Iranian drone reportedly struck a U.S.-linked commercial oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz has done more than just spike the price of oil; it’s arguably shattered the fragile market equilibrium we’ve seen since the start of the year. And arguably, as intended, it has distracted everyone from the Epstein files.

At the time of writing Brent and WTI crude were up $US15 to $US107 a barrel. The Nikkei plummeted 4.5 per cent, and U.S. futures have cratered by as much as two per cent. So, why has a single drone strike erased billions in equity value across the globe?

This article was first published in The Australian on 09 March 2026. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, Global markets, In the Press, Market commentary.

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With the International Energy Agency’s 32 member countries agreeing to release 400 million barrels of oil, the largest ever since its creation in the 1970s, to lower crude prices from the war with Iran, it might inspire some investors to believe the threat to markets has been assuaged. But at the same time, Iran has attacked approximately 20 commercial vessels in or near the Strait of Hormuz so far.

The Strait is now part of the Middle East war’s frontline as Iran seeks to inflict maximum economic pain on the world in response to U.S.-Israeli strikes on its territory. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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The Trump administration’s decision to initiate a wide-scale military campaign against Iran, recently coined Operation Epic Fury, can be viewed through a number of lenses.  Some might say the strikes have been framed by Washington as a multifaceted necessity for global and domestic security. Others may simply say, the justifications for the strikes keep changing. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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The traditional 60/40 portfolio approach is proving less effective at balancing risk and return in today’s environment, particularly as the historical relationship between equities and bonds has shifted. Where bonds once tended to rise when equities fell, both asset classes have at times moved in the same direction during periods of persistent inflation and policy uncertainty, weakening diversification benefits. At the same time, elevated equity valuations, increased concentration in major indices and higher government debt levels have contributed to a more volatile and policy-sensitive market backdrop. As a result, some investors are reassessing how capital is allocated and how diversification is achieved. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Whitepapers.

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I have often joked that billionaire Ray Dalio, the founder of hedge fund Bridgewater, has predicted 15 of the last 3 recessions. In other words, far more than transpired.

It’s worth remembering the late Charlie Munger’s observation about forecasts: The only thing one needs to do to be a successful forecaster is to forecast often. 

Dalio is certainly a frequent prognosticator.

I can tell you, from painful personal experience, that trying to accurately predict a complex system like the global economy and financial system is nearly impossible, and it’s made more difficult by the fact that investors respond unpredictably even to the same scenarios presented at different times. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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I joined ABC News to discuss the market reaction to the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Surging oil prices and concerns about supply disruptions have rattled global markets, prompting investors to reassess risks and reduce exposure to equities.

Watch here: ABC The Business. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Manufacturing, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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This morning on ABC Newcastle Mornings with Paul Turton, I discussed how markets respond to geopolitical shocks and why investors should keep their focus on underlying fundamentals. While conflicts can cause short-term volatility, history shows markets often recover as investors anticipate recovery spending and economic growth.

Beyond the headlines, markets are still grappling with elevated valuations, the potential disruption from artificial intelligence, and weaker economic signals such as the recent U.S. jobs report. I also noted that prolonged conflict could lift the cost of oil, fertiliser, plastics and energy, which can flow through to higher prices across the broader economy. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio.

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