Search Results for: property
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Is investing in a furniture retailer ahead of a recession a bad idea?
Roger Montgomery
May 26, 2023
While stocks have climbed the proverbial wall of worry, most investors are anticipating a recession either later this year or in the first half of 2024. Such is the extent of recessionary expectations, derivative investors are predicting at least three rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve or just over 100 basis points of cuts to the Fed Funds rate. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary.
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An option for seeking regular income in a volatile world
David Buckland
May 25, 2023
In this week’s video insight David discusses how investors seeking regular income should consider the Aura High Yield SME Fund and the Aura Core Income Fund. As the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have tightened their official cash rate over the past year, we have seen the monthly payments of the Aura fund’s jump from around 0.60 per cent per month towards 0.80 per cent per month. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Video Insights.
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Not safe to re-enter still shark-infested (retail) waters
Roger Montgomery
May 24, 2023
Since rates commenced rising, we have been tracking the consumer closely, waiting for the inflection point where inflation and higher mortgage commitments meet the end of government financial support and savings dry up. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary, Editor's Pick.
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REA Group continues to deliver for long-term investors
Roger Montgomery
May 17, 2023
Since listing in 1999, the share price of REA Group (ASX:REA) – Australia’s leading online property portal – has risen from around 50 cents to around $140. So you’d have been far, far better investing in REA than in the property market that it serves. REA continues to be one of the highest quality businesses on the ASX, and a slightly underwhelming third-quarter trading update has not changed my opinion of the company’s prospects. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Property, Stocks We Like.
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March quarter update on the Polen Capital Global Small and Mid Cap Fund
Polen Capital
May 5, 2023
On the back of an unprecedented, macro-driven environment in 2022, the first quarter of 2023 has proven no less volatile. While plenty of uncertainty remains, particularly surrounding economic growth, the trajectory of interest rates, and the subsequent impact on financial markets, global equity markets started the year in positive territory. Continue…
by Polen Capital Posted in Polen Capital.
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Three transport stocks we like
Roger Montgomery
May 3, 2023
In this week’s video insight Roger discusses why calendar year 2023 could be a good year for investors. Disinflation has always been positive for stocks, particularly innovative growth stocks. And guess what? We’re in a disinflationary phase right now. Roger shares three transport companies that we currently have a positive view on including Transurban (ASX:TCL), Auckland International Airport (ASX:AIA) and Alliance Aviation Services (ASX:AQZ). Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Stocks We Like, Video Insights.
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Barrenjoey issues its economic outlook – and it’s all a bit grim
Roger Montgomery
April 24, 2023
Recently, our small-cap team listened to Barrenjoey Capital’s chief economist, Jo Masters, discuss the prospects for the Australian economy. In brief, Masters forecasts the economy to slow rapidly and unemployment to rise to five per cent, with a recession the most probable outcome. She also foresees persistent inflation, which will force the RBA to hold interest rates at the current level until May 2024. If she’s right, investors are in for interesting times ahead. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.
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The Aura High Yield SME Fund receives a “Very Strong” rating from Foresight Analytics
David Buckland
April 11, 2023
The Aura High Yield SME Fund recently received a “Very Strong” Investment Rating from Foresight Analytics, indicating a “very strong conviction” Aura “can deliver a risk-adjusted return in line with the investment objectives of the Fund.” And given its “Complex” designation, I thought it valuable to reiterate some of the more insightful points in the report. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Aura Group.
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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand wrong foots economists…again
David Buckland
April 5, 2023
One way to reduce inflationary expectations is for the Central Bank to aggressively lift their official cash rate to a level whereby the countries’ consumers are in enormous pain, thereby crunching the economy. And with today’s 0.5 per cent tightening to 5.25 per cent, the 11th since 6 October 2021, that is exactly what the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) had in mind. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.
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Let down by bonds? Private debt is worth a look
Roger Montgomery
March 10, 2023
For all the doom and gloom being proffered by various analysts it might surprise you to learn the Australian economy is actually growing. And it grew 2.7 per cent over the last year. Sure, the rate of growth might be slowing, but we’re still growing. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education.
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Hardly normal conditions for Harvey Norman
Roger Montgomery
March 6, 2023
For big-ticket household items, established retailer Harvey Norman (ASX:HVN) is a bellwether company, offering insights into consumer behaviour and retail conditions, particularly in Australia. The company recently released its first-half results, and reactions were mixed. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary.
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Why you shouldn’t worry about ‘what comes next’
Roger Montgomery
February 28, 2023
Lately, I’ve seen a number of media reports pondering if world economies – and equity markets – are headed for a soft, hard or no landing. To me, this kind of talk is a bit of a distraction. Because, as a long-term investor, the objective is still the same: to buy quality companies at good prices. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Aura Private Credit: Letter to investors 24 February 2023
Brett Craig
February 24, 2023
Given this week’s quiet data release cycle, we thought we would explore some methods of funding that can be used by lenders we work with and to give context to where we participate in capital markets. Continue…
by Brett Craig Posted in Aura Group.
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I was late to the party, but “I’ve got to contain inflation”
David Buckland
February 22, 2023
“I’ve got to contain inflation. I’ve got to convince the community that we’re serious about that. That’s our job and its unpopular and I accept that”. Philip Lowe, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.
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If you are an income investor, it pays to think long-term
Roger Montgomery
February 22, 2023
The past year has seen a distinct switch in investor focus from growth to yield. The irony, of course, is that many so-called ‘dividend stocks’ can be long-term wealth killers. And that’s why we prefer quality businesses – like CSL – which can grow both their market value, and their dividends, over time. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Investing Education.
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The silver lining in higher rates
Roger Montgomery
February 21, 2023
Financial media is replete with stories observing the fastest increase in interest rates in recent memory, the end of the declining interest rate era, how the fastest rise in short-term rates is inverting the yield curve (2-year bond yields higher than 10-year bonds) and predicting a recession, rising rates are causing the property market to collapse, and how causal inflation is responsible for it all and the financial destruction of many peoples’ lives. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group.
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Why I don’t think this is a dead cat bounce
Roger Montgomery
February 20, 2023
With equity markets steaming ahead, there’s no shortage of people calling this a ‘dead cat bounce’ and, by implication, predicting another market correction. History, however, suggests that 2022 was simply an isolated poor year for markets, and that we have now returned to ‘normal programming’. If I’m right, then 2023 could be a good year for investors. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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The behavioural science of markets
David Buckland
February 16, 2023
In this week’s video insight David delves deeper into the behavioural science of investment markets. The global economic environment, according to the consensus, will deteriorate as 2023 progresses, but with that said risk is not necessarily inherent in an investment; it is always relative to the price paid. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Investing Education, Video Insights.
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Why paying down your mortgage could be your best investment
Roger Montgomery
February 13, 2023
With interest rates rising, many of you are probably wondering if it would be beneficial to pay more off your mortgage. The good news is that if you have sufficient funds, and you are in a high personal tax bracket, it could be your best investment right now. Let me explain why. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Property.
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Aura Private Credit: Letter to investors 06 February 2023
Brett Craig
February 6, 2023
ADIs, or Authorised Deposit-taking Institutions, have been looking into how to incorporate the same underwriting technology that many fintech/non-bank lenders already have for some time now, with the intention of utilising the technology on unsecured SME credit. Continue…
by Brett Craig Posted in Aura Group.
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