Insightful Insights
-
Greased Lightning
Ben MacNevin
January 23, 2015
The sudden fall in the oil price in the December 2014 half-year was unexpected by the market, but the speed of contraction in oil-related investment should come as no surprise. As the German economist Rudi Dornbusch observed, “In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will and then happen faster than you thought they could”. continue…
by Ben MacNevin Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights.
-
Is it time to look at mining services?
Tim Kelley
January 23, 2015
Among the biggest casualties of falling resources capex have been the various engineering, contracting and construction firms that provide services to the resources sector. Monadelphous (ASX: MND) is a case in point: With strong demand to fuel its growth, the Mondaelphous share price rose 50-fold in the decade leading up to 2012. Over the last few years however, a decline in earnings has seen the share price fall by around 70 per cent – a painful drop in any language. continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights, Property.
-
Did Christmas come at all?
Russell Muldoon
January 21, 2015
Following on from our anecdotal feedback we posted last week that Christmas trading came very, very late for retailers, the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI) has trumped even our most negative expectations.
ACCI produce a quarterly survey of a group of businesses and their investing confidence. The latest survey for the December 2014 quarter described the all-important Christmas retailing period as “the worst for 23 years”. continue…
by Russell Muldoon Posted in Consumer discretionary, Insightful Insights.
-
MEDIA
what looks attractive this year
Tim Kelley
January 20, 2015
In these highlights from Your Money Your Call, Tim Kelley discusses expectations around quantitative easing out of the European Central Bank and attractive companies in the Australian market. Watch here.
by Tim Kelley Posted in Companies, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, TV Appearances.
-
Can TPG buy Vodafone?
Scott Shuttleworth
January 19, 2015
When you’re in the markets, you hear a lot of ‘talk’ and it’s an interesting exercise to work through the numbers of some of that ‘talk’ – particularly when you can show that the ‘talk’ is probably on the wrong track.
Recently we’ve been hearing rumours that TPG may make a bid for Vodafone’s Australian business. I took the time to run through the numbers and see whether it was a likely event. continue…
by Scott Shuttleworth Posted in Insightful Insights, Takeovers, Technology & Telecommunications.
-
WHITEPAPER
HIGHER RETURNS AND LOWER RISK? YES, IT’S POSSIBLE WITH PRIVATE CREDIT
Discover how private credit can deliver higher returns with lower risk in our latest whitepaper. Learn how the Aura Core Income Fund’s AA equivalent rated portfolio has consistently outperformed while maintaining transparency and robust risk management. Unlock the insights to achieve superior risk-adjusted returns today.
READ HERE -
What can we learn from Bitcoin?
Tim Kelley
January 19, 2015
Bitcoin is one of the more interesting innovations we have seen in financial markets in recent years. The digital currency shot to prominence in late 2013 when the price rocketed to above US$1000, and a whole new industry of ‘bitcoin mining’ emerged in response to the elevated prices.
Websites that allow “investors” to trade currencies and commodities have also moved to capitalise on the excitement by offering their customers the ability to trade Bitcoins at the click of a mouse. More recently, the way to profit from Bitcoins has been to go short, with the price falling back to around $200 more recently. continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Foreign Currency, Insightful Insights.
-
How did retailers go over Christmas?
Russell Muldoon
January 16, 2015
Since we last published this chart back in November, our view on listed retailing stocks remains largely unchanged and based on anecdotal feedback to date, the wealth effect from rising share markets and property prices is still not translating into spending. We have seen three downgrades (Kathmandu, Flight Centre & Oroton) and based on our research, it’s entirely possible these will not be isolated cases. continue…
by Russell Muldoon Posted in Consumer discretionary, Insightful Insights.
-
What does a five-year global forecast look like?
David Buckland
January 15, 2015
John Mauldin from Mauldin Economics has just penned “A Five-Year Global Financial Forecast” and as investors I thought some of those points, which I have summarised below, should certainly be kept in mind.
1. The Japanese experiment with Quantitative Easing is getting dangerous; they are exporting deflation to trade competitors like Germany, China and South Korea.
2. A European crisis at least as severe as 2012 is likely. Italy and France will struggle as the structural flaws in the design of the Euro become apparent.
3. China is “approaching a day of reckoning as it tries to reduce its dependence on debt in its bid for growth, while creating a consumer society.”
4. Emerging markets which have taken on more dollar denominated debt in recent years will suffer as their currencies decline against a strongly rising US dollar.
For a copy John’s full report please click here.
And on other news:
Japanese 5 year Government Bonds hit nil percent earlier this week; and the UK inflation rate in December 2014 hit its lowest level since May 2000.UK Chancellor George Osborne said the drop in the Consumer Price Index (to 0.5 per cent) was “almost entirely driven by external factors such as the oil price” which has more than halved since June, and is “much more welcome than in the eurozone”, where inflation has fallen to negative 0.2 per cent.
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights.
- 6 Comments
- save this article
- POSTED IN Economics, Insightful Insights
-
Is the US too expensive?
Russell Muldoon
January 15, 2015
With headlines booming across the newswires such as “U.S. Retakes Helm of Global Economy” citing the US economy is on the up, the US market has soared as share prices – on average – have baked-in a clear road ahead for listed businesses and their earnings prospects.
But just to what extent? continue…
by Russell Muldoon Posted in Companies, Insightful Insights, Market Valuation.
-
Earnings per share growth forecasts under pressure
David Buckland
January 13, 2015
With seven months to go before Australian companies commence reporting their results for the year to June 2015, it will not surprise readers to see earning per share (EPS) growth forecasts being cut to sub 5 per cent. According to Deutsche Bank, EPS growth forecasts for June 2016 financial year has also been cut to 7 per cent. The expectations for both years are below the 8 per cent average figure recorded in the 2002-2011 ten-year period.
by David Buckland Posted in Insightful Insights, Market Valuation.
