Insightful Insights
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Eastern Europe – the epicenter of our next crisis?
David Buckland
January 29, 2015
It’s official. European consumer prices fell an annual 0.2 per cent in December 2014. German five-year bonds and Swiss ten-year bonds are now paying a “negative rate of interest.” European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi continues to “do whatever it takes” with last week’s announcement of the 1,100 billion euro (US$1,250 billion) bond purchase program over 2015 and 2016. Mario thinks this will steer the Euro area away from deflation by convincing investors his latest strategy is audacious enough to stimulate their relatively fragile economy. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Foreign Currency, Insightful Insights.
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Looking back but forward
Russell Muldoon
January 29, 2015
Here is a simple investing rule: share prices will follow a business’ profitability over the long term. In the words of Warren Buffett, “Put together a portfolio of companies whose aggregate earnings march upward over the years, and so also will the portfolio’s market value”. continue…
by Russell Muldoon Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education.
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The oil price slump and the declining rate of inflation
David Buckland
January 27, 2015
The slump in the oil price since mid-2014 has seen global inflation rates continue to trend down. European consumer prices fell an annual 0.2 per cent in December 2014 and European Central Bank president continues to “do whatever it takes” by unveiling a 1,100 billion Euro (US$1,250 billion) bond buying program over 2015-2016. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Energy / Resources, Foreign Currency, Insightful Insights.
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Greased Lightning
Ben MacNevin
January 23, 2015
The sudden fall in the oil price in the December 2014 half-year was unexpected by the market, but the speed of contraction in oil-related investment should come as no surprise. As the German economist Rudi Dornbusch observed, “In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will and then happen faster than you thought they could”. continue…
by Ben MacNevin Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights.
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Is it time to look at mining services?
Tim Kelley
January 23, 2015
Among the biggest casualties of falling resources capex have been the various engineering, contracting and construction firms that provide services to the resources sector. Monadelphous (ASX: MND) is a case in point: With strong demand to fuel its growth, the Mondaelphous share price rose 50-fold in the decade leading up to 2012. Over the last few years however, a decline in earnings has seen the share price fall by around 70 per cent – a painful drop in any language. continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights, Property.
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Did Christmas come at all?
Russell Muldoon
January 21, 2015
Following on from our anecdotal feedback we posted last week that Christmas trading came very, very late for retailers, the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI) has trumped even our most negative expectations.
ACCI produce a quarterly survey of a group of businesses and their investing confidence. The latest survey for the December 2014 quarter described the all-important Christmas retailing period as “the worst for 23 years”. continue…
by Russell Muldoon Posted in Consumer discretionary, Insightful Insights.
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MEDIA
what looks attractive this year
Tim Kelley
January 20, 2015
In these highlights from Your Money Your Call, Tim Kelley discusses expectations around quantitative easing out of the European Central Bank and attractive companies in the Australian market. Watch here.
by Tim Kelley Posted in Companies, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, TV Appearances.
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Can TPG buy Vodafone?
Scott Shuttleworth
January 19, 2015
When you’re in the markets, you hear a lot of ‘talk’ and it’s an interesting exercise to work through the numbers of some of that ‘talk’ – particularly when you can show that the ‘talk’ is probably on the wrong track.
Recently we’ve been hearing rumours that TPG may make a bid for Vodafone’s Australian business. I took the time to run through the numbers and see whether it was a likely event. continue…
by Scott Shuttleworth Posted in Insightful Insights, Takeovers, Technology & Telecommunications.
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What can we learn from Bitcoin?
Tim Kelley
January 19, 2015
Bitcoin is one of the more interesting innovations we have seen in financial markets in recent years. The digital currency shot to prominence in late 2013 when the price rocketed to above US$1000, and a whole new industry of ‘bitcoin mining’ emerged in response to the elevated prices.
Websites that allow “investors” to trade currencies and commodities have also moved to capitalise on the excitement by offering their customers the ability to trade Bitcoins at the click of a mouse. More recently, the way to profit from Bitcoins has been to go short, with the price falling back to around $200 more recently. continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Foreign Currency, Insightful Insights.
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How did retailers go over Christmas?
Russell Muldoon
January 16, 2015
Since we last published this chart back in November, our view on listed retailing stocks remains largely unchanged and based on anecdotal feedback to date, the wealth effect from rising share markets and property prices is still not translating into spending. We have seen three downgrades (Kathmandu, Flight Centre & Oroton) and based on our research, it’s entirely possible these will not be isolated cases. continue…
by Russell Muldoon Posted in Consumer discretionary, Insightful Insights.
