Insightful Insights
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The rules have changed. Has your portfolio?
Roger Montgomery
February 17, 2026
In my first video insight for 2026, I explained that the era of easy investing is over. With valuations elevated, markets concentrated in a narrow group of stocks and volatility rising, I believe investors need to think more carefully about diversification.
That is why we continue to focus on strategies uncorrelated to markets, such as the Aura Private Credit Income Fund, which seeks to provide investors with access to regular income, and the Digital Asset Funds Management – Digital Income Fund, which seeks to profit from volatility and pricing inefficiencies across global asset exchanges.
These strategies may offer diversification benefits and alternative sources of income in a changing investment environment. If you would like to learn more about our offerings and whether they are appropriate for your circumstances, please fill in the form below to receive further information. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Video Insights.
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MEDIA
Soaring stocks hide U.S. fragility as gold surge sends warning to investors
Roger Montgomery
February 5, 2026
The strength of U.S. stock markets would have any reasonable investor believing all is well with the world and that U.S. exceptionalism is alive and well.
Yet, the stock market’s buoyancy belies the head-spinning conga line of events over the first month of 2026 that would, at any other time in history, have caused the market to plunge or coincided with it.
Take gold’s 17 per cent ascent so far this month, which follows a 66 per cent rise in 2025. Such moves are unusual. Since gold began trading freely in the 1970s, the average annual return for gold has been roughly 6-8 per cent. January’s return doubles that annual number.
This article was first published in The Australian on 04 December 2025. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Economics, Global markets, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
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MEDIA
Fear + Greed Podcast – The bull and bear cases for equities in 2026
Roger Montgomery
February 3, 2026
I joined Sean Aylmer on Fear and Greed to look back at some of the key themes that shaped markets in 2025, including the hype surrounding in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks and the growing case for small caps. We also talked about the rise in gold and silver as the U.S. dollar weakened, and what those moves could signal for investors.
We then looked ahead to 2026, discussing why markets may become more volatile and how diversification into assets uncorrelated to traditional markets could help support portfolios. We covered Digital Asset Funds Management’s Digital Income Fund and how its digital arbitrage strategy aims to benefit from market volatility, and explored how Aura’s Private Credit Income Fund can provide income and returns with no correlation to sharemarkets.
You can listen to the episode on Fear and Greed here: The bull and bear cases for equities in 2026.by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.
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Navigating liquidity – Michael Howell’s 2026 outlook
Roger Montgomery
January 20, 2026
As we kick off 2026, I turned to UK-based Crossborder Capital’s latest global liquidity update by Michael Howell, noting booms and bubbles cannot occur without ample liquidity. The artificial intelligence (AI) boom was born of liquidity. Without ample central bank accommodation, we would not even be talking about AI, perhaps not even whispering about it except in a few university laboratories.
According to Howell, the 2026 financial landscape is a stage set for drama. His latest view on the prospects for crypto and risk assets in 2026 argues that while monetary inflation is here to stay as governments’ go-to fix for fiscal/budget woes, a looming downswing in global liquidity could produce turbulence for risk assets. Drawing from his analysis of cycles, correlations, and historical patterns, he likes positions in gold and cryptocurrencies as essential hedges – but advises investors to buy on dips. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
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MEDIA
Fear + Greed Podcast – Are we in an AI bubble?
Roger Montgomery
January 13, 2026
I joined Sean Aylmer for Fear and Greed’s Summer Series to discuss whether the powerful rally driven by artificial intelligence (AI) may now be approaching it’s peak. Drawing on lessons from past technology booms, I explained that although investors can correctly predict that a technology (in this case, AI) will change the course of humanity – it doesn’t automatically translate to great investment returns. The issue becomes apparent when a theme is perceived as structural, when in fact it is cyclical. We can see this in AI stocks where valuations have been inflated to a point that cannot be sustained.
While no one can call the exact timing of an unwind, signs suggest the best part of the run for many AI-linked stocks may be behind us. For investors, perhaps they should consider rebalancing their portfolios after strong equity gains and spread capital more evenly across opportunities beyond the AI theme.by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.
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MEDIA
Fear + Greed Podcast – Inside the remarkable world of high-frequency trading
Roger Montgomery
January 6, 2026
I joined Sean Aylmer for Fear and Greed’s Summer Series to talk about high-frequency arbitrage, how these strategies work, and why they have become an increasingly attractive alternative for sophisticated investors. We discussed how arbitrage seeks to profit from volatility and pricing inefficiencies across global asset exchanges. Importantly, we also explored how this type of strategy can complement a diversified portfolio by providing returns that are largely uncorrelated to equity markets.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Digital Asset Funds Management, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Podcast Channel.
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Farewell 2025, Hello 2026
David Buckland
January 2, 2026
As we turn the page on 2025, it is a useful time to step back and reflect on what shaped markets over the year just passed. In this article, I review the key themes that influenced global equities, interest rates, commodities, and currencies, highlighting where investors were rewarded, where conditions became more challenging, and what these developments may mean as we look ahead. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular.
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MEDIA
Get set for a bumpy 2026
Roger Montgomery
January 2, 2026
In my latest article for Firstlinks, I reflect on why 2025 delivered another strong year for equities, supported by the continued combination of disinflation and positive economic growth – with much of the strength driven by enthusiasm around artificial intelligence (AI).
However, I note that as the gap between valuations and realistic long-term returns continues to widen, the road ahead is likely to become bumpy.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Economics, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, On the Internet.
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The $400,000 mirage vs. The $65,000 reality
Roger Montgomery
December 30, 2025
According to a survey by Finder and, separately, modelling from investment and annuities firm Challenger, Australians are being haunted. Not in their homes, mind you, but in their bank accounts. The ghost, however, isn’t inflation; it’s the distant and diminishing finish line for what’s considered ‘financial peace of mind.’ continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.
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From bullish to cautious – Why 2026 may bring lower returns and higher volatility
Roger Montgomery
December 15, 2025
Let’s state the obvious right at the outset: No one knows for certain if the equity market will crash.
The reality of investing is that we can rarely identify a bubble until after it has burst, which means we can never be sure when we are inside one. However, with that necessary disclaimer in place, I am reasonably confident that investors should prepare for a shift in 2026. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.
