Insightful Insights

I joined Sean Aylmer on Fear and Greed to look back at some of the key themes that shaped markets in 2025, including the hype surrounding in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks and the growing case for small caps. We also talked about the rise in gold and silver as the U.S. dollar weakened, and what those moves could signal for investors.

We then turned to what 2026 may have in store, focusing on how markets could become more volatile and why diversification into offerings uncorrelated to markets may help support your portfolio. 

You can listen to the episode on Fear and Greed here: The bull and bear cases for equities in 2026.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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As we kick off 2026, I turned to UK-based Crossborder Capital’s latest global liquidity update by Michael Howell, noting booms and bubbles cannot occur without ample liquidity. The artificial intelligence (AI) boom was born of liquidity. Without ample central bank accommodation, we would not even be talking about AI, perhaps not even whispering about it except in a few university laboratories. 

According to Howell, the 2026 financial landscape is a stage set for drama. His latest view on the prospects for crypto and risk assets in 2026 argues that while monetary inflation is here to stay as governments’ go-to fix for fiscal/budget woes, a looming downswing in global liquidity could produce turbulence for risk assets. Drawing from his analysis of cycles, correlations, and historical patterns, he likes positions in gold and cryptocurrencies as essential hedges – but advises investors to buy on dips. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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I joined Sean Aylmer for Fear and Greed’s Summer Series to discuss whether the powerful rally driven by artificial intelligence (AI) may now be approaching it’s peak. Drawing on lessons from past technology booms, I explained that although investors can correctly predict that a technology (in this case, AI) will change the course of humanity – it doesn’t automatically translate to great investment returns. The issue becomes apparent when a theme is perceived as structural, when in fact it is cyclical. We can see this in AI stocks where valuations have been inflated to a point that cannot be sustained. 

While no one can call the exact timing of an unwind, signs suggest the best part of the run for many AI-linked stocks may be behind us. For investors, perhaps they should consider rebalancing their portfolios after strong equity gains and spread capital more evenly across opportunities beyond the AI theme.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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I joined Sean Aylmer for Fear and Greed’s Summer Series to talk about high-frequency arbitrage, how these strategies work, and why they have become an increasingly attractive alternative for sophisticated investors. We discussed how arbitrage seeks to profit from volatility and pricing inefficiencies across global asset exchanges. Importantly, we also explored how this type of strategy can complement a diversified portfolio by providing returns that are largely uncorrelated to equity markets.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Digital Asset Funds Management, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Podcast Channel.

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As we turn the page on 2025, it is a useful time to step back and reflect on what shaped markets over the year just passed. In this article, I review the key themes that influenced global equities, interest rates, commodities, and currencies, highlighting where investors were rewarded, where conditions became more challenging, and what these developments may mean as we look ahead. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular.

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In my latest article for Firstlinks, I reflect on why 2025 delivered another strong year for equities, supported by the continued combination of disinflation and positive economic growth – with much of the strength driven by enthusiasm around artificial intelligence (AI).

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Economics, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, On the Internet.

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According to a survey by Finder and, separately, modelling from investment and annuities firm Challenger, Australians are being haunted. Not in their homes, mind you, but in their bank accounts. The ghost, however, isn’t inflation; it’s the distant and diminishing finish line for what’s considered ‘financial peace of mind.’ continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

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Let’s state the obvious right at the outset: No one knows for certain if the equity market will crash.

The reality of investing is that we can rarely identify a bubble until after it has burst, which means we can never be sure when we are inside one. However, with that necessary disclaimer in place, I am reasonably confident that investors should prepare for a shift in 2026. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.

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Debt nuances

I just read the following sentence: “Graphic Processing Unit (GPU) rich clouds are now raising multi-billion-dollar debt with GPUs as collateral.”

It got me thinking… continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Last night, on ABC’s 7.30 news report with Michael Rowland, I discussed whether surging investment in artificial intelligence (AI) is pushing large technology companies to unsustainable valuations. I noted that investors often become highly enthusiastic when new technologies emerge that are believed to reshape the world, but history shows this can inflate expectations. In the case of AI, the scale of spending by tech hyperscalers is immense, and to justify it they would need extraordinary levels of revenue.

Watch the full segment here: ABC News – Are AI investors causing tech companies to be overvalued?

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Market commentary, On the Internet, Technology & Telecommunications, TV Appearances.

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