Insightful Insights
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MEDIA
2GB Money News – Can we really improve productivity?
Roger Montgomery
November 13, 2026
I joined Money News with Clinton Maynard on 2GB to discuss Australia’s declining productivity and why it matters for inflation, interest rates and our standard of living. We explored how productivity measures efficiency rather than simply working harder, and how government policies, workplace regulations and tax settings can influence business growth and investment. I also questioned the Government’s decision to exclude tax and workplace relations from the Productivity Commission’s review, despite their significant role in improving productivity and easing cost-of-living pressures. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Radio.
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The missing ingredient in Jack Cowin’s interest rate argument
David Buckland
November 10, 2026
Jack Cowin, who brought KFC to Australia, founded Hungry Jack’s and is Chairman of Domino’s Pizza Enterprises, recently shared his thoughts on interest rates:
“I was around in the 1970s when corporate interest rates were in the mid-20 per cent range, so this is a picnic. And in the 1980s or 1990s we had similarly high interest rates, so I’m somewhat bemused by the degree of concern people are expressing versus what it has been in the past…the reality is the sun will come up in the morning. The economy is cyclical, and things will rise, they will solve the problems, and the sun will come up.” continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.
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MEDIA
Wall Street turns its back on Trump and Musk by dumping related assets
Roger Montgomery
November 6, 2026
As the blame game erupts within Republican ranks over the midterms rout, what was an extraordinary day in Washington saw a remarkable rally on Wall Street. The best day in 20-months for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, while tech stocks rose on the Nasdaq. But Elon musk’s Tesla and SpaceX took a hit. The billionaire spending hundreds of millions of dollars unsuccessfully backing Republicans in the midterms.
I believe the clean sweep by the Democrats raises questions about Starlink’s government grants and contracts, as well as those involving SpaceX and Tesla.
The oil price slump also appeared to boost global stock markets, but I remain unconvinced the optimism will last. While investors may expect a less antagonistic U.S. foreign policy towards the Middle East, Donald Trump remains a lame duck president with the power to issue executive orders that could continue to destabilise markets. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.
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Apple adds to AI woes
Roger Montgomery
November 3, 2026
For nearly two years, it has been an article of faith that the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution would fund its own momentum, and any enterprise failing to allocate exorbitant amounts of capital risks irrelevance.
More recently, however, that narrative has frayed under the weight of escalating capital expenditure (capex), declining free cash flows, and growing investor fatigue, if not nervousness, about the circular financing, which has escalated again with chip makers Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom recently acting as US$5 billion cornerstone investors in Meta Platforms’ US$25 billion stock sale. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.
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Amazon and Google shares plunge: The AI bill is coming due
Roger Montgomery
October 31, 2026
Until now, Wall Street has been treating generative artificial intelligence (AI) as a license to justify virtually any valuation, no matter how lofty.
Aggressive spending today to dominate the architecture of tomorrow’s economy has led equity and bond investors to fall over themselves to avoid missing the next transformation of humanity.
However, over the last 24 hours, the market’s patience seems to have cracked. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.
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WHITEPAPER
THE PROPERTY RUG PULL
Discover how proposed changes to negative gearing, Capital Gains Tax and holiday home tax rules could reshape property investing, and why investors may consider private credit as property returns become less certain and tax advantages diminish.
READ HERE -
Recent bubbles
Roger Montgomery
October 30, 2026
The artificial intelligence (AI) boom, or bubble, has captured so much investor attention that many have forgotten how many bubbles we’ve seen in the last decade.
And whether it was sudden liquidity shifts, low interest rates, technological enthusiasm, or structural market changes, these factors consistently combined to feed speculation and inflate asset markets.
When cheap capital or social euphoria flows faster than underlying fundamental earnings, valuations detach from reality. Most importantly, regardless of what drives the enthusiasm, whether it’s decentralised digital assets or meme stocks, each cycle saw valuations peak, and markets eventually corrected. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.
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MEDIA
The Australian – Bond market revival rewards investors but threatens stock values
Roger Montgomery
October 30, 2026
In my latest article for The Australian, I explore why government bonds are becoming increasingly attractive after more than a decade of low yields and market volatility. I examine the forces driving U.S. Treasury yields, including economic growth, interest rate expectations and demand for safe assets, and explain why a slowing economy could create opportunities for bond investors through both income and potential capital gains, while presenting challenges for equity markets.
Download the article here: Bonds were down and out – now they could beat stocks continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.
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The AI funding window is closing: slowing revenue, IPO fails, and a bankrupt OpenAI
Roger Montgomery
October 21, 2026
For two years, Silicon Valley and global equity markets agreed that artificial intelligence (AI) is an uncapped frontier where aggressive capital deployment and unchecked spending would automatically yield exponential returns. Or, perhaps, equity markets believed the spin coming out of Silicon Valley.
Whichever scenario is true, reported operating results over the past week have confirmed the shift in sentiment toward AI.
Slowing revenue, public market pullbacks, and fluid enterprise strategies suggest the market’s appetite for unconstrained AI spending is finally hitting a ceiling. Investors have well and truly moved past the honeymoon phase and are demanding proof of a sustainable economic model. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.
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Give us back our confidence!
David Buckland
October 21, 2026
I just returned from an inspiring presentation on artificial intelligence (AI) by Alan Finkel AO, Australia’s Chief Scientist from 2016 to 2020, only to read that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 2,200 staff had rejected a 9.5 per cent pay rise, over three years. The proposal included a 3.5 per cent increase in the first year, followed by a 3.0 per cent increase in each of the next two years.
Together with the Head Office renovation, now expected to cost $1.2 billion, this seems like a “joke”, particularly when we consider that total RBA staff numbers have increased by around 800, or 57 per cent, over the past five years. And this doesn’t include the RBA’s fiscal 2025/26 accounting loss of A$8.5 billion on the unrealized value of its government bond and foreign exchange portfolio. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.
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“Australian residential property prices never fall”
David Buckland
October 15, 2026
I can’t tell you how many times I have heard the expression, “Australian residential Property prices never fall”. Admittedly these “experts” have enjoyed an enormous 40-odd year bull market. However, they don’t believe that asset prices can be cyclical, and they likely missed the 1993 London headline which read “One million homes in negative equity”.
As Australia’s unemployment rate hits 4.7 per cent, a five year high, and inflation reaches 4.0 per cent in the 12 months to August 2026, it appears a period of stagflation – slow or negative real economic growth per capita, higher unemployment and persistent inflation – will likely be with us for the foreseeable future. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Popular, Property.
