Insightful Insights
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Yardeni v Burry: The Bull versus the Bear
Roger Montgomery
May 15, 2026
Red Corner (Bull) Ed Yardeni
I have written about and referenced both gents for years, and if you’d like to hear from them first-hand, you can subscribe to their musings on Substack. In the red corner is Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research and in the blue (bearish corner) is Michael Burry. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.
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How the budget turns a reno to ruin
Rhodri Taylor
May 14, 2026
The 2026-27 Australian Federal Budget, handed down on May 12, 2026, fundamentally alters the economics of property flipping.
For decades, a tax system that rewarded capital growth over rental yield made the “buy, renovate, and flip” property model a popular way for middle-class investors with a bit of energy and an idea to get ahead.
However, Labor’s latest proposed tax reforms have gutted the high margins that once made short-term established property speculation rewarding. continue…
by Rhodri Taylor Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Property.
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MEDIA
Ausbiz – Budget risks and market warnings
Roger Montgomery
May 14, 2026
I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz today to discuss the 2026 Federal Budget and whether changes to Capital Gains Tax (CGT) and negative gearing could ultimately create unintended consequences for younger Australians. While the reforms are aimed at improving housing affordability, I explained why reduced incentives for investors and forecasts for fewer homes to be built could place further pressure on supply and long-term wealth creation. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, TV Appearances.
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IMF vs. Australian Treasury: “the Severe scenario”
David Buckland
May 14, 2026
Higher global inflation and lower growth will reflect the scale of impact dependent on the length and severity of the U.S./Iran war.
The near-term forecasts for global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) use a Reference Scenario, Adverse Scenario and a Severe Scenario, as illustrated in Graph 1 below. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.
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The property market just changed forever – A major shift for investors
Roger Montgomery
May 14, 2026
In my latest video insight, I explain why I believe the budget could fundamentally reshape property investing in Australia. Changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax may discourage investment in established properties, slow housing and credit growth, and create unintended consequences for banks, property-related businesses and younger Australians trying to build wealth.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Property, Video Insights.
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The 2026 Federal Budget – insights for investors
David Buckland
May 13, 2026
The 2026 Federal Budget has landed with some significant implications for investors.
I discuss the key economic indicators and the tax changes that are set to reshape the investment landscape.Economy
The starting point is to expect higher global inflation and lower growth with the scale of impact dependent on the length and severity of the U.S./Iran war.
Growth in Australia is expected to slow to 1.75 per cent in 2026/2027.
Real wages are expected to go backwards again, which means living standards are expected to decline. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Financial Services, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Popular.
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MEDIA
ABC The Business – Currency, Commodities and Investor Confidence
Roger Montgomery
May 11, 2026
I joined David Taylor on ABC’s The Business to discuss the recent strength in the Australian dollar and why markets are viewing the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as one of the more hawkish central banks globally. I explained that investors are increasingly betting on further Australian rate rises, which has helped push the Australian dollar higher relative to other currencies. We also discussed how rising oil prices, ongoing geopolitical tensions and the upcoming federal budget could all influence inflation and the future direction of interest rates. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Foreign Currency, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.
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May the fourth be with you – A look at the ‘four’ factors of modern economics
Roger Montgomery
May 7, 2026
In economics, the wealth of a nation is built and sustained through production, and that production requires three ingredients: Land, Labour, and Capital. These are the finite building blocks of prosperity. Land provides the raw materials, Labour provides the muscle and the mind to transform them, and Capital represents the tools.
The primary challenge for every society has always been the efficient allocation of, and between, these inherently scarce resources. If you run out of one, growth grinds to a halt. You need all three. That was, it seems, up until recently, when it was proposed a fourth ingredient exists, and today this emerging thesis is inspiring stock market bulls. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.
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Midterms, war and U.S. debt
Roger Montgomery
May 7, 2026
With the prospect of a full-scale war in the Middle East increasing, with bond yields heating up, and with famed short seller Michael Burry increasing his short position against the U.S. SOXX Semiconductor Index, could this month be the month that investors will look back on with regret, wishing they’d diversified?
It’s a midterm election year in the U.S.
Let’s begin with the U.S. Midterm elections in mind. Did you know the midterm year is historically the worst year of the four-year presidential cycle for stocks? Some analysts suggest it’s because of something called the “midterm discount.” continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Insightful Insights.
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The truth behind the budget narrative – a closer look at housing, migration, and policy
Roger Montgomery
May 1, 2026
In this video insight I challenge the idea that Labor’s federal budget is delivering genuine intergenerational fairness, arguing instead that it overlooks the fundamental drivers of Australia’s housing pressures. While Labor focuses on taxing investors and reshaping incentives, the reality is that strong migration and limited housing supply continue to fuel demand, keeping vacancy rates tight and affordability under strain. I also question whether shifting the burden onto “mum and dad” investors addresses the real issue, suggesting that broader structural reform and a more honest assessment of policy trade-offs are needed. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Property, Video Insights.
