Insightful Insights
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From bullish to cautious: Why 2026 may bring lower returns and higher volatility
Roger Montgomery
December 15, 2025
Let’s state the obvious right at the outset: No one knows for certain if the equity market will crash.
The reality of investing is that we can rarely identify a bubble until after it has burst, which means we can never be sure when we are inside one. However, with that necessary disclaimer in place, I am reasonably confident that investors should prepare for a shift in 2026. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.
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Lessons from past technology booms
Roger Montgomery
December 12, 2025
Debt nuances
I just read the following sentence: “Graphic Processing Unit (GPU) rich clouds are now raising multi-billion-dollar debt with GPUs as collateral.”
It got me thinking… continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.
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MEDIA
ABC News – Are AI investors causing tech companies to be overvalued?
Roger Montgomery
December 12, 2025
Last night, on ABC’s 7.30 news report with Michael Rowland, I discussed whether surging investment in artificial intelligence (AI) is pushing large technology companies to unsustainable valuations. I noted that investors often become highly enthusiastic when new technologies emerge that are believed to reshape the world, but history shows this can inflate expectations. In the case of AI, the scale of spending by tech hyperscalers is immense, and to justify it they would need extraordinary levels of revenue.
Watch the full segment here: ABC News – Are AI investors causing tech companies to be overvalued?by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Market commentary, On the Internet, Technology & Telecommunications, TV Appearances.
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It’s a matter of perception
Roger Montgomery
November 19, 2025
For every equity that trades, there is a buyer and seller. Often there are functional reasons for selling, such as paying down a loan, paying tax, distributing an inheritance, or meeting retirement spending needs. Putting those aside, another reason for selling is the harbouring of a negative outlook on the share market in general or the sector or individual stock. But there is also a buyer on the side, who may hold the polar opposite view and outlook.
And if we assume both investors have access to the same information, the difference in outlook can only be attributed to a difference in perception.
Take for example the spending by artificial intelligence (AI) hyperscalers on their infrastructure buildout, estimated to be US$3 trillion by 2029. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.
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Gold’s glitter fades: biggest one-day drop since 2013
Roger Montgomery
October 22, 2025
While bubble definitions abound, most fall into two camps: those that measure overvaluation and those that observe the behaviours and conditions that typically give rise to it.
The most straightforward definition of a bubble is asset prices climbing far above some measure of value, such as earnings, dividends, gross-value-added (GVA) or discounted cash flows. Robert Shiller’s famous CAPE ratio, which compares stock prices to long-term average earnings, and John Hussman’s market-cap-to-GVA, were designed to flag these distortions. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.
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MEDIA
ABC Nightlife – What’s driving today’s market?
Roger Montgomery
October 22, 2025
I joined Phil Clark on ABC Nightlife yesterday to discuss what’s driving today’s market. Falling inflation, steady growth, and record central-bank liquidity continue to fuel this bull run. But with artificial intelligence (AI) spending soaring, returns need to justify valuations. We also discussed the rising demand for gold, with many investors viewing it as a hedge against uncertainty. Although physical gold might be nice to look at, exchange-traded options may offer more efficient exposure for investors.
Perhaps considering alternative asset classes that are uncorrelated to public markets such as private credit or arbitrage strategies may help to manage risk in these uncertain times. You can listen to the full episode here: Nightlife Finance with Roger Montgomery. continue…by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Radio.
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MEDIA
Is there a stock market bubble? Here are the warning signs
Roger Montgomery
October 22, 2025
During a boom, warnings of bubbles and crashes are swept under a rug woven with proclamations such as “we’ve entered a multi-year bull market” and “there’s so much money on the sidelines waiting to invest”.
This article was first published in The Australian on 06 October 2025. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.
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How understanding demographic shifts can help investors
Roger Montgomery
May 17, 2024
Investors understand the power of demographic information. Back in the early 1990s, when I was presenting to investors at ASX-sponsored conferences, I recall ‘time-lining’ the baby boomers and predicting – reasonably successfully, I might add – what industries the boomers would have a substantial impact on. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights.
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U.S. stocks have already jumped 10%. Where are the opportunities for 2024?
Roger Montgomery
March 22, 2024
Have you noticed this year’s improvement in market sentiment? Having intimated its possibility throughout 2023, global equities are now demonstrating a broadly robust rise.
Despite economic and geopolitical uncertainty, the Polen Capital Global Growth Fund’s portfolio has also demonstrated striking performance, with expectations for continued success through the cycle.by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education.
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Why Australian Eagle believes CSL is a ‘dream company’
Sean Sequeira
April 27, 2023
CSL Ltd (ASX:CSL) – which labels itself as a multinational specialty biotechnology company – has long been one of the stars of the Australian market. Since listing in 1994, CSL has not missed a beat, with its share price soaring a massive 25,000 per cent. It’s a long-term holding in the Australian Eagle portfolio and, with great management and a solid growth outlook, we continue to like what we see.
by Sean Sequeira Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Health Care, Insightful Insights.
By now, every investor has heard the bubble warning. Yet, when markets are soaring on optimistic expectations for future growth, high prices seem entirely reasonable. Indeed, and somewhat worryingly, in the midst of a boom, high prices validate the optimism.