Insightful Insights

I joined Andrew Geoghegan on Ausbiz to discuss why geopolitical shocks often coincide with resilient equity markets. History shows that while wars and major conflicts can trigger sharp initial sell-offs, markets have often recovered quickly and, in some cases, delivered strong returns during those periods. During World War I, for example, U.S. equities initially fell by around 30 per cent before going on to generate average annual gains of close to 7 per cent between 1915 and 1918, including a particularly strong rebound in 1915. World War II also aligned with solid Dow Jones returns, depending on the start and end dates used. And according to data from LPL Financial on 22 major non-financial shocks since Pearl Harbor, markets have typically fallen by around 5 per cent before recovering fully within about six weeks. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.

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While Israel pursues a high-stakes military campaign and President Trump plays ‘Deal or No Deal” with an Iranian regime that might not even have a leader in charge, investors are doing the only sensible thing left: Hiding.

With the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)’s ‘asymmetric’ threat to the Strait of Hormuz continuing and the U.S. increasing its on-the-ground footprint as America’s 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit arrives in the Middle East, the risk of a recession has also risen. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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As Agentic artificial intelligence (AI)’s threat to jobs spreads ever wider, the concept of Universal Basic Income (UBI) is shifting from theory to, frighteningly, a central pillar of Silicon Valley’s vision for our future.

Love him or hate him now, OpenAI’s Sam Altman was the first to publicly discuss a UBI, announcing in early 2016 that Y Combinator would fund a multi-year, large-scale UBI study to prepare for an automated future. Elon Musk followed later that year, saying in a CNBC interview that UBI is “going to be necessary” because “there will be fewer and fewer jobs that a robot cannot do better.” continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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When investors are confident, greater risk is taken, greater debt levels are serviced, and greater liquidity is prevalent. And the opposite is also true.  The response to a loss of confidence is to reduce risk, pay down debt, and “batten down the hatches”. Liquidity can quickly get tight.

When the ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence survey for the week to Sunday 22 March 2026 was released, I thought it was worth highlighting, given consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since records began in 1973 (1). continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Insightful Insights, Market commentary.

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I joined Philip Clark on ABC Nightlife to discuss the shift toward a more volatile market environment in 2026. With inflation likely rising again, growth slowing and oil prices climbing, the key conditions that supported recent equity gains are fading. We also explored potential war scenarios involving Iran and how they could impact markets, inflation and interest rates.

Given this backdrop, I highlighted the need to rethink portfolio construction, with private credit emerging as a potential alternative offering attractive income with lower volatility. We also touched on rising fuel costs, price pressures on consumers, and broader structural challenges in Australia’s economy. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio.

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How to maximise your savings with higher-yield funds with competitive returns and risk.

Looking to make your money work harder this year? Whether you’re looking to fund a better lifestyle, build your nest egg or simply grow some savings, you may want to read this article.

For many retirees – and particularly people who may be navigating their finances independently for the first time – the stock market can feel less like an ‘opportunity’, and more like a rollercoaster you never asked to board. When you are at a stage in life where preserving what you’ve built is as important as growing it, the daily ups and downs of the stock market can keep anyone awake at night.

The traditional “safe” bets, like term deposits, often fail to keep pace with the lifestyle you’ve worked so hard to earn. So, where do you turn when you want the yield of a high-performer but the stability of a fortress? continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Popular.

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For decades, Australian and global investors seeking income have depended on a traditional “Core” fixed income allocation for their portfolios, mainly consisting of government-related debt and investment-grade corporate bonds. The result is the conventional 60/40 portfolio – a widely accepted blend of equities and fixed income (bonds).

Structural changes in liquidity, regulation, and market dominance, however, are occurring rapidly and may reduce the effectiveness of these old benchmarks. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

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It’s a shot across the bow. In recent weeks, short, sharp sell-offs across the largest global artificial intelligence (AI) hyperscalers have woken investors from their technology and AI-inspired slumber. In just six trading sessions, Microsoft fell 18 per cent. Meanwhile, Amazon has declined 14 per cent in eight sessions, and Google parent Alphabet has fallen 8 per cent in just four sessions. Elsewhere, Meta fell 10 per cent, and Tesla has declined almost 12 per cent in 10 trading sessions.

This article was first published in The Australian on 11 February 2026. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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In my first video insight for 2026, I explained that the era of easy investing is over. With valuations elevated, markets concentrated in a narrow group of stocks and volatility rising, I believe investors need to think more carefully about diversification.

That is why we continue to focus on strategies uncorrelated to markets, such as the Aura Private Credit Income Fund, which seeks to provide investors with access to regular income, and the Digital Asset Funds Management – Digital Income Fund, which seeks to profit from volatility and pricing inefficiencies across global asset exchanges.

These strategies may offer diversification benefits and alternative sources of income in a changing investment environment. If you would like to learn more about our offerings and whether they are appropriate for your circumstances, please fill in the form below to receive further information. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Video Insights.

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Yet, the stock market’s buoyancy belies the head-spinning conga line of events over the first month of 2026 that would, at any other time in history, have caused the market to plunge or coincided with it.

Take gold’s 17 per cent ascent so far this month, which follows a 66 per cent rise in 2025. Such moves are unusual. Since gold began trading freely in the 1970s, the average annual return for gold has been roughly 6-8 per cent. January’s return doubles that annual number.

This article was first published in The Australian on 04 December 2025. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Economics, Global markets, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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