Insightful Insights

While bubble definitions abound, most fall into two camps: those that measure overvaluation and those that observe the behaviours and conditions that typically give rise to it.

The most straightforward definition of a bubble is asset prices climbing far above some measure of value, such as earnings, dividends, gross-value-added (GVA) or discounted cash flows. Robert Shiller’s famous CAPE ratio, which compares stock prices to long-term average earnings, and John Hussman’s market-cap-to-GVA, were designed to flag these distortions. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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I joined Phil Clark on ABC Nightlife yesterday to discuss what’s driving today’s market. Falling inflation, steady growth, and record central-bank liquidity continue to fuel this bull run. But with artificial intelligence (AI) spending soaring, returns need to justify valuations. We also discussed the rising demand for gold, with many investors viewing it as a hedge against uncertainty. Although physical gold might be nice to look at, exchange-traded options may offer more efficient exposure for investors.

Perhaps considering alternative asset classes that are uncorrelated to public markets such as private credit or arbitrage strategies may help to manage risk in these uncertain times. You can listen to the full episode here: Nightlife Finance with Roger Montgomery. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Radio.

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During a boom, warnings of bubbles and crashes are swept under a rug woven with proclamations such as “we’ve entered a multi-year bull market” and “there’s so much money on the sidelines waiting to invest”.

This article was first published in The Australian on 06 October 2025. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.

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Investors understand the power of demographic information. Back in the early 1990s, when I was presenting to investors at ASX-sponsored conferences, I recall ‘time-lining’ the baby boomers and predicting – reasonably successfully, I might add – what industries the boomers would have a substantial impact on.   continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights.

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Have you noticed this year’s improvement in market sentiment? Having intimated its possibility throughout 2023, global equities are now demonstrating a broadly robust rise.

Despite economic and geopolitical uncertainty, the Polen Capital Global Growth Fund’s portfolio has also demonstrated striking performance, with expectations for continued success through the cycle.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

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CSL Ltd (ASX:CSL)  – which labels itself as a multinational specialty biotechnology company – has long been one of the stars of the Australian market. Since listing in 1994, CSL has not missed a beat, with its share price soaring a massive 25,000 per cent.  It’s a long-term holding in the Australian Eagle portfolio and, with great management and a solid growth outlook, we continue to like what we see.

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by Sean Sequeira Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Health Care, Insightful Insights.

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In my blog post last month, ‘Volatility is the window to opportunity’ I discussed how recent market volatility may represent an opportunity for investors to take advantage of investing in quality long-term assets and distressed assets at significant discounts. Interestingly, it did not take market participants too long to recognise these opportunities and to act on them. continue…

by Michael Gollagher Posted in Companies, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Takeovers.

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In part one of this note to young investors, I set out the reasons why I think young investors should steer clear of index funds and instead invest in high-quality, growing companies. So, the question is: how to find and invest in these companies? continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Airlines, Companies, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

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It’s probably no surprise that NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet – now expecting his seventh child, and with 11 siblings of his own – should be in favour of a ‘Big New South Wales.’ And urged on by leading bureaucrats, the new state Premier is backing a five-year doubling of the pre-pandemic migration rate, which he says will help boost the economy. But recent surveys show his views are in stark contrast to those of the general population. continue…

by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Insightful Insights.

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We understand the current difficult times families and communities are facing although we hope your Easter weekend was filled with quality family time. I wanted to share Andrea Bocelli’s performance in an empty Milan cathedral on Easter Sunday where he sang Amazing Grace. We hope this performance can lift your spirits. Stay safe.

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights.

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