Global markets

While the U.S. presidential campaign is entertaining to watch from afar (and more than a little disturbing this time around), spare a thought for our friends in the U.S. who have to sort through the rhetoric, lies, and assassination attempts to select their leader for the next four years.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets.

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Over the past 17 years, Chinese economic growth has decelerated from an approximate average annual 10 per cent to sub 5 per cent, whilst the Shanghai Composite Index has halved to under 2,900 points. Pressure on the Chinese residential property market and China’s ten-year bond yield at 2.1 per cent has been well highlighted, whilst the slowdown in sales from many big brand businesses is pointing to a deflationary environment, yet to be fully reflected in the iron-ore price.   continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Global markets.

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With 41 per cent of S&P 500 companies having reported their actual results as of Friday, the tally so far appears to be more optimistic than anticipated. Here’s a breakdown of the scorecard so far, as presented by Factset. 

The earnings season has kicked off with a robust start:  continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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Predicting private credit will become a much more important part of investors’ portfolios and an asset class in its own right has been easy. Who wouldn’t want higher yields with low volatility? And as the oldest boomers’ approach 80 years of age, many are turning their backs on the stock market’s volatility, preferring regular income and total returns that, in some cases, have beaten the stock market.  continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Polen Capital.

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According to CoreLogic, the median dwelling price for Australia is $760,000; the median dwelling price in the eight capital cities (6 States and 2 Territories) is $836,000, ranging from Sydney ($1.122 million) to Darwin ($522,000), whilst the median dwelling price for Australia’s regional towns is $605,000.  continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Global markets, Property.

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I have often thought it is better to have qualifications in psychology rather than accounting, finance, or economics when it comes to being a successful, patient investor.  

Four years ago, on 11 March 2020, the World Health Organisation (WHO) officially declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic. Markets were smashed in a short time, with many indexes declining 30 to 40 per cent over February/ March 2020. In hindsight, opportunities became plentiful, however the ensuing “pandemic-related enthusiasm” was often misplaced. Hence, it is crucial to discern between a fad and something more permanent.   continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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Last year, investors who held a non-consensus bullish stance on equities saw their optimism rewarded as the market trended up through 2023. As we pivot into 2024, the outlook might appear to be more complex, but in reality, the preconditions remain the same: disinflation accompanied by positive economic growth. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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There’s no fundamental reason for bitcoin to rise other than it is becoming more popular. But as we all know, a shift in sentiment, while usually unpredictable, can have a meaningful impact on the listed price of an asset. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary.

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The good news on the recent deceleration in inflationary expectations is many major central banks have likely finished tightening their official cash rates. The five English-speaking central banks tabled below have, on average, tightened on 12 separate occasions to 5.07 per cent. Australia is the outlier, at 4.35 per cent. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Global markets.

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Until recently, China’s decelerating inflation was welcomed by the West, as it led to lower imported prices and helped reduce inflationary pressures. However, China’s consumer prices fell for the third consecutive month in December 2023, delaying the expected rebound in economic activity following the lifting of COVID-19 controls. For calendar year 2023, CPI growth was negligible, whilst the producer price index declined by 3.0 per cent. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets.

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