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MEDIA
Ausbiz – Who really wins from the AI boom?
Roger Montgomery
August 6, 2026
I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss the next phase of the artificial intelligence (AI) investment cycle and the growing divergence between the companies building AI infrastructure and the hyperscalers funding it. We explored the risks posed by mounting AI capital expenditure (capex), weakening cash flows, the emergence of lower-cost Chinese AI models and what could happen if hyperscalers begin slowing investment. We also discussed why investors may benefit from looking beyond momentum-driven technology stocks towards high-quality, value-oriented businesses and other defensive assets.
Watch the full episode on Ausbiz here: Who really wins from the AI boom? Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Investing Education, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications, TV Appearances.
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Watching Hyperscaler debt
Roger Montgomery
July 17, 2026
Many years ago, I was asked by an AFR journalist whether I would revise my valuation of ABC Learning Centres, which was a tiny fraction of the traded price at the time, given the Singaporean Sovereign Wealth Fund (Temasek) had just invested in the company’s then-latest capital raise at a much higher market valuation.
Full of youthful confidence, I responded: “stupid people live in all different countries.”
A familiar pattern of fundraising and deployment was playing out at ABC Learning. It was one I had seen before and one which often resulted in pear-shaped returns for equity investors. That was certainly the case at ABC, which subsequently blew up spectacularly. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular, Technology & Telecommunications.
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How much!?!?
Roger Montgomery
August 17, 2026
How much do the artificial intelligence (AI) hyperscalers’ businesses need to make from selling their AI tools in order to generate a decent return?
The debate surrounding the Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) for big tech’s massive AI infrastructure expansion revolves around a core question: How much end-user revenue is required to cover hardware depreciation, energy costs, and capital costs?
With hyperscaler capital expenditure (capex) on track to surpass US$600 billion- $800 billion annually, several prominent analysts, venture capital firms, and investment banks have published frameworks and scenarios to quantify the revenue needed for a reasonable return.
Here are a handful. You can decide whether the targets are likely to be met. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Investing Education, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.
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Right now, concentration is your portfolio’s biggest threat
Roger Montgomery
July 30, 2026
On the surface, markets appear remarkably resilient, so if you’ve felt a sense of calm looking at your portfolio performance lately, you aren’t alone.
But look beneath the surface and the structural fragility you’ll see in valuations, government debt, and global trade makes holding a narrow, concentrated equity portfolio (including any portfolio largely invested in index ETFs) one of the more dangerous bets an investor can make right now. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Intrinsic Value, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular, Technology & Telecommunications.
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The Big Short targets AI
Roger Montgomery
July 8, 2026
If you’ve been following our blogs and Montgomery Minutes about noted short seller Michael Burry, you’ll know he’s been making headlines this year for shorting the artificial intelligence (AI) bubble. Late last week, he reported he has again increased those short bets.
If you haven’t been following our posts on the subject, Michael Burry is the former chief of the now-closed hedge fund manager Scion Asset Management and was immortalised by Michael Lewis in his 2010 book The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine, which reported on Burry’s large asymmetric bets against the 2008 U.S. housing bubble. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.
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Australia’s property earthquake aftershocks
Roger Montgomery
July 3, 2026
The latest property data confirm that Australian national aggregate home prices declined by 0.3 per cent to 0.4 per cent in June 2026 – marking the third consecutive month of declines and pushing values roughly 0.9 per cent below their autumn peak.
The downturn is being felt most acutely by the major capital cities; over the June quarter, Sydney and Melbourne slumped by 2.9 per cent and 2.6 per cent respectively, while Adelaide and Brisbane have completely flattened out.
And it’s not just prices plunging. The price correction is mirrored by a dramatic collapse in auction clearance rates, which plummeted to a six-year low in late June, hovering below the 50 per cent threshold at a weighted national average of roughly 47 per cent to 48 per cent –levels not seen since the initial economic shocks of the pandemic in April 2020. Labor’s impact on property is as significant as a global pandemic. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Property.
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Summarising my current AI thesis – Part 2
Roger Montgomery
July 27, 2026
How to respond
Across my articles and media commentaries, I have emphasised that preparing for an artificial intelligence (AI) re-pricing is not about timing a top or shorting tech, but rather about protecting capital through discipline, factor balance, and liquidity.
There are five primary strategies to insulate an investment portfolio from an AI re-rating:
- Diversify away from equity index heavyweights
Broad, passive equity indices (such as the S&P 500 or Nasdaq) are historically concentrated. Passive flows into index funds mean a significant portion of an investor’s exposure is tied to six or seven AI-driven mega-caps.
Rebalance away from broad index funds that leave up to 60 per cent of equity risk tied to the AI trade. Investors might also consider locking in recent gains and diversifying equity exposure across unsung, non-AI themes. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.
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A bullish investor’s reminder
Roger Montgomery
July 31, 2026
Every time the stock market stumbles a percentage point or two, headlines invariably scream the same ominous question: Is the big market crash finally here?
It’s easy to sympathise with investor nervousness, despite the S&P500 being less than three per cent from all-time highs. Tensions overseas are triggering spikes in energy prices as strategic reserves are depleted, inflation persists at rates well above central bank preferences, interest rates remain unpredictable, and tech valuations and AI-related spending seem perpetually stretched.
But look beneath the surface of recent market pullbacks, and a different picture emerges.
It helps to understand the mechanics of market volatility, which isn’t about predicting the exact day a dip will happen, but rather recognising the difference between run-of-the-mill turbulence and structural damage. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
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Turning the page from Fiscal 2026 to Fiscal 2027
David Buckland
July 2, 2026
As we begin Fiscal 2027, it is worth taking a step back to reflect on the major themes that shaped global markets over the past year. I explore the key developments across equities, bonds, interest rates, commodities and currencies, and consider what they may mean for investors going forward.
From Magnificent Seven to Memory Seven
In the three calendar years 2023-2025, the Magnificent Seven (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla), rose by an average 333 per cent, turning $1.00 into $4.33.
That strong upward trajectory came to an end in the six months to June 2026, with an average decline of 2 per cent. With Microsoft (-23 per cent),Meta (-15 per cent) and Tesla (-6 per cent) leading the fall.
The baton has been passed to the “Memory” sector with an average 419 per cent capital appreciation across seven companies in six months to June 2026 being reported, namely: SanDisk (+858 per cent), Kioxia (+759 per cent), Micron Technology (+304 per cent), SK Hynix (+305 per cent), Intel (+278 per cent), Marvell Technology (+251 per cent) and Samsung (+177 per cent). Continue…by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Financial Services, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Popular, Property.
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Summarising my current AI thesis – Part 1
Roger Montgomery
July 27, 2026
Last week, Google reported its first ever quarter of negative cash flow, surprising analysts who thought Q1 2027 would be when pressure on cash flows could seriously emerge, and causing the share price to plunge more than seven per cent.
With the clear exception of Tesla, most of the Mag 7 once deserved high earnings multiples because they were asset-light businesses with competitive advantages that didn’t require money to be defended. The artificial intelligence (AI) race has quickly eroded those moats and their characterisation as asset-light, because, over the last two years, they have had to spend hundreds of billions building data centres to remain competitive. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.
Right now, concentration is your portfolio’s biggest threat. Learn why here.
