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With public markets more volatile there’s a growing focus on investments that can deliver regular income with less reliance on market movements.

Australian private credit stands out because it’s built more conservatively and with a clear focus on protecting investor capital, supported by a robust regulatory framework and the transparency of the Personal Property Securities Register (PPSR), which clearly defines lender priority. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Editor's Pick, Whitepapers.

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The traditional 60/40 portfolio approach is proving less effective at balancing risk and return in today’s environment, particularly as the historical relationship between equities and bonds has shifted. Where bonds once tended to rise when equities fell, both asset classes have at times moved in the same direction during periods of persistent inflation and policy uncertainty, weakening diversification benefits. At the same time, elevated equity valuations, increased concentration in major indices and higher government debt levels have contributed to a more volatile and policy-sensitive market backdrop. As a result, some investors are reassessing how capital is allocated and how diversification is achieved. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Whitepapers.

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I joined Niav Owens on ABC Newcastle Mornings to discuss the growing divide between market bulls and bears, and how artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping the investment landscape. We explored why investors are becoming increasingly optimistic about AI’s long-term potential and the productivity gains it could unlock across the economy. We also discussed the risks rising inflation, higher bond yields and elevated interest rates could pose to markets and asset valuations if economic conditions deteriorate.

Listen to the segment here: ABC Newcastle Mornings Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market Valuation, Radio.

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There’s been a conga line of prognosticators who have forecast falling house prices. All of them have faded into history as house prices have grown since the 1970s, first at the rate of inflation, then at the rate of wage growth, then at the rate of Artemis II launch.

Recently, Money.com.au contracted Primara Research to produce a forecast of Aussie house prices for 2030 under a variety of interest rate, supply, and unemployment scenarios. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Property.

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The gigawatt IPOs

Ahead of a multi-billion-dollar Australian data centre Initial Public Offering (IPO), many local investors are taking a particular interest in the sector, swatting up on everything they can learn. Of particular interest are the latest developments at Datacentre hopeful Fermi America.

In the age of Agentic Artificial Intelligence (AI), building the world’s largest data centre sounds like a license to print money. But as Fermi America shareholders are currently discovering, even having the former U.S. Secretary of Energy as a co-founder and the Trump name on the door doesn’t make concrete pour any faster. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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In a fascinating Wall Street Journal (WSJ) article, published this week, the U.S. state of Wyoming reportedly bought 2,312 ounces of gold in December after passing a law requiring the state’s investment portfolio to add precious metals as a hedge against economic turmoil.

According to the WSJ, “Among [Wyoming’s] worries are rising federal debt, inflation and a weak U.S. dollar – but also more extreme calamities, according to Bob Ide, a Republican state senator and lead sponsor of the ‘Wyoming Gold Act.”

For me, however, it was Ide’s comment about a U.S. default that piqued my interest, and should yours. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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Red Corner (Bull) Ed Yardeni

I have written about and referenced both gents for years, and if you’d like to hear from them first-hand, you can subscribe to their musings on Substack. In the red corner is Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research and in the blue (bearish corner) is Michael Burry. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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China has supported a ceasefire in the Middle East and JD Vance made his first pilgrimage to meet with senior Iranian leaders. And while Donald Trump’s exit would inevitably be messy, and riddled with false starts, it seems reasonably safe to assume the process of ending the conflict began last month.

It seems the market received the brief. The ASX 200 is up almost 6 per cent from its March 23 lows, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are up 11 per cent and 17 per cent, respectively, from their lows on March 30.

The remaining question for investors is what happens next.

This article was first published in The Australian on 24 April 2026. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.

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The upcoming listing of Firmus on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) is being pitched as a generational opportunity to capitalise on the artificial intelligence boom, yet a closer examination of the company’s artificial intelligence (AI) Factory model reveals a series of architectural and financial cracks that prospective investors should scrutinise. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.

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An oft-made and persistent mistake investors make is assuming what’s worked recently will continue to work indefinitely.

Referred to as ‘representativeness” it’s a psychological recency bias trap. Essentially, the comfort of the current winners prompts us to ‘bottom drawer’ them and simultaneously blinds us to the inevitability of economic cycles. Indeed, despite historical evidence of economic cycles and industry leadership change, we prefer the path of least resistance, which means hanging onto current winners, hoping they will always be so. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Manufacturing, Market Valuation.

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