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Yesterday on Ausbiz with Juliette Saly, I discussed why record-high markets may carry more risks than opportunities. While the artificial intelligence (AI) boom has powered enthusiasm, I cautioned that valuations across the broader market are now at unprecedented levels, with all companies effectively being priced as winners – something history shows is unsustainable. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.

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I joined Paul Turton on ABC Newcastle Mornings yesterday to discuss how markets remain strong but expensive, with investors shifting from artificial intelligence (AI) stocks to safer sectors like healthcare and utilities. Despite record highs, valuations suggest future returns may be lower. I explained that while a correction isn’t inevitable, there are promising opportunities in smaller, innovative companies that are starting to outperform larger ones.

You can listen to the full episode from 39:45 here: ABC Newcastle Mornings

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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For every equity that trades, there is a buyer and seller. Often there are functional reasons for selling, such as paying down a loan, paying tax, distributing an inheritance, or meeting retirement spending needs. Putting those aside, another reason for selling is the harbouring of a negative outlook on the share market in general or the sector or individual stock. But there is also a buyer on the side, who may hold the polar opposite view and outlook.

And if we assume both investors have access to the same information, the difference in outlook can only be attributed to a difference in perception.

Take for example the spending by artificial intelligence (AI) hyperscalers on their infrastructure buildout, estimated to be US$3 trillion by 2029. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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In this week’s video insight, I look at the dynamics behind major technology booms – from steam trains and commercial flight to the internet and now artificial intelligence (AI). In Part 1 of this two-part series, I outline the typical signs of a bubble: including soaring share prices, circular deals between companies, rising sales on credit, and financial engineering that makes growth look stronger than it truly is. We’re seeing many of these patterns in today’s AI boom. In Part 2, I’ll explain how these booms have typically unwound. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Technology & Telecommunications, Video Insights.

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Today on Ausbiz I joined Juliette Saly to discuss why artificial intelligence (AI) remains a powerful long-term thematic but is now exhibiting classic bubble warning signs. We need to question whether the exponential share-prices, circular vendor-financing deals, and the huge capital expenditure (CapEx) that we are seeing today, are sustainable.

While AI will undoubtedly transform the world, the economics underpinning today’s spending frenzy look increasingly stretched, with key leaders unable (or unwilling) to explain how trillion-dollar commitments will be funded. In times like these, disciplined rebalancing is a smart approach.

Watch the episode on Ausbiz here: What Nvidia could be telling us about an AI bubble Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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From South Sea to AI: Artificial Intelligence (AI) companies seem to be asking investors the question: Just how long can growth be built on the question of future returns – and a productivity revolution – that are by no means guaranteed?

The South Sea Bubble of 1720 remains the archetype of a financial mania driven by exotic new ‘tech’, the promise of monopoly returns, and limitless public imagination.

At first, the idea of comparing the South Sea bubble to an AI boom 305 years later seemed far-fetched. AI is not, for example, a Ponzi scheme being promoted by those who fail or refuse to publish financials or forecasts of how profits will be made. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Back in October, I examined the emerging trend of interest rate cuts across the Western world, looking at why they were occurring and how different economies were responding. Since then, rate cuts have continued in several countries. In this update, I return to the same six economies (Australia, the U.S., the UK, Europe, Canada, and New Zealand), incorporating more recent inflation expectations and labour-market data to assess what these developments may signal for 2026.
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by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary.

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With that caveat out of the way, I am reasonably confident we should expect greater volatility and lower returns in 2026. Let me explain why I think that’s a reasonable assessment.

Since 2022, I have suggested that investors maintain a bullish disposition.

This article was first published in The Australian on 04 December 2025. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press.

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Today on Ausbiz I joined Sue Lannin to discuss the striking similarities between the 2011 iron ore boom and today’s artificial intelligence (AI) investment frenzy. Back then, surging optimism and over-investment in mining services ended abruptly when supply outstripped demand. I’m seeing echoes of that now in AI, with forecasts of trillions in annual spending that don’t appear sustainable or supported by realistic revenue. With companies like Meta and Microsoft already under pressure, I believe we’re nearing the end of this boom as investors start questioning whether the numbers truly add up.

Watch the episode on Ausbiz here: What does the AI Boom have to do with iron ore?

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in TV Appearances.

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I joined Angus Randall and Julia Bergin from ABC The world to discuss why, despite artificial intelligence’s (AI’s) enormous long-term promise, early investors often face the highest risks. History shows that major technology advancements usually go through a boom–bust cycle, which is why caution – not blind optimism – is essential right now.

Catch the segment here: Calls to boost Australian investment in AI. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.

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