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Since inflation peaked at 9.1 per cent in mid-2022, consumer prices have cooled dramatically, job growth has dwindled from nearly 4 per cent annually to a meagre 0.9 per cent, nominal gross domestic product (GDP) expansion has halved from 10 per cent to 4.6 per cent, and commodity prices have dropped 15 per cent. Despite all of this, bond yields have stubbornly refused to ease. Mainly hovering between 4 per cent and 5 per cent – and sitting at around 4 per cent today – bullish investors argue these yields are oddly, and unjustifiably, detached from the underlying economic slowdown. Real activity has tapered and consumer price index (CPI) inflation has plummeted to 2.9 per cent. So why haven’t yields collapsed? Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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In the past 14 months, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has cut its cash rate on seven separate occasions by an aggregate 3.0 per cent from 5.5 per cent to 2.5 per cent, as seen in Table 1.

Table 1. Reserve bank of New Zealand rate cuts Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Property.

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If you’re tracking equities, it’s vital to keep an eye on the bond markets, as they’re signalling genuine unease. That nervousness is now rippling through global economies. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary.

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Over the last month, the U.S. stock market has shown signs of shifting priorities. That’s because, surprisingly, the top-performing sectors weren’t the usual suspects. They weren’t the high-flying artificial intelligence (AI), technology, or defence industries, but the more stable and defensive healthcare, utilities, and gold sectors. These sectors, seen as safe havens, suggest that at least some investors are bracing for turbulence.

It certainly raises the question: Are cracks forming in this bull market? Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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With markets hitting record highs, debt warnings echoing, and artificial intelligence (AI) reshaping everything, there’s plenty to unpack. Here’s a quick look at four key topics of investor conversations.

Ray Dalio’s debt warning and the case for gold and bitcoin

The billionaire founder of hedge fund leviathan Bridgewater Associates, Ray Dalio, is a man fond of predicting recessions and crises. His are a reminder that in order to be an accurate forecaster, you merely have to forecast often. Eventually, you’ll be right, just as a stopped clock is right twice a day. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.

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In the sun-drenched suburbs of Sydney and the graffiti-covered laneways of Melbourne, electric vehicles (EVs) are silently zipping around, charging up in garages, and bringing smiles to the faces of those who voted for Labor’s march toward net zero.

It is, without doubt, a feel-good story: cleaner air for the user, reduced emissions for the suburb, and tech-savvy signalling to everyone else on the road. But beneath the glossy ads and government incentives lies a darker undercurrent – one that cybersecurity experts, former military leaders, and national security advisors have recently shouted from the rooftops. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Manufacturing.

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In this week’s video insight, I tackle the question I’m most often asked  – is the market going to crash? The truth is, no one knows. While valuations across measures like price-to-earnings and market-cap-to-GVA suggest markets are expensive, they can stay that way for a long time. Rather than selling out, investors should consider rebalancing – trimming profits from equities that have grown beyond their target allocation and reallocating to alternatives such as private credit or arbitrage strategies. This approach helps manage risk and reduce anxiety without trying to time the market’s next move.

For more information, give David Buckland or Rhodri Taylor a call on (02) 8046 5000. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Video Insights.

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We are in very unique times. In 1963, the late Sydney Homer published the first edition of his book A History of Interest Rates. Covering 4000 years of interest rate history, and now in its fourth edition, the book has become a classic in the fields of finance and economics. 

Nowhere in Homer’s pages however do you ever read zero interest rates.

So that is how extraordinary and abnormal the last 10 years has been. Human history has not hitherto experienced the zero interest rates we have all now experienced in the last decade or so. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Foreign Currency, Global markets, Market commentary.

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In this episode of Over the Money Fence, I joined Nicola and Di to unpack two of the most talked-about assets right now – gold and Bitcoin. We explored why gold has surged to record highs, and I explained why investors often turn to it in times of uncertainty. Gold can feel like a safe haven against fears of currency devaluation, central bank policy shifts, or geopolitical risks, but at its core, it’s more of a bet on fear than a long-term investment. I also touched on the practical ways Australians can gain exposure to gold, from bullion and exchange-traded funds to gold mining shares, and the unique costs and risks attached to each. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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As investors, we have a particular interest in Australia’s condition, its desirability as a destination for living and its quality as a destination for investing. For some time now, I have feared better destinations exist elsewhere. Whether deliberate or unwitting, the government is not prioritising the betterment of the nation. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Property.

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