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I joined Kylie Morris on ABC Newcastle Mornings today to discuss the extraordinary rise of SpaceX following its record Initial Public Offering (IPO). We explored why the company’s valuation appears disconnected from traditional measures of value, how NASDAQ’s fast-tracked index inclusion could force ETFs and superannuation funds to buy shares, and why investors should be mindful of the risks that can emerge when market hype and scarcity drive prices higher.

Listen from 37:04: ABC Newcastle Mornings Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Global markets, Market Valuation, Radio.

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In this video I discuss Aussie Broadband (ASX: ABB), a growing challenger in Australia’s retail broadband market with around 15 per cent of the NBN market across its retail and wholesale services.

The company has delivered double-digit organic sales growth alongside acquisitions, while increasing scale may support further growth and operating efficiencies. Earnings are expected to grow over the next two years, supported by a cashflow-generative business and relatively low gearing.

While concerns around competition from Starlink have recently weighed on the share price, I explain why the current valuation may offer an attractive entry point if ABB continues to execute on its growth strategy. Continue…

by Gary Rollo Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular, Small Caps, Stocks We Like, Video Insights.

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In my latest article for The Australian, I examine how investor attention has been almost completely hijacked by artificial intelligence (AI), leaving gold largely overlooked despite many of the conditions that have historically supported it. In theory, an era of mounting sovereign debt, structural inflation and geopolitical uncertainty should favour gold. If today’s AI enthusiasm eventually gives way to a market correction, investors may find themselves giving gold a second look… 

Download the article here: Don’t write off gold’s polish – it could save you from an AI crash Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, In the Press, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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In my latest article for The Australian, I argue that the S&P 500 is no longer the diversified benchmark many investors believe it to be. With an increasing share of the index now driven by the artificial intelligence (AI) theme, concentration risk is at extreme levels. History suggests these periods don’t last forever, making quality companies and genuine diversification worth a closer look.

Download the article here: AI boom turns S&P 500 into a dangerous bet

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, In the Press, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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This week I am back with Over The Money Fence with Nicola Dale and Di Edwards.

This series aims to help you take control of your finances with clarity and confidence. In this episode, we go through the biggest bombshells from this year’s budget and what the practical implications are for you and your money. I explain why the changes to the budget don’t actually benefit young Australians, and therefore positioning it in this way is simply untrue. 

We talk about the hype around SpaceX being publicly listed, overtaking Amazon in market value, and I share my thoughts on whether the hype is real or if this company has been overvalued. 

We also discuss private credit funds and why they can be a good investment option for people that want good returns without the volatility of the share market.

I loved having this conversation with Nicola and Di in the studio, helping to make them and our listeners feel more calm and confident about their financial decisions. We hope you enjoy this episode as much as we did. 

Tune into past episodes of Over the Money Fence here. 

For further information, please contact David Buckland, Chief Executive Officer or Rhodri Taylor, Account Manager on (02) 8046 5000 or investor@montinvest.com. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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In my latest article for The Australian, I argue that the extraordinary enthusiasm surrounding SpaceX’s Initial Public Offering (IPO) may be a warning sign that markets are entering a late-stage speculative phase. Drawing parallels with major thematic IPOs that preceded previous market peaks, I examine how Fear of Missing Out (FOMO), passive investment flows, Artificial Intelligence (AI)-driven optimism and a growing disconnect between valuations and fundamentals are creating conditions that resemble past market bubbles. The key question for investors is whether today’s market is being driven by sustainable earnings growth or by speculation that could ultimately prove unsustainable.

Download the article here: Gravity-defying SpaceX IPO flags warning of market crash landing

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, In the Press, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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As I have written many times, Australia’s Household Debt to Disposable Income Ratio has jumped more than fourfold to around 180 per cent over the past 50 years, making us one of the more indebted societies of the 38 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries.

Preeminent financial journalist of many decades, Robert Gottliebsen, recently argued a 10 per cent decline in house prices was the equivalent to around three 0.25 per cent interest rate increases for the average Australian consumer. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources.

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I speak with Brett Craig, Director of Private Credit at Aura Credit Holdings, about the key differences between the Australian and U.S. private credit markets, and why the risks making headlines overseas may not necessarily translate directly to Australia. We discuss how differences in borrowers, lending structures, loan duration, asset security and legal frameworks can result in very different risk profiles.

We also explore Aura Private Credit’s approach, including its focus on established businesses, asset-backed lending, shorter-duration loans and portfolio diversification. Brett explains why understanding how a manager generates returns, manages liquidity and protects against potential losses can be more important than simply comparing headline yields.

Learn more about private credit. 

Alternatively, you can speak with David Buckland or Rhodri Taylor here at Montgomery on (02) 8046 5000. Continue…

by Scott Phillips Posted in Aura Group, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Popular, Video Insights.

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I speak with Brett Craig, Director of Private Credit at Aura Credit Holdings, about how independent credit analysis can help investors and advisers better understand and compare risk across private credit portfolios.

Brett explains how Aura works with Open Analytics to independently assess its portfolios each month using bank-grade credit risk methodologies. The analysis considers every underlying loan, incorporates changing economic conditions and runs one million Monte Carlo simulations to assess expected credit losses and portfolio resilience. The resulting S&P-equivalent credit ratings provide advisers and investors with an additional, objective tool to support due diligence and understand the underlying risk within Aura’s private credit portfolios.

Learn more about private credit. 

Alternatively, you can speak with David Buckland or Rhodri Taylor here at Montgomery on (02) 8046 5000. Continue…

by Scott Phillips Posted in Aura Group, Editor's Pick, Popular, Video Insights.

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I speak with Brett Craig, Director of Private Credit at Aura Credit Holdings, about how Aura structures its private credit portfolios with multiple layers of protection aimed at preserving investors’ capital. Brett explains how this begins with selecting quality Australian businesses, rigorous credit assessment and tangible loan security, before adding further protection through lender equity that sits below Aura’s investment in the capital structure.

We also discuss the role of diversification across thousands of underlying loans, short loan durations of typically three to five months, and independent monthly risk assessments by Open Analytics. Together, these measures are designed to manage risk across the portfolio and provide multiple avenues of protection should a borrower experience financial difficulty.

Learn more about private credit. 

Alternatively, you can speak with David Buckland or Rhodri Taylor here at Montgomery on (02) 8046 5000. Continue…

by Scott Phillips Posted in Aura Group, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Video Insights.

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