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Today on Ausbiz with Juliette Saly, we explored why global stock markets are hitting new highs despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. You’d be forgiven for expecting markets to react negatively given the conflict in the Middle East, rising bond yields, Trump tariffs, and recent interest rate cuts. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Global markets, TV Appearances.

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With apologies to William Shakespeare, signs of a bit of froth and frenzy have begun to be acknowledged in markets this last week. As we have previously noted, liquidity is the fuel for such episodes, and as long as liquidity remains abundant, we should expect more, rather than less, evidence of irrationality. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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This morning, I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss the Reserve bank of Australia’s (RBA) surprise decision to hold rates at 3.85 per cent, despite earlier expectations of a cut. Governor Michele Bullock made it clear the RBA is prioritising quarterly data over monthly figures, citing volatility in the latter. With June quarter inflation data due at the end of this month the odds of a rate cut in August remain high. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in TV Appearances.

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In my latest article for Nabtrade, I explore why markets continue to climb despite ongoing global uncertainty.

Momentum in sectors like artificial intelligence (AI) and expectations of policy support are helping to overshadow global uncertainty. However, elevated valuations and Trump’s unpredictability suggest a degree of caution would still be wise for investors. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in On the Internet.

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In this week’s video insight I explore signs that today’s bull market may be showing signs of a bubble. The bulls point to two key observations supporting the markets’s strength. First, market breadth is widening – with more stocks joining the rally. And second, earnings momentum is improving with over 80 per cent of U.S. companies seeing positive earnings revisions. 

While these observations appear supportive on the surface, they can also be read as signs of a maturing bull market edging towards a bubble. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Video Insights.

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There is considerable academic and market commentary showing that equity markets often take time – sometimes weeks or months – to digest new information fully.

While Eugene Fama’s efficient market hypothesis posits that prices reflect available information almost instantly, we know that information is not evenly distributed. For example, studies on “post-earnings announcement drift” demonstrate that after companies release quarterly results, share prices tend to drift in the direction of the earnings surprise for an extended period. This implies investors initially underreact. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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This morning on Ausbiz with Juliette Saly, we unpacked the confusing signals coming from global markets. Despite geopolitical turmoil, rising inflation expectations, and forecasts of rate cuts – which usually signal economic weakness – equity markets are hitting all-time highs, credit spreads remain narrow, and liquidity appears abundant. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in TV Appearances.

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This morning i joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss how investors should focus on central bank actions rather than rhetoric – given liquidity continues to be a key driver behind today’s market momentum. Over the past year, global liquidity has surged by around US$10 trillion, helping to fuel the dramatic rise in equities, defence stocks, and artificial intelligence (AI). Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in TV Appearances.

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With markets hitting record highs, debt warnings echoing, and artificial intelligence (AI) reshaping everything, there’s plenty to unpack. Here’s a quick look at four key topics of investor conversations.

Ray Dalio’s debt warning and the case for gold and bitcoin

The billionaire founder of hedge fund leviathan Bridgewater Associates, Ray Dalio, is a man fond of predicting recessions and crises. His are a reminder that in order to be an accurate forecaster, you merely have to forecast often. Eventually, you’ll be right, just as a stopped clock is right twice a day. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.

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Yesterday afternoon I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss Michele Bullock’s decision to hold the cash rate. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cited that monthly data is erratic and therefore they are waiting for more reliable quarterly figures. A rate cut later this year remains a strong possibility. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Radio.

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