Recently, a friend recommended John Anderson’s Conversations podcast on Spotify. 

One of the more immediately relevant is Anderson’s interview with former senior Treasury official David Pearl.

Listening, I discovered, beyond the discussion about the energy transition, that Australia’s decline – a decline I believe many are now witnessing and believing – is not fate but the product of bad choices made by the people running our institutions.

David Pearl is a former assistant secretary of the Australian Treasury and now a full-time writer and commentator on economic and cultural policy. He spent some three decades in the federal bureaucracy, with postings to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in the late 1990s and a period as the Treasurer’s representative in the United States, working across taxation, fiscal management and energy policy. He writes regularly for The Australian and The Spectator Australia and appears frequently on Sky News, where he has been among the most persistent critics of Treasury’s modelling of the renewable energy transition. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary.

The Energy Institute’s “Statistical Review of World Energy” for 2025 provides an interesting snapshot of how the world’s energy is supplied and, importantly, where Australia fits into the picture. The numbers reveal just how dependent we (and the rest of the world) are on oil, gas, and coal. But most interestingly, this report raises questions about Australia’s approach to nuclear energy, coal exports and decarbonisation. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.

In my latest article for The Australian, I explore the growing risks facing global markets as cracks emerge across technology, fixed income and inflation. With artificial intelligence (AI) investment increasingly circular, government debt climbing and inflation remaining stubborn, investors may need to prepare for a more volatile and challenging market environment.

Download here: Global markets face reckoning as triple threat fractures appear Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Editor's Pick, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss the Big Mac Index and how it uses the concept of purchasing power parity to assess whether currencies appear overvalued or undervalued. We also explored why the index has limitations as a measure of fair value, what it suggests about the Australian dollar, and the important differences between market pullbacks, corrections and crashes, highlighting why short-term volatility is a normal part of investing.

Listen in from 1:47:03: ABC Statewide Drive

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Radio.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Radio.

I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss the next phase of the artificial intelligence (AI) investment cycle and the growing divergence between the companies building AI infrastructure and the hyperscalers funding it. We explored the risks posed by mounting AI capital expenditure (capex), weakening cash flows, the emergence of lower-cost Chinese AI models and what could happen if hyperscalers begin slowing investment. We also discussed why investors may benefit from looking beyond momentum-driven technology stocks towards high-quality, value-oriented businesses and other defensive assets.

Watch the full episode on Ausbiz here: Who really wins from the AI boom? Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Investing Education, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications, TV Appearances.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Global markets, Investing Education, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications, TV Appearances.

Australia’s August reporting season is now underway, with investors turning their attention from macroeconomic headlines to what ultimately matters most over the long term: company earnings and outlook statements.

This reporting season arrives against the backdrop of uncertainty in the economy. We expect strong results from major resource companies following a favourable year for commodity prices, while many consumer-facing and housing-related businesses may disappoint and are likely to deliver more cautious guidance as elevated interest rates, higher operating costs and ever-changing tax settings continue to pressure margins. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Popular.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Companies, Popular.

For some time now, I have been writing about the fundamental structural shift occurring in global asset allocation, and specifically, the figurative death of the traditional 60/40 portfolio.

For many years, the typical approach to wealth management and balanced portfolios was to allocate 60 per cent to growth equities for potential capital gains and 40 per cent to public bonds to provide stability and income. 

When a recession struck and equity markets ran into headwinds, central banks cut interest rates, driving bond prices higher and shielding portfolio returns by offsetting stock market losses. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Aura Group, Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

In this week’s Video Insight, I explain why market volatility is a normal part of investing. While market pullbacks can feel unsettling, history shows they’ve often been temporary and have regularly occurred even in years that finished with strong returns. The key is staying disciplined and keeping your focus on the long term. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Intrinsic Value, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Video Insights.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Intrinsic Value, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Video Insights.