Value.able

There have been volatile times recently on the ASX. With prices for oil, iron ore and coal falling sharply, the mood in the resources sector has turned decidedly sour. Further, the negative mood seems to have been adopted more broadly by the market, with a wide range of stocks showing meaningful price declines. continue…

by Tim Kelley Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market Valuation, Value.able.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market Valuation, Value.able

There are all sorts of coincidences that can be mistaken for signs that a crash is imminent. We don’t put much store in those, however it is never uninteresting reading about them. One that is gaining a little traction is something known as the Edifice Complex.

In conventional terms, the Edifice Complex is the desire to build lasting edifices or buildings as a legacy to one’s greatness. In today’s context, the Edifice Complex represents the historically coincident construction/completion of these buildings with stock market crashes. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Property, Value.able.

• 3 Comments
• save this article
• POSTED IN Insightful Insights, Property, Value.able

In this column published in the December/January issue of Money magazine, Roger covers why the benefits of fully franked dividends may have been overstated, especially when compared to the long term advantages to company from the retention and profitable reinvestment of earnings. Read here.

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Value.able.

• save this article
• POSTED IN In the Press, Value.able

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Value.able, Video Insights.

• watch video
• 3 Comments
• save this article
• POSTED IN Value.able, Video Insights

Be sure to watch this video from March 2013 (almost two years ago) and then read on…

It only takes three or four minutes to learn about the forces of supply and demand and their effect on prices.  It usually takes an entire semester to explain the forces of supply and demand to a first year university student so consider the few minutes you spend here a value-investing opportunity.

This week our friends at the ABC reported a painful situation in one of Australia’s important industries: “Activity in the resources sector continues to tumble, with a new government report showing investment commitments to major projects are now at the lowest level in more than a decade.” continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Value.able.

• watch video
• 3 Comments
• save this article
• POSTED IN Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Value.able

Europe and the Asia-Pacific regions account for the majority of Prada’s revenue, so it was no great surprise when Prada’s same store sales for the July 2014 half-year actually declined by 3 per cent on the previous year.

It is important to note that Chinese consumption accounts for nearly 30 per cent of global luxury goods, and around one-quarter of those purchases are made domestically and three-quarters are made when wealthy Chinese are abroad. The Chinese government’s anti-corruption and austerity measures will see pressure on the luxury goods market for the foreseeable future.

There will likely be a drag on Prada’s earnings from the planned store expansion (around 10 per cent or 60 stores) in the current financial year (to January 2015), the declining store productivity as well as the inventory build.

Another sector vulnerable to the aforementioned Chinese anti-corruption and austerity measures is gaming in Macau, and the October 2014 decline of 23 percent was the biggest year-on-year drop since the Macau government started issuing gaming revenue data in its current form in 2005.

by David Buckland Posted in Consumer discretionary, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Value.able.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Consumer discretionary, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Value.able

We have made much of the turnaround in markets that began with President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi’s ‘what ever it takes’ speech. Those famous words have been cited by many – including us – as marking the bottom for financial markets and the beginning of a recovery for Europe.

But former US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner made some surprising revelations about Draghi, as well as the stupidity of Europe’s elected leaders as they faced their financial crisis, in his memoirs Stress Test: Reflections on Financial Crises. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Value.able.

• 5 Comments
• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Insightful Insights, Value.able

Bruce Greenwald is the Robert Heilbrunn Professor of Finance and Asset Management at Columbia University, a dyed-in-the-wool Graham acolyte and the author of a multitude of books and papers on Value Investing including Value Investing From Graham to Buffett and Beyond.

At the 12th annual Post Keynesian Conference held on September 25th this year at the University of Missouri in Kansas City, Greenwald presented ‘Value Investing and the Mis-measures of Modern Portfolio Theory‘ as the plenary talk.

Instead of spending thousands of dollars learning how to become a “Property Millionaire” overnight, spend an hour or so with Bruce for free. The risk reward payoff is much more attractive.

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Value.able.

• watch video
• 5 Comments
• save this article
• POSTED IN Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Value.able

It doesn’t seem that long ago, but the Global Financial Crisis-inspired rout in the stock market began in late 2007 and even though it bottomed in March of 2009, the symptoms that triggered the collapse, are even worse today.

But before you go jumping at shadows keep in mind that while interest rates remain low, the status quo is very likely to be maintained. Indeed low or lower rates could trigger an equity bubble before any correction is experienced. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Property, Value.able.

• 3 Comments
• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Property, Value.able

Firstly, Seek Limited (ASX:SEK) subsidiary Zhaopin Limited (NYSE:ZPIN) received a boost when it reported 3Q14 revenue growth of 32 per cent year-on-year (YOY); and EBITDA growth of 34 per cent YOY.

We will be investigating why the unaudited result was so strong given the company had been growing at around 11 per cent YOY; and Zhaopin’s key competitor, JOBS, reported 3Q14 revenue growth of just 13 per cent YOY.  The result, which was reported under A-IFRS (Australian Accounting standards), will differ to the results prepared under GAAP for its US listing. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Financial Services, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Technology & Telecommunications, Value.able.

• 2 Comments
• save this article
• POSTED IN Financial Services, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Technology & Telecommunications, Value.able