Market commentary
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BUSINESS CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE GETTING WORSE
Andreas Lundberg
March 14, 2019
NAB’s February business survey, published 12 March, paints a truly bleak picture, particularly for retailers. It shows that Australian business conditions – namely, sales and profitability – are worsening at an accelerating pace. Not surprisingly, business confidence is also on the skids. continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Market commentary.
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Why we’re excited about the next market sell-off
Roger Montgomery
March 11, 2019
I think we could see another meaningful pullback in global equities, triggered by volatility in U.S. bond markets. It’s a scenario we are looking forward to as it creates a fresh opportunity to invest in quality businesses at the right price. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Say farewell to the infrastructure boom
Andreas Lundberg
March 6, 2019
In recent years, state budgets have benefited from rising revenues, particularly from stamp duty. But now that revenue stream is being squeezed, particularly in New South Wales and Victoria. This decline in revenue could be a real issue for businesses that rely on state infrastructure spending. continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Market commentary.
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Does criticism of Buffett signal a market top?
Roger Montgomery
February 28, 2019
For 10 years now, the S&P 500 has been on a run, soaring from under 800 points to around 2800 points. But is this as good as it gets for now? Warren Buffett seems to think so. And criticism of his recent investment decisions could signal that the market is due a breather. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary.
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How much volatility should we expect in 2019?
Roger Montgomery
February 27, 2019
The recent gyrations in world markets have befuddled investors, short sellers and commentators alike. I think we’ll see more of the same in 2019/20. Will this present good buying opportunities for investors who like to buy on the dips? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Why we think the market is still overvalued
Roger Montgomery
February 7, 2019
The recent falls in stock prices around the world have tempted many investors to dive in and grab some value. But we think this could be jumping the gun – many stocks could still have further to fall. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.
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Putting the recent global correction into perspective
Scott Phillips
February 1, 2019
As most Australians venture back to work throughout the month of January, it will be somewhat of a relief that global equity markets have staged a U-turn from the previous quarter and look set to post a solid positive return for the month (as at the time of writing, being 25/1/19 the MSCI World index MTD was 4.5 per cent higher). continue…
by Scott Phillips Posted in Market commentary.
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The year ahead, tell us what you think
Dean Curnow
January 25, 2019
Through late-December I was lucky enough to be on holiday with my partner and her family in sunny Hawkes Bay, New Zealand. Some of my joy was clouded by the wave of headlines, and seeing the performance numbers for December across world markets. continue…
by Dean Curnow Posted in Market commentary.
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Early signs of the negative wealth effect
David Buckland
January 17, 2019
The negative wealth effect from falling residential property prices combined with the podium position for Australian Household Debt to GDP (120 per cent) and Australian Household Debt to Disposable Income (200 per cent) is starting to bite. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.
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Farewell 2018, Hello 2019
David Buckland
January 2, 2019
As 2018 has drawn to a close, let’s take a look at the year that was. Excluding dividends, the Australian market declined 7.5 per cent over 2018 to 5,709 points. By August, the market was at 6,460 points, and the all-time high of 6,850 points recorded in November 2007 appeared to be within reach. However, the final four months of the year was a rough period for most equity investors. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.
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