Market commentary
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Why consumer-oriented stocks could soon struggle
Andreas Lundberg
September 17, 2018
While the Federal government continues to crow about the strength of the Australian economy, a worrying trend is occurring that is getting less attention: Australian households are saving less. Sooner or later, this trend will reverse. And when it does, consumer-oriented businesses will feel the heat. continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Consumer discretionary, Market commentary.
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Three sectors that could struggle in the year ahead
Roger Montgomery
September 7, 2018
Reporting season has produced some terrific results, with the combined earnings per share of companies reporting rising by almost 9 per cent. But a note of caution: it’s also highlighted that the road ahead could get bumpy for three key sectors of the economy. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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If you are going to forecast, forecast often
Roger Montgomery
August 30, 2018
My very good friend Graham Hand at Cuffelinks recently published a chart by Jon Boorman from Broadsword Capital (a US-based hedge fund) who “has been tracking the comments made by famous bears…” continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Australia leads the way on household debt
Andreas Lundberg
August 22, 2018
Australian households are far and away the most indebted among English-speaking nations. To my mind, it means the next interest rate move by the Reserve Bank will be down. If I’m right, then it may be time for investors to think about increasing their exposure to businesses that benefit from a weaker Aussie dollar. continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Eastern Australia’s drought is bad news for agribusinesses
Stuart Jackson
July 30, 2018
The worsening drought in Eastern Australia is resulting in increasingly difficult conditions for businesses right across the agriculture sector. And if official weather forecasts hold firm, it looks like things will be tough for some time to come. continue…
by Stuart Jackson Posted in Market commentary.
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WHITEPAPER
INTEREST RATES, THE BEST IT GETS. IT’S TIME TO DEPLOY CASH
Curious about the investment landscape in 2024? It appears that the current market offers a plethora of enticing opportunities for investors, a rarity not experienced since pre-pandemic times. This unique scenario stems from a confluence of factors, including elevated yields and comparatively rational equity valuations.
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Stock Bubble? Lessons from Dalio, Buffett and History
Roger Montgomery
July 3, 2018
As we are all well aware, central banks have been, through quantitative easing, suppressing interest rates since the GFC. Consequently, monetary policy has fueled unprecedented flows of institutional and private capital into real estate, private equity and stocks. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Farewell Fiscal 2018, Hello Fiscal 2019
David Buckland
July 3, 2018
As Fiscal 2018 has drawn to a close, let’s take a closer look at the financial year that was. Excluding dividends, the Australian All Ordinaries Index was up 9.1 per cent to 6,290, and much of this gain took place in the December 2017 half-year. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.
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The US market is massively overpriced – but is that a problem?
Roger Montgomery
May 23, 2018
The US bull market is now 110 months old, and many stocks are looking expensive – despite reports of exceptional profit margins. Which is why we continue to hold a larger proportion of our portfolio in cash than many, if not most, of our peers. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Which businesses could lose out if migrant numbers are cut?
Andreas Lundberg
May 10, 2018
The national debate over immigration policy has been heating up for some time. Clogged roads, crowded trains and buses, and surging house prices are just some of the issues being blamed on our increased migrant intake. So, which businesses would be impacted if the government tightens the tap? continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Market commentary.
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Investment Returns: 1900-2017
David Buckland
May 3, 2018
Any investor looking for long term context should read the Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2018 by Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton of the London Business School. They have analysed investment returns, volatility, and inflation from 23 countries since 1900. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
