Market commentary

November 19, 2025, marks Nvidia’s fiscal third-quarter earnings release for 2025 (Q325), and investors are holding their breath. The chipmaker, long the poster child for the artificial intelligence revolution, finds itself at a crossroads. With shares having pulled back almost 13 per cent in recent weeks amid heightened scrutiny, Q325 report could either reaffirm the explosive growth narrative driving technology valuations or fuel fresh doubts about an overheated artificial intelligence (AI) sector. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.

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On Monday the S&P/ASX 200 tumbled two per cent, led by a sell-off in tech stocks. It’s now down about seven per cent over the past month. Concerns about the end of the interest rate cycle in Australia, a lack of information on Wall Street and the forever present geopolitical fears seem to be weighing on investors.

On Fear & Greed, with Sean Aylmer, I explained that stretched valuations and a cooling of artificial intelligence (AI) optimism are prompting a shift in sentiment – but this isn’t a time to panic. It’s a reminder to rebalance, trim what’s run hard, and look to genuinely diversified, uncorrelated opportunities.

Tune in to the episode here: Q+A: What’s next after yesterday’s market tumble? continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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For every equity that trades, there is a buyer and seller. Often there are functional reasons for selling, such as paying down a loan, paying tax, distributing an inheritance, or meeting retirement spending needs. Putting those aside, another reason for selling is the harbouring of a negative outlook on the share market in general or the sector or individual stock. But there is also a buyer on the side, who may hold the polar opposite view and outlook.

And if we assume both investors have access to the same information, the difference in outlook can only be attributed to a difference in perception.

Take for example the spending by artificial intelligence (AI) hyperscalers on their infrastructure buildout, estimated to be US$3 trillion by 2029. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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In this blog post, I (finally) take the focus off the artificial intelligence (AI) boom/bubble. Instead, I want to look at whether there are other factors investors should be considering when it comes to time to rebalance portfolios, and as 2025 concludes and 2026 commences.

First – and granted this one’s a bit of fun – the Santa Claus rally. Is there any evidence that such a thing exists? continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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Investors must understand that correctly predicting artificial intelligence (AI) technology will change the course of humanity, even if for the better, does not automatically translate to desirable investment returns.

General Purpose Technologies (GPT) of the past, such as the automobile, electricity, commercial flight, steam locomotion and TV, have all changed the course of human history and yet more than a thousand car manufacturers have disappeared from the U.S. and none exist today that are profitable and have not been bailed out by government or private equity. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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This week, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) lifted the lid on the internal financial projections of OpenAI and Anthropic – the companies at the centre of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. 

By way of background, Dario Amodei, once a senior leader at OpenAI, parted ways with Sam Altman in 2021 amid strategic and perhaps personal differences and launched Anthropic that same year, seeded it with a $124 million Series A. The debut of ChatGPT in late 2022 blindsided the Amodei and handed OpenAI 100 million users overnight, along with an 18-month revenue lead. Anthropic pivoted sharply to enterprise-grade deployments of its Claude models, a bet that has now propelled its private-market valuation to $183 billion – still trailing OpenAI’s $500 billion mark, but closing the gap through disciplined business to business (B2B) focus. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.

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Today on Ausbiz I joined Juliette Saly to discuss why artificial intelligence (AI) remains a powerful long-term thematic but is now exhibiting classic bubble warning signs. We need to question whether the exponential share-prices, circular vendor-financing deals, and the huge capital expenditure (CapEx) that we are seeing today, are sustainable.

While AI will undoubtedly transform the world, the economics underpinning today’s spending frenzy look increasingly stretched, with key leaders unable (or unwilling) to explain how trillion-dollar commitments will be funded. In times like these, disciplined rebalancing is a smart approach.

Watch the episode on Ausbiz here: What Nvidia could be telling us about an AI bubble continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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Nvidia is increasingly finding itself at the centre of a growing list of round-robin style transactions between artificial intelligence (AI) players that are collectively raising the eyebrows of a variety of reputable investors and industry stalwarts, from Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates to famed short seller Michael Burry. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.

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Not only are stock market valuations stretched, but on the metrics that are most reliable for predicting future returns, the U.S. market is at an all-time high. We can say that factually and therefore categorically.  It’s not a matter of opinion. 

It’s worth remembering to bring everything back to the data to avoid the influence of emotions. 

The important question then is not whether reducing your exposure and rebalancing portfolios results in a missed opportunity to maximise gains, but whether you’ll regret not doing that, and instead of retiring in two years, being forced to work for another six or seven. Indeed, and upon reflection, there will always be regret; the decision is about which regret is worse. Letting gains evaporate might be worse than missing out on a few more dollars.

This article was first published in The Australian on 05 November 2025. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Global markets, In the Press, Market commentary.

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Wall Street’s S&P 500 dropped more than one per cent last week, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell three per cent. It’s really nothing in the scheme of things. That’s because the Nasdaq 100 is up more than 130 per cent in three years, and the S&P 500 is more than eighty-five per cent higher since October 2022. Nevertheless, last week’s turn-down was the worst week for the Nasdaq in seven months. What the index price declines perhaps don’t reflect, however, is a much sharper shift in the market’s risk appetite. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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