Market commentary

I am fascinated by the standard descriptions of returns cited by commentators in the real estate market. I am also disappointed that a regular opportunity to educate investors about returns is so frequently missed. 

Back in July, an article in The Australian Financial Review, entitled Renovators’ return: How to maximise property value in 2025, observed, “The nurse and engineer have transformed the house they bought in Adelaide’s seaside Glenelg for $450,000 back in 2012. They’re now looking to sell for $1.9 million, a four-fold return compared with the doubling of house prices over the same period.” continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Since the advent of the car, railroads or electricity, few technologies have captured investor imagination quite like generative artificial intelligence (GenAI).  

The debut of AI tools like ChatGPT has attracted billions in research and development (R&D) and related construction investment at the same time that share market investors have poured trillions into AI-related stocks, inflating valuations to levels that some suggest should make even the dot-com era blush.   continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Kenneth Rogoff, the American economist, chess Grandmaster, professor of international economics at Harvard University, former International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief economist and co-author of This Time is Different: Eight centuries of Financial Folly, has spent his career chronicling the anatomy of financial collapses. In his latest article for Foreign Affairs (Sep/Oct 2025), Rogoff issues a stark warning: the U.S. is flirting with a once-in-a-century debt crisis – and its current political and economic trajectory makes a crisis not just possible, but probable. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Foreign Currency, Global markets, Market commentary.

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Australia’s longstanding objection to nuclear power stems from a combination of historical, environmental, and political factors. The country has abundant uranium reserves but no operational nuclear power plants, with federal bans under the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 and the Australian Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety Act 1998 prohibiting their construction. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Market commentary.

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In an interview earlier this month, Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital  delivered his analysis of the global liquidity environment and its implications for financial markets. His message to investors was clear: liquidity, not interest rates or economic cycles, remains the true driver of asset performance – and right now, the liquidity tide is rising. But as always, tides reverse. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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With Jim Chalmers’, Treasurer of Australia, three-day roundtable kicking off yesterday, I thought it would be interesting to hear what different parts of the community were seeking. Of course, while collaboration is expected, consensus will be impossible, partly because of the diverse attendees, which includes representatives from the unions, government, business and civil society.

The other issue is that solutions require an understanding of the problem’s root cause.  And when we are talking about labour productivity, most cannot even agree on first principles. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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For the last month or two, I have been writing with increasing frequency about the possibility of the stock market boom transitioning into a bubble. There are a variety of reasons for this, and they usually fall under two broad headings. The first is technical and the second is behavioural. Often the latter influences the former, but the reverse can also be true, so let’s agree that the sets in the Venn diagram intersect. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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There’s some early evidence the equity boom is entering a bubble phase.

Bubbles can last and keep inflating for a long time. Missing out can be costly, but predicting the exact moment of a bubble’s demise is a waste of time. So, the right strategy isn’t prediction but rebalancing and a little tactical asset allocation. That way, you can remain invested and still outperform, if only relatively, even if markets pull back.

This article was first published in The Australian on 05 August 2025. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Market commentary.

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Parts of America’s industrial heartland are being transformed, and smokestacks and steel mills are being replaced by the scream of Graphic Proocessing Units (GPUs) housed inside concrete bunkers known as data centres. The transformation of parts of the U.S., such as Pennsylvania, is being mirrored globally as the world’s biggest tech names pour hundreds of billions into the physical infrastructure powering artificial intelligence. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary.

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With markets hitting record highs, debt warnings echoing, and artificial intelligence (AI) reshaping everything, there’s plenty to unpack. Here’s a quick look at four key topics of investor conversations.

Ray Dalio’s debt warning and the case for gold and bitcoin

The billionaire founder of hedge fund leviathan Bridgewater Associates, Ray Dalio, is a man fond of predicting recessions and crises. His are a reminder that in order to be an accurate forecaster, you merely have to forecast often. Eventually, you’ll be right, just as a stopped clock is right twice a day. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.

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