Market commentary

With all the chaos unfolding, unwinding and unfolding again in the Middle East, it’s easy to forget the bigger battle – the one for democracy in the U.S. – is still being waged. Back in early April, during the chaos of the tariff war-induced market turmoil, Donald Trump issued an executive order headed: “Maintaining Acceptable Water Pressure in Showerheads.” continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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The latest data out of China reveals the country is sliding deeper into deflation. In May 2025, consumer prices fell 0.1 per cent year-on-year, the fourth consecutive monthly decline, while producer prices plunged 3.3 per cent – the steepest drop since mid-2023. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Foreign Currency, Market commentary.

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Yesterday, I joined Paul Turton on ABC Newcastle Mornings to unpack the recent developments in the Middle East and their implications for global markets, with a specific focus on stock performance and oil prices. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio.

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Last night on ABC Nightlife with Tim Webster, we unpacked the impact geopolitical tensions can have on markets, the Australian housing market and China’s deflation dilemma. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio.

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Notwithstanding Trump’s concerted efforts to create disharmony, civil unrest and global tensions, there are three things that will determine broader equity market returns for investors. These are inflation, economic growth and liquidity. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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An article published by the Shanghai Metal Market on 7 June 2025, revealed that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) increased its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month, up 60,000 ounces month-on-month. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Foreign Currency, Global markets, Market commentary.

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Why is the stock market rising amid global conflicts in 2025?

In 2025, the world is grappling with significant geopolitical uncertainty. Tensions between the U.S. and China have wavered, the tragic conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated, and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine persists. Yet, despite these challenges, most major global equity indices have posted gains year-to-date. continue…

by Dean Curnow Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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Recently, I recorded a video discussing the U.S. bond market flashing red. That video, to our great surprise, went a little viral. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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I joined Kirsten Aiken on ABC News earlier this week to discuss the recent U.S.-China trade talks. While these discussions aimed to reinforce the trade truce established last month in Geneva, they primarily offered a framework without substantial new commitments, leaving investors largely unimpressed. The prevailing concern among investors, however, is the perceived gradual shift of the U.S. towards authoritarianism, which is creating significant unease in the markets.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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As an investor witnessing more than three decades of booms and busts, I find it increasingly difficult to separate investing from politics, especially when political figures have a harmful, toxic, and deleterious impact on investment performance. I am frequently told by those who disagree to stay in my lane and steer clear of politics, but under Trump, the two subjects are intertwined. I believe it’s impossible to peer into the future – where investment returns are produced – and ignore Trump’s impact, and therefore, his intentions. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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