Market commentary

With all the talk about a bubble in equities at the moment (I think we are a long way from the euphoria that typically defines bubbles), I thought it would be prudent to take a look at the recent forecasting track record of some of the biggest names in funds management and investment banking.  continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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I have often thought it is better to have qualifications in psychology rather than accounting, finance, or economics when it comes to being a successful, patient investor.  

Four years ago, on 11 March 2020, the World Health Organisation (WHO) officially declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic. Markets were smashed in a short time, with many indexes declining 30 to 40 per cent over February/ March 2020. In hindsight, opportunities became plentiful, however the ensuing “pandemic-related enthusiasm” was often misplaced. Hence, it is crucial to discern between a fad and something more permanent.   continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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In this week’s video insight, I discuss the promising potential for market rallies into 2026, driven by a combination of disinflation and positive economic growth. Highlighting observations and historical trends, I delve into why innovative growth companies, particularly those in the small-cap sector, are poised for significant gains after a period focused mainly on mega-cap technology stocks.  continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Small Caps.

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Attending my undergraduate degree in the early 1980s, there was a big focus on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. This meant economists took out the often-large stimulus from a rising population, and analysis was done over the population of the day. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.

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2023 marked a year of both challenges and opportunities for the Australian private credit market. On the one hand, the tighter credit conditions in the first half of the year saw decreased activity in mergers and acquisitions (M&A), project finance and real estate development financing. On the other, the latter part of the year boasted a more stable interest rate and inflation outlook, as well as improved credit margins, supporting more resilient private credit portfolios. 

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by Dean Curnow Posted in Market commentary.

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In this week’s video insight, I delve into the highlights of the February reporting season and its unexpected outcomes, a key period for those of us monitoring the Australian equity market. Despite a challenging economic backdrop, a noteworthy number of companies have outperformed expectations, bolstering my optimistic view on the potential of quality, innovative companies. As the season concludes, I offer my insights on the unexpected turns and the bright prospects for equity investors, reaffirming my bullish stance for the future.  continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Video Insights.

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Last year, investors who held a non-consensus bullish stance on equities saw their optimism rewarded as the market trended up through 2023. As we pivot into 2024, the outlook might appear to be more complex, but in reality, the preconditions remain the same: disinflation accompanied by positive economic growth. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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I joined Livewire to discuss the turbulent past six months faced by Qantas Airways (ASX:QAN), marked by controversies and a decline in consumer trust. Despite seemingly positive financial results, I share my concerns, casting doubt on the airline’s future profitability. I stress emphasis on the need for fleet upgrades and recommend reconsidering Qantas stock, citing its failure to keep pace with competitors. Read now: Qantas hits turbulence with “accounting and strategic trickery” and an ageing fleet

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, On the Internet.

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In the past 23 years, the U.S. has produced one budget surplus (fiscal 2001) and 22 budget deficits. The past four budget deficits, from fiscal 2020 to fiscal 2023, inclusively have seen an aggregate budget deficit of $9.0 trillion and an average annual budget deficit of U.S.$2.25 trillion.    continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.

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There’s no fundamental reason for bitcoin to rise other than it is becoming more popular. But as we all know, a shift in sentiment, while usually unpredictable, can have a meaningful impact on the listed price of an asset. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary.

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