Market commentary

How do you produce a ball of wool? Pull on the thread of a woollen jumper! What was once a fine, handmade piece of clothing can quickly become a jumbled mess on the floor, and all one has to do is pull on the thread.

I wonder whether that’s a fitting metaphor for what’s going on in equity markets right now. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Investors around the world are desperately trying to discern the future, and in particular, the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on it.

On the one hand, you have the hyperscalers warning of an apocalyptic future involving mass layoffs, business collapse and the creation of an omnipotent AI god.

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei says we’re nearing “the exponential”, where AI generates trillions of dollars and the economy grows 10-20 per cent a year. At the same time, Amodei says this new force with God-like abilities, requires regulation around “AI safety.” continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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This week on ABC Statewide Drive, I spoke about how artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping sharemarkets, prompting investors to reassess which business models are likely to benefit and which may face disruption.

Major technological shifts tend to reshape markets in unpredictable ways. In times like these, broad diversification and exposure to strategies that are uncorrelated to markets may help build more resilient portfolios. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio.

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It’s a shot across the bow. In recent weeks, short, sharp sell-offs across the largest global artificial intelligence (AI) hyperscalers have woken investors from their technology and AI-inspired slumber. In just six trading sessions, Microsoft fell 18 per cent. Meanwhile, Amazon has declined 14 per cent in eight sessions, and Google parent Alphabet has fallen 8 per cent in just four sessions. Elsewhere, Meta fell 10 per cent, and Tesla has declined almost 12 per cent in 10 trading sessions.

This article was first published in The Australian on 11 February 2026. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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Recognising this isn’t the first time I have expressed concern about the ultimate fate of humans in an artificial intelligence (AI) world, I pondered several AI-related questions over the weekend. 

The first is that if many, and maybe most, of us are using AI already – and some very effectively – with existing infrastructure, how many more data centres do we really need? Flipping the question, if the competition among AI agent providers is driving the cost of AI access down to zero – many use Google’s Gemini daily, and it costs nothing – for what purpose are a thousand more data centres really being built?

The second question is related: AI tools are already so ubiquitous and cheap they amount to a commodity. Consequently, AI infrastructure players may believe that to make any money, they’ll have to race to be the first to create something dangerously powerful. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Another week, another artificial intelligence (AI) powered disruption. This time, two big announcements from China that may threaten the valuations of the big U.S. hardware-centric tech giants. 

The news

First, the release of AI-produced hyper-realistic movie-quality video from the Chinese company ByteDance-owned AI Seedance 2.0 has gone viral and simultaneously rocked Hollywood by completely reframing what the movie industry thought was possible. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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For years, the financial markets operated under a “lower for longer” mantra that pushed investors further and further out on the risk curve. Starting with bonds, then equities, as a tidal wave of money pushed prices higher, investors were forced to consider alternatives such as private equity, cryptocurrencies, non-fungible-tokens (NFTs), and collectables. But as the tide of cheap liquidity slows, we are witnessing a classic sequence of correction. It begins at the most speculative fringes – the “canaries in the coal mine.” We’ve seen Bitcoin tumble from its speculative heights and the tech-heavy NASDAQ ease as investors quietly take money off the table, often driven by broader, unarticulated fears of a structural shift in liquidity and the global economy. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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In my first video insight for 2026, I explained that the era of easy investing is over. With valuations elevated, markets concentrated in a narrow group of stocks and volatility rising, I believe investors need to think more carefully about diversification.

That is why we continue to focus on strategies uncorrelated to markets, such as the Aura Private Credit Income Fund, which seeks to provide investors with access to regular income, and the Digital Asset Funds Management – Digital Income Fund, which seeks to profit from volatility and pricing inefficiencies across global asset exchanges.

These strategies may offer diversification benefits and alternative sources of income in a changing investment environment. If you would like to learn more about our offerings and whether they are appropriate for your circumstances, please fill in the form below to receive further information. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Video Insights.

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It’s been a chaotic morning for JB Hi-Fi (JBH) investors. If you’ve been watching the screens, you might have developed a mild case of whiplash. JB Hi-Fi shares opened over 5 per cent higher at around $80, fell to $72 (down 4 per cent), and have since clawed back above $80, reflecting a classic case of a solid half-year result clashing with a cautious outlook for the rest of 2026.

A solid 1H26 result

On the surface, JB Hi-Fi remains a poster child of execution. Sales and Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) were both up over 7 per cent year-on-year (YoY), largely meeting or exceeding consensus expectations. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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Following the release of its Half-Year 2026 (HY26) results, the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) finds itself at a crossroads, balancing record-breaking volumes with significant regulatory and management hurdles.

Volumes and new models

Despite the noise, the ASX’s core business is thriving. The HY26 results showed a significant growth beat, driven primarily by cash volumes, clearing, and bonds, with daily trading volumes having surged above $8 billion. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Market Valuation, Stocks We Like.

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