Market commentary

Last night, I appeared on ABC News to discuss Westpac’s (ASX:WBC) half-year financial results, where CEO Anthony Miller reported disappointing numbers. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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Australian investors, engrossed in the 2025 Federal Election, may have missed a seismic shift in the global financial landscape: Warren Buffett, the legendary investor and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, announced his retirement at the age of 94. On Saturday, during the company’s annual shareholder meeting in Omaha, Nebraska, Buffett revealed he would step down as CEO and chairman by the end of the year, handing the reins to Vice Chairman Greg Abel. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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Labor’s resounding victory at the weekend’s Federal Election, securing a second term with a strengthened parliamentary majority, defied predictions of a close contest, possibly reflects the idealism of a new generation of voters, and grants Labor a mandate to advance a socialist policy agenda.

Victoria’s fiscal challenges however are the result of a long-term Labor government running a socialist agenda that has now run out of other people’s money. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Economics, Market commentary.

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A great deal has already been written about President Trump’s tariff policies, which have ignited a fierce debate among global investors and reshaped the landscape of international trade and economic strategy.

If every nation played fair, laid down their weapons, worked in harmony, peace and unity for a global common good, there would be no need for tariffs. But of course, such a world doesn’t exist on this side of Armageddon. In a world shaped by competition, dishonesty and insecurity, Trump sees tariffs as a way of resetting the compass. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Australia’s aggressive pursuit of renewable energy, championed by the Teal independents and the Labor government, is sold as a path to cheaper electricity and a cleaner future. The promise is seductive: wind and solar will slash power bills while saving the planet.

Yet, recent events in Europe – most notably Spain’s massive blackout and Germany’s ongoing grid struggles – expose this narrative as dangerously naive. Forcing intermittent renewable energy onto aging grids without adequate investment in stability measures is a recipe for chaos, and this weekend, I suspect, Australia will vote to barrel down the same path. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Market commentary.

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In the days following Trump’s tariff announcement, the S&P 500 plunged 10 per cent in just two days, 10-year treasury yields swung wildly, and gold, after touching a peak, stumbled. Add to this the backdrop of escalating global trade tensions – think U.S.-China tariffs – and it’s no surprise that investors are on edge. Meanwhile, consumers are wrestling with their own worries about inflation, jobs, and the economy’s trajectory. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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The U.S is careening toward a potential recession, propelled by a dramatic escalation in trade barriers, including unprecedented tariffs on imports from China, one of its largest trading partners.

Economists believe the sweeping “Liberation Day” tariff initiative could trigger a sharp economic contraction by summer, and the fallout is already evident across corporate earnings, consumer behaviour, and global trade dynamics. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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President Donald Trump’s tariff policies have understandably sparked fierce debates, with supporters praising their intent to bolster American economic strength as a reflection of the nation’s geopolitical pre-eminence and critics warning of unintended fallouts.

At their core, these tariffs aim to reshape global trade dynamics in favour of the U.S. But are these measures a masterstroke for American prosperity, or do they risk unravelling the very economic stability they seek to secure? I thought it might be worth unpacking the motivations behind Trump’s tariffs, their potential upsides, and the complex consequences that could follow. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Every few years – usually after gold has enjoyed a significant rally (the narrative always comes after the fact) – headlines pop up with increasingly bold predictions: “Gold is going to US$20,000 an ounce!”

To anyone outside the financial world, and with gold trading at about US$3,285 an ounce as of 16 April 2025, that sounds like hitting the jackpot – especially if you’re already holding some gold.

But before you imagine retiring early, there’s some useful concepts to understand with respect to the drivers of gold’s price. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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One of my favourite movies of all time was a 1994 commercial flop. A comedy directed by the otherwise hugely successful Coen Brothers. The Hudsucker Proxy follows Norville Barnes, a naive young man from Muncie, Indiana, who arrives in New York City with big dreams and an invention. Barnes lands a low-level mail-room job at Hudsucker Industries just as the company’s founder, who is also its president, commits suicide by jumping out of a window. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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