Market commentary

With 41 per cent of S&P 500 companies having reported their actual results as of Friday, the tally so far appears to be more optimistic than anticipated. Here’s a breakdown of the scorecard so far, as presented by Factset. 

The earnings season has kicked off with a robust start:  continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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In July last year, here at the blog, I noted the AI bubble could only become a bona-fide boom if AI is monetised.  

Back then I noted Google’s (NASDAQ:GOOG) “significant strides in the integration and security of artificial intelligence (AI) in their products and services” and Meta’s (NASDAQ:META) plans to incorporate AI text, image, and video generators into Facebook and Instagram, allowing customers to modify their own photos using text prompts and share them on Instagram stories weren’t meaningful in terms of generating additional revenue from existing users. Sure, they might assist users, enhance their experience, and be entertaining, but would they be meaningful enough for users and advertisers to be willing to pay more? The jury was out.  continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Market commentary.

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Doom-and-gloomers, of which there are many, are the Henny Pennys of the financial world; those who constantly fear the sky will fall in, so warn others of its imminent inevitability. Are there any worth listening to? Perhaps we have found one.  continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Market commentary.

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On Monday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index reached a new all-time high, crossing the illustrious 8,000-point mark. For anyone closely tracking Australian equity markets over the last year, particularly those for large caps (notably the ASX 100 and ASX 200 indices), this may not come at a surprise. In fact, the S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index, which is most commonly used as a proxy for the broader Australian equity market, boasted a 12 per cent return for fiscal year 2024.   continue…

by Dean Curnow Posted in Market commentary.

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In what is perhaps a case of tail wagging the dog, a plunge in electric vehicle (EV) sales in Europe is causing at least one government there to revise the dates by which automotive manufacturers must transition to manufacturing only EVs. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.

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With all the talk about a bubble in equities at the moment (I think we are a long way from the euphoria that typically defines bubbles), I thought it would be prudent to take a look at the recent forecasting track record of some of the biggest names in funds management and investment banking.  continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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I have often thought it is better to have qualifications in psychology rather than accounting, finance, or economics when it comes to being a successful, patient investor.  

Four years ago, on 11 March 2020, the World Health Organisation (WHO) officially declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic. Markets were smashed in a short time, with many indexes declining 30 to 40 per cent over February/ March 2020. In hindsight, opportunities became plentiful, however the ensuing “pandemic-related enthusiasm” was often misplaced. Hence, it is crucial to discern between a fad and something more permanent.   continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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In this week’s video insight, I discuss the promising potential for market rallies into 2026, driven by a combination of disinflation and positive economic growth. Highlighting observations and historical trends, I delve into why innovative growth companies, particularly those in the small-cap sector, are poised for significant gains after a period focused mainly on mega-cap technology stocks.  continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Small Caps.

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Attending my undergraduate degree in the early 1980s, there was a big focus on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. This meant economists took out the often-large stimulus from a rising population, and analysis was done over the population of the day. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.

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2023 marked a year of both challenges and opportunities for the Australian private credit market. On the one hand, the tighter credit conditions in the first half of the year saw decreased activity in mergers and acquisitions (M&A), project finance and real estate development financing. On the other, the latter part of the year boasted a more stable interest rate and inflation outlook, as well as improved credit margins, supporting more resilient private credit portfolios. 

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by Dean Curnow Posted in Market commentary.

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