Market commentary
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Signs of change in China
Michael Gollagher
December 12, 2022
In the past week we have seen an ever-growing number of news stories around China and the changing tide in their stance towards COVID-19. Since the early days of the pandemic, they have pursued a policy of Zero COVID. No matter the economic or social damage this caused, this was their policy. continue…
by Michael Gollagher Posted in Market commentary.
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Will the RBNZ lift cash rates again?
David Buckland
November 23, 2022
To remind readers, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) was six months ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in commencing their tightening interest rate cycle on 6 October 2021. On eight occasions, the New Zealand official cash rate has been tightened to 3.5 per cent, and a ninth tightening is expected at RBNZ’s next meeting today, Wednesday 23 November. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.
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Is FTX’s collapse another chapter in the golden age of fraud?
Roger Montgomery
November 18, 2022
In the past week, much ink has been spilled on the multi-billion-dollar collapse of FTX, the crypto exchange started by one-time tech ‘wunderkind’, Sam Bankman-Fried. And no one, I believe, has summed up the situation better than Pete Drewienkiewicz, from UK broker Redington. It’s so spot-on, I’m just going to copy-paste it below. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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History shows us how rising rates affect equity returns
Roger Montgomery
November 11, 2022
Instead of trying to speculate when the market will turn around, I think investors would be better off focusing on changes in interest rates. After all, history teaches us that changes in interest rates, and the extent to which rates rise beyond consensus estimates, are a major determinant of price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios and, therefore, sharemarket returns. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Don’t get too comfortable: Bridgewater says there’s more pain ahead
Roger Montgomery
November 8, 2022
With U.S. and Australian equities having fallen for almost a year, many investors are starting to wonder if this bear market is coming to an end. After all, the average length of a bear market is 9.5 months, according to Investopedia. So, we’re getting close, right? Apparently not, say the analysts at Bridgewater Associates, the giant hedge fund started by Ray Dalio. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary.
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If history is our guide, then now is a great time to invest
Roger Montgomery
November 4, 2022
With stock markets – and most share prices – well off their highs, there’s plenty of historical data to suggest that now is an excellent time to invest. That’s because bull markets always follow bear markets. Thus, investors who buy shares in high quality companies today will not only benefit from the earnings growth produced by these businesses, but also from their re-rating to higher price-to-earnings ratios when markets recover. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Could the strengthening USD trigger a financial crisis?
Roger Montgomery
October 25, 2022
Dysfunction, disorderly, crisis, financial shock. These are not the words investors want to hear, but they are increasingly on the minds of some economists, analysts and investors. So, what factors have led to such a negative outlook? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Why I still prefer equities to bonds
Roger Montgomery
October 24, 2022
When markets are volatile – as they are right now – we start hearing more and more from commentators talking up the benefits of holding bonds in a portfolio. After all, bonds are regarded as safer and more stable than equities. But if you look at long-term returns, another picture emerges. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary.
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Aura Private Credit: Letter to investors 21 October 2022
Brett Craig
October 21, 2022
This week’s insights are focused on the RBA’s minutes released earlier in the week. The RBA has identified additional considerations being made that will influence their future rate decisions, with a hint of a slow down in rate rises. continue…
by Brett Craig Posted in Aura Group, Market commentary.
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What will roar when the USD eventually reverses?
Roger Montgomery
October 20, 2022
There is no question, as a consequence of the pandemic central banks employed radical unconventional monetary policy, alongside equally radical fiscal policy. In an ideal world, there would be no consequences, however every action must have a reaction. The reaction, with a substantial lag, of course, is inflation. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
