Market commentary
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Macro researchers are Bullish on equities
Roger Montgomery
June 6, 2023
Macroeconomic research house Alpine Macro has recently published an argument that should reassure bullish equity investors. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Should we be in a recession already?
Roger Montgomery
June 2, 2023
We have been optimistic about the prospects for equities this year despite fears of recession. And even though investors have listed a deeply inverted U.S. Treasury yield curve, a sharp drop in the oil price, falling consumer demand, credit tightening and declining M2 money supply as reasons to justify expectations of a recession, the outcome is not guaranteed. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Will small caps outperform again?
Roger Montgomery
May 19, 2023
The following chart pack reveals the material underperformance of U.S. and global small companies against their larger-capitalisation peers. The relative performances are displayed over the last twelve months and the 2023 calendar year to date (YTD). continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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Why the right investment framework is important
Roger Montgomery
May 16, 2023
We recently published a blog post I wrote entitled, ‘Why I think tech and small caps could rally this year’. In that post I explained the unreasonableness of the interest rate market’s expectations of more than three rate cuts by the end of January 2024. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Why I think tech and small caps could rally this year
Roger Montgomery
May 10, 2023
With inflation finally coming down, it looks like the U.S. Fed Reserve could soon stop lifting interest rates and start cutting, possibly as early as this year. That’s great news for equity markets, which tend to rally when rates are lower. And it’s particularly good news for technology stocks and small caps. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary.
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Barrenjoey issues its economic outlook – and it’s all a bit grim
Roger Montgomery
April 24, 2023
Recently, our small-cap team listened to Barrenjoey Capital’s chief economist, Jo Masters, discuss the prospects for the Australian economy. In brief, Masters forecasts the economy to slow rapidly and unemployment to rise to five per cent, with a recession the most probable outcome. She also foresees persistent inflation, which will force the RBA to hold interest rates at the current level until May 2024. If she’s right, investors are in for interesting times ahead. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.
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Takeovers take the market stage
Michael Gollagher
April 21, 2023
In my blog post last month, ‘Volatility is the window to opportunity’ I discussed how recent market volatility may represent an opportunity for investors to take advantage of investing in quality long-term assets and distressed assets at significant discounts. Interestingly, it did not take market participants too long to recognise these opportunities and to act on them. continue…
by Michael Gollagher Posted in Companies, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Takeovers.
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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand wrong foots economists…again
David Buckland
April 5, 2023
One way to reduce inflationary expectations is for the Central Bank to aggressively lift their official cash rate to a level whereby the countries’ consumers are in enormous pain, thereby crunching the economy. And with today’s 0.5 per cent tightening to 5.25 per cent, the 11th since 6 October 2021, that is exactly what the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) had in mind. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.
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Why we should all be concerned about the coming AI revolution
Roger Montgomery
March 31, 2023
Since its launch in November last year, the transformative potential of ChatGPT has stunned the world. After seeing what it can do, Bill Gates said he had just seen the most important advance in technology since the graphical user interface. The trouble is, AI like ChatGPT has the power to obliterate many industries and occupations, and cause massive social dislocation. Little wonder many technologists are warning that it’s time to hit the pause button, before it’s too late. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Why it pays to invest when Mr Market is feeling gloomy
Roger Montgomery
March 28, 2023
If you’re needing some encouragement to invest in this anxious market, take a look at historical share returns in the U.S. and Australia. Research going back almost 200 years has found that you have a 71 per cent chance of a positive return in the U.S. in any given year. And your odds are even better in Australia. What’s more, negative years, like we experienced in 2022, are usually followed by a positive one. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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