Insightful Insights
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Are China’s austerity measures starting to bite?
David Buckland
November 24, 2014
Europe and the Asia-Pacific regions account for the majority of Prada’s revenue, so it was no great surprise when Prada’s same store sales for the July 2014 half-year actually declined by 3 per cent on the previous year.
It is important to note that Chinese consumption accounts for nearly 30 per cent of global luxury goods, and around one-quarter of those purchases are made domestically and three-quarters are made when wealthy Chinese are abroad. The Chinese government’s anti-corruption and austerity measures will see pressure on the luxury goods market for the foreseeable future.
There will likely be a drag on Prada’s earnings from the planned store expansion (around 10 per cent or 60 stores) in the current financial year (to January 2015), the declining store productivity as well as the inventory build.
Another sector vulnerable to the aforementioned Chinese anti-corruption and austerity measures is gaming in Macau, and the October 2014 decline of 23 percent was the biggest year-on-year drop since the Macau government started issuing gaming revenue data in its current form in 2005.
by David Buckland Posted in Consumer discretionary, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Value.able.
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Are stocks about to crash?
Roger Montgomery
November 21, 2014
About a year ago GMO’s Jeremy Grantham was very bullish. The S&P500 was around 1,800 points and Grantham made a prediction that in the year or two the market would rally 20 per cent to 30 per cent.
With the S&P now at 2052 and up 14 per cent since his previous bullish call, we thought it would be prudent to read his letter entitled Bubble Watch Update included in the latest quarterly report to GMO investors. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Market Valuation.
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Is Europe on the brink?
Roger Montgomery
November 21, 2014
We have made much of the turnaround in markets that began with President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi’s ‘what ever it takes’ speech. Those famous words have been cited by many – including us – as marking the bottom for financial markets and the beginning of a recovery for Europe.
But former US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner made some surprising revelations about Draghi, as well as the stupidity of Europe’s elected leaders as they faced their financial crisis, in his memoirs Stress Test: Reflections on Financial Crises. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Value.able.
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What is happening in the retail sector?
Russell Muldoon
November 20, 2014
Asset prices are well-up on just a few years ago. No matter which way you cut the data, both the property and share markets have performed strongly. And so the economic theory goes: that if you feel wealthy, you’ll act wealthy and go out and spend. Exactly what a low interest rate envrionment – the one we are in now – is supposed to encourage.
But unlike past economic cycles, where the wealth effect has translated into the withdrawal of equity to be used on consumption of new furniture or a stereo for example, our listed retailers tell a different picture about the health of the Australian economy.
by Russell Muldoon Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.
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How to get value from an hour or so of your time
Roger Montgomery
November 20, 2014
Bruce Greenwald is the Robert Heilbrunn Professor of Finance and Asset Management at Columbia University, a dyed-in-the-wool Graham acolyte and the author of a multitude of books and papers on Value Investing including Value Investing From Graham to Buffett and Beyond.
At the 12th annual Post Keynesian Conference held on September 25th this year at the University of Missouri in Kansas City, Greenwald presented ‘Value Investing and the Mis-measures of Modern Portfolio Theory‘ as the plenary talk.
Instead of spending thousands of dollars learning how to become a “Property Millionaire” overnight, spend an hour or so with Bruce for free. The risk reward payoff is much more attractive.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Value.able.
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Expensive Pizza
Tim Kelley
November 19, 2014
Domino’s Pizza (ASX:DMP) has been one of the standout success stories on the ASX in recent years. The business has achieved excellent financial metrics with good earnings growth, and shareholders have enjoyed exceptional returns over many years, with a +60 per cent share price gain in the past 12 months alone.
However, while we applaud the management of the business for excellent financial performance over this period, we wonder whether the share market might have pushed Dominos beyond a sensible valuation range. continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.
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Looking at Ansell’s Long Term Incentive Plan
Ben MacNevin
November 18, 2014
Upon examining Ansell’s (ASX:ANN) Long Term Incentive Plan for management, we have noticed some interesting developments in the company’s capital position. continue…
by Ben MacNevin Posted in Consumer discretionary, Health Care, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.
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Free Trade or simply Free?
Roger Montgomery
November 17, 2014
Is the chest beating and plumage preening about and over the Free Trade Agreement a bit of a joke?
Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister, Josh Frydenberg, said the deal to be signed today with China could be worth (note the word ‘could’) up to $18 billion to the Australian economy over the next few years. I think he actually said 10 years. If that’s the case, it’s worth $1.8 billion per year.
Let’s put that into context. Our total annual iron ore exports are 600 million tonnes. At US$80/tonne, the total value is A$56 billion. The total value of the FTA could be wiped out by a US$2.79/tonne move in the iron ore price.
The full terms of the deal are expected to be signed this afternoon and the details released then also. Stay tuned.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.
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Property; be careful! Equities; get ready!
Roger Montgomery
November 17, 2014
It doesn’t seem that long ago, but the Global Financial Crisis-inspired rout in the stock market began in late 2007 and even though it bottomed in March of 2009, the symptoms that triggered the collapse, are even worse today.
But before you go jumping at shadows keep in mind that while interest rates remain low, the status quo is very likely to be maintained. Indeed low or lower rates could trigger an equity bubble before any correction is experienced. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Property, Value.able.
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Good news this week for two Montgomery holdings
Roger Montgomery
November 14, 2014
Firstly, Seek Limited (ASX:SEK) subsidiary Zhaopin Limited (NYSE:ZPIN) received a boost when it reported 3Q14 revenue growth of 32 per cent year-on-year (YOY); and EBITDA growth of 34 per cent YOY.
We will be investigating why the unaudited result was so strong given the company had been growing at around 11 per cent YOY; and Zhaopin’s key competitor, JOBS, reported 3Q14 revenue growth of just 13 per cent YOY. The result, which was reported under A-IFRS (Australian Accounting standards), will differ to the results prepared under GAAP for its US listing. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Financial Services, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Technology & Telecommunications, Value.able.
