Insightful Insights

Australia is now facing a commodity bust and the outlook is for lower growth and pressure on public finances with the budget deficit for Fiscal 2015 blowing out to $40 billion. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar has declined from US$1.05 to $0.82 in the past twenty months and a low of US$0.75 is on the cards. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights.

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Commsday ran a test of the various major mobile networks to see which performed best in various environments on their shiny new 4G services. A full copy of the report can be found here.

Telstra took first place with solid results across the board. This wasn’t unexpected result, Telstra owns the most and highest quality mobile spectrum as well as the most expansive network of wireless infrastructure in the country.

Optus was second, whilst Vodafone was third having been weighed down by poor results when the mobiles were streaming from Youtube. continue…

by Scott Shuttleworth Posted in Companies, Insightful Insights, Technology & Telecommunications.

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No doubt you’re starting to thinking about puddings for Christmas Day, last minute gift buying, present wrapping and packing for the annual holiday.  But spare a thought for the plunging price of oil. There’s a couple of things you need to know, beyond giving the petrol station attendant a smile because fuel is only costing $1.20/litre.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights.

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Like many things in financial markets, exchange rate movements are very difficult to predict. At Montgomery, we don’t claim to possess unique insight into future exchange rates, and so they typically don’t play much of a role in our investment process.

Having said that, in recent years it has seemed to us – as well as many others, including Glenn Stevens – that the $A was at levels that would be difficult to sustain long term, and in structuring our portfolios we have tended to look a little more kindly on high quality businesses that generate significant revenues offshore. continue…

by Tim Kelley Posted in Insightful Insights.

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As you know we cannot predict where share prices are going next week, next month or next quarter. Valuing a business is simply not the same as predicting its price. What we do know however, is that over the long run, the price of a company’s shares will follow the economic performance of that business. ARB fell 40 per cent or more during the GFC, but its shares have increased almost four-fold over eleven or twelve years. It’s a similar story for CBA. Its shares also slumped during the GFC, but step back and the true picture of performance appears. Our estimate of CBA’s intrinsic value and the company’s share price have tripled over a decade. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary, Insightful Insights.

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A key requirement to generating long-term returns is minimising losses, or what we like to call avoiding the landmines. As the latest results demonstrate, The Montgomery Fund has done a superb job at navigating the minefield that was 2014.

There was a clear divergence in the sectoral performances of the S&P/ASX 200 in 2014. Let’s first examine the sectors that are trading below the levels from the start of the year. continue…

by Ben MacNevin Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

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There have been volatile times recently on the ASX. With prices for oil, iron ore and coal falling sharply, the mood in the resources sector has turned decidedly sour. Further, the negative mood seems to have been adopted more broadly by the market, with a wide range of stocks showing meaningful price declines. continue…

by Tim Kelley Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market Valuation, Value.able.

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In the past few months, we have noted that retailing – among other sectors that make up the Australian economy – slowed dramatically in the June quarter of 2014. The September quarter reports from many companies over AGM season saw a continuation of that trend.

Further to our recent observations, Australia GDP just printed at 0.3 per cent for the September quarter. By contrast, 0.5 per cent for the June quarter 2014, confirms that economic growth is waning in Australia and the RBA might be forced to cut rates further. continue…

by Russell Muldoon Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

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I recently attended TPG Telecom Limited’s Annual General Meeting in Macquarie Park. Below is an ‘over-the-shoulder’ view of my notes which you may find useful. continue…

by Scott Shuttleworth Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Having recently returned from a comprehensive tour of healthcare companies with our friends at UBS, we gleaned a highly important understanding of where the bargaining power lies in the industry. From this tour, it was abundantly clear whose interests matter most.

In essence, every element of the health care sector is dependent upon the doctors – this is across hospitals, health funds, pathology, service providers and medical device distributors. continue…

by Ben MacNevin Posted in Health Care, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

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