Editor’s Pick

I joined Ausbiz to discuss how high inflation and global recession fears are impacting markets and the economy. I also share my perspective on the potential mortgage cliff for Australians and explain how aggregate numbers can sometimes conceal individual-level issues, and that marginal consumers often dictate the outlook for firms and their performance. Watch the interview: Unmasking the mortgage cliff

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, TV Appearances.

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While our predicted 2023 stock market rally appears robust at first glance, the reality reveals a different story. Initially, pessimists expected the aggressive series of interest rate hikes in 2022 to have significant consequences. Consensus the U.S. faces a recession, led many to predict a decline in stock values. However, contrary to these expectations, the U.S. economy has continued to grow, and the S&P 500 Index, which influences global investor sentiment, has risen by over 15.3 per cent this year. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary.

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Private credit used to be the domain of high net worth investors but that is all changing as nimble operators fill a gap in the market.There’s a $240 billion funding gap facing the small and medium enterprises (SMEs) that employ 70 per cent of the population. SMEs play an essential role in the economy. However, changes to regulatory requirements are making it harder for them to access funding to help them innovate and grow. continue…

by Brett Craig Posted in Aura Group, Editor's Pick, Video Insights.

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A theory doing the rounds is that we’ve entered a new epoch where central banks will have no option but to create monetary inflation to fund structural fiscal deficits. To be clear monetary inflation is not the same as consumer price inflation. Monetary inflation is brought about through central bank balance sheet expansion or quantitative easing. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.

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Private credit offers investors with an opportunity to earn steady monthly income, a simple way to diversify your portfolio – whilst providing protection against inflation and performance through the economic cycle. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Whitepapers.

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There is no shortage of negativity amongst Australians with many commentators predicting an Australian recession. First, there is the transfer from fixed rate mortgages to variable rate mortgages. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.

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We have been optimistic about the prospects for equities this year despite fears of recession. And even though investors have listed a deeply inverted U.S. Treasury yield curve, a sharp drop in the oil price, falling consumer demand, credit tightening and declining M2 money supply as reasons to justify expectations of a recession, the outcome is not guaranteed. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.

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2023 has been a challenging year for stock markets, when we commenced in January we launched with a bang, with strong market returns occurring across the globe. By the time February approached volatility had set in and we find ourselves in a situation where like tropical weather, the forecast can change at a moment’s notice. continue…

by Michael Gollagher Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Stocks We Like, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Since rates commenced rising, we have been tracking the consumer closely, waiting for the inflection point where inflation and higher mortgage commitments meet the end of government financial support and savings dry up. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary, Editor's Pick.

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I joined ABC’s The Business to discuss Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) businesses including AfterPay and Zip. We always thought these companies were mediocre – they were over-valued, with unsustainable growth and increasing competition.

Way back in 2018 I warned investors about the BNPL space and continued to do so in 2019, and 2020, questioning how long the euphoria would last. Fast forward to today, BNPL providers are facing a raft of new regulations. Is their future now even more concerning?

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, TV Appearances.

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