Economics
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Drip-fed economies die
Roger Montgomery
May 28, 2015
There’s a tendency in the media and amongst Australians to get bored with a story. The world works in mysterious ways and governments respond when the media stirs up popular support for a cause. It’s our duty then to ensure the important stories remain front of mind. This story was first published in November however it is just as relevant now… C’mon Joe Australia needs you!
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights.
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What’s the forecast?
Tim Kelley
May 27, 2015
When asked for an opinion about where equity markets might be headed, it is common practice for expert commentators to start with some insightful comments on the economy. This is a natural place to start, as the economy is big and important, and some insightful comments can quickly establish that the commentator is as similarly big and important. continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights.
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The times, they are a changin’…
Roger Montgomery
May 6, 2015
If a picture tells a thousand words then the picture being painted by these graphs is a gloomy one for those fully invested or those levered into recent asset purchases. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights.
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Watch out for rising bond yields
David Buckland
May 6, 2015
In the Video Insight on January 12 2015 I mentioned poor consumer confidence and low wages growth domestically, in addition to very low growth in China and deflation in Europe that would see monetary policy “stay easier for longer”. I forecast the Reserve Bank of Australia would cut the cash rate “two more times in the first six months of 2015 and this would likely put a floor under the Aussie market.” continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights.
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Where’s the debt?
Tim Kelley
April 30, 2015
The New York Stock Exchange has recently released data on margin lending through to March 2015. What it shows is margin lending at a new all-time high – above the levels seen at the height of the tech boom and prior to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). As you might expect, the data shows that margin lending tends to be popular when markets are hot. The build up of debt when equities are expensive no doubt exacerbates the pain of a subsequent market downturn. continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights.
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Should interest rates be lower?
Tim Kelley
April 9, 2015
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised the market this week by not lowering official interest rates. While the RBA statement did note that the Board would have a think about lowering rates in the period ahead, the market was pretty sure a cut was in the bag. As a result, a Tuesday morning rally in the equity market made a sudden about face when the news was released. continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Property.
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WHITEPAPERS
Will the market boom or bust in 2015?
Roger Montgomery
March 6, 2015
The answer to that question will be known in a few short months. We already have some pretty good indications that validate our optimism. But some equally solid arguments can be mounted that validate our caution.
Roger Montgomery is the founder and Chief Investment Officer of Montgomery Investment Management. To invest with Montgomery, find out more.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market Valuation, Whitepapers.
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Will 2015 be the year Australia enters a recession?
Roger Montgomery
February 20, 2015
This week the question, whether 2015 will be the year Australian enters a recession, was asked by one of our subscribers, here is what I had to say in response: continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Foreign Currency, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.
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Will the Greeks wreck your retirement?
Roger Montgomery
February 17, 2015
On Monday night, the US markets were closed for the Presidents’ Day holiday but Greece was not sleeping comfortably.
To understand whether there are risks to your wealth from Greece’s posturing (and remember the US markets return to work tonight) it pays to understand where we are currently and how we arrived at this juncture. If you would like to know more read on. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Financial Services, Foreign Currency, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.
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It’s Coco-nuts!
Roger Montgomery
February 16, 2015
Chasing yield, wherever it can be found, is a pastime for many baby boomers whose income returns from traditional securities and bank deposits are being decimated. The fad global and Basel III banking capital requirements are potentially legitimising some securities, that under normal interest rate settings, might not have seen the light of day. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Financial Services, Foreign Currency, Insightful Insights.