Economics

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by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Global markets, Video Insights.

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Central banks across the Western world have been busy recalibrating policy settings, with interest rate cuts a common theme over the past 12-15 months. But the reasons for these moves, and the consequences, vary widely between economies. In the following analysis, I examine the recent cash rate changes across Australia, the U.S., the UK, Europe, Canada, and New Zealand, and place them in the context of each nation’s inflation and unemployment trends. Together, these snapshots highlight the mixed progress in taming inflation, the trade-offs being made, and the signals for both savers and borrowers in the year ahead.

I have tabled the cash rate movements from the Central Banks of these six Western World economies, accompanied by some brief economic observations. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Global markets.

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If you’re tracking equities, it’s vital to keep an eye on the bond markets, as they’re signalling genuine unease. That nervousness is now rippling through global economies. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary.

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In April this year, as U.S. equity markets fell – dragged down by Trump tariff headlines and inflation fears – long bond yields, arguably, should have declined as investors fled to safety. At first, the 10‑year Treasury yield dipped to 3.86 per cent on April 4, but by April 9, rather than continuing to fall, yields surged, with the 10‑year up to around 4.50 per cent and the 30‑year jumping 54 basis points – breaking the usual inverse correlation between stocks and bonds. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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The Magnificent Seven; Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Meta (NASDAQ:META), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), which rose by an average 111 per cent over calendar 2023, continued its strong upward trajectory, increasing a further 63 per cent, on average, over calendar year 2024. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Foreign Currency, Market commentary.

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The global economy faces a complex landscape as trade tensions between the United States and China persist, threatening economic stability. This week, Ric Deverell, the highly regarded Chief Economist at Macquarie, shared insights on the potential for a U.S. recession, the resilience of China’s economy, and the ripple effects on global markets, including Australia and Europe. Our interpretation of his comments follows, and where data is independently available, we have provided that data along with sources. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Foreign Currency, Global markets, Market commentary.

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Labor’s resounding victory at the weekend’s Federal Election, securing a second term with a strengthened parliamentary majority, defied predictions of a close contest, possibly reflects the idealism of a new generation of voters, and grants Labor a mandate to advance a socialist policy agenda.

Victoria’s fiscal challenges however are the result of a long-term Labor government running a socialist agenda that has now run out of other people’s money. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Economics, Market commentary.

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The U.S. is a flawed country, but many believe, as the New York Times’s David Brooks noted, is fundamentally a force for good. Citing the Marshall Plan, the defeat of fascism, and the defeat of the Soviet Union, as examples, and acknowledging Iraq and Vietnam, as mistakes of stupidity, naïveté and arrogance, Brooks believes the U.S. has always been well-intentioned. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics.

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In this week’s video insight, I delve into the recent interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and what it means for self-funded retirees relying on cash and term deposits. With lower rates affecting returns, I explore the broader implications for retirement income and discuss private credit as one potential alternative to help navigate this changing landscape.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Economics, Video Insights.

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This week, I joined David Taylor on ABC PM to discuss the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest rate cut and why bank customers should take action. Many of us are effectively lending money to banks for free, and inertia prevents us from seeking better returns. With no guarantee of further cuts, now is the time to shop around and make our cash work harder. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Radio.

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