Economics

It may initially seem a stretch to claim the financial quality of your retirement beyond 2026 might depend on the outcome of some heroic assumptions about Hyperscaler artificial intelligence (AI) cash flows.

But is it?

Equity markets, and especially investors in U.S. stocks – of which there is a record number investing a record amount – are ignoring a litany of concerns. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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When the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields pierced five per cent on September 14, they reached their highest level since October 2023, and signalled a potential conflict between sovereign debt realities and a relentlessly optimistic equity market. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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In financial markets, it’s said history doesn’t repeat, but it frequently rhymes. The recent bond market moves seem to reflect a market rhyming with the 2023 bond tantrum, threatening to disrupt everything from home mortgages and corporate credit to government financing and equity valuations.

U.S. Treasury yields have broken out of what has widely been described as a multi-year range, pushing the benchmark U.S.10-year yield toward 5.00 per cent. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss rising U.S. interest rates and bond yields, what is driving them, and the potential flow-on effects for Australia. We also explored government debt, artificial intelligence (AI) investment, equity markets and what higher borrowing costs could mean for investors.

Listen from 1:43:51 here: ABC Statewide Drive 

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary, Radio.

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I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss rising U.S. bond yields and what higher interest rates could mean for markets. We also explored growing U.S. government debt, competition for capital from the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure boom, and the warning signs to watch across mortgages, highly leveraged companies and credit markets.

Watch here: The $40 trillion debt problem facing U.S. markets 

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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In recent months, the chart shown in Figure 1., has been doing the rounds, inspiring fear among some observers that a stock market crash is imminent. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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In this video, I discuss why we see the build-out of AI in Australia as an investable opportunity, from the infrastructure supporting it to the businesses positioned to benefit. I also explain our approach to investing early, starting with smaller positions and increasing exposure as potential winners emerge.

by Gary Rollo Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Popular, Small Caps, Video Insights.

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In my recent article for The Australian, I explore the growing competition for capital between the U.S. government and the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. As government borrowing and AI infrastructure spending accelerate, the resulting pressure on bond yields could reshape the investment environment, with important implications for equity valuations and long-duration growth stocks.

Download the article here: A new battle for cash has begun – and it could sink stocks

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Popular, Technology & Telecommunications.

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In my latest article for The Australian, I look at the growing pressure facing Australian homeowners as rising living costs, higher interest rates and mortgage repayments stretch household budgets. With mortgage stress at its highest level in 18 years, I explore the economic pressures behind the figures and what they could mean for households if conditions remain challenging.

Download the article here: Homeowners pay the high price of Labor’s fiscal mismanagement continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, In the Press, Market commentary, Property.

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For investors who still think of NRW Holdings (ASX:NWH) as simply a mining contractor, the Financial Year 2026 (FY26) result provides a useful reason to update that view. NRW has developed into a much broader Australian industrial contracting business, providing contract mining, drill-and-blast, engineering, and civil construction services to resources and infrastructure customers. Its activities span Civil, Mining, Minerals, Energy & Technologies and, following the acquisition of Fredon, a growing range of infrastructure-related work. Its exposure now stretches across mining, public infrastructure, data centres, defence, health and renewables. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Economics, Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, Small Caps, Stocks We Like.

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