Economics

“Buffett screams sell!” “Buffett sounds alarm!” They were the headlines that greeted me recently, about Oracle of Omaha, when I opened my news app to read up on what others thought about the rally in markets since 2022 – a rally that anyone following would know we frequently and repeatedly explained would transpire, and a rally that has accelerated following the election of Donald Trump as the next U.S. President. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Economics.

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Every day, I am met with articles quoting commentators telling me that the market is high and, therefore, on the precipice of a correction. Let’s get one thing straight – markets don’t fall just because they are high. They can stay high and continue upwards for a long time. It is also a mistake to believe that a catalyst is required to cause the market to crash. Investors, to this day, debate the trigger for the 1987 crash. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics.

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Following the election of Donald Trump as the next U.S. president, a number of market analysts are crunching the numbers on what, if anything, it means for markets. Given there is an election every four years and most investors are investing over a longer time frame than that, who is in charge should matter relatively little. We will examine what might matter more, later in this post. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics.

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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is fighting the government sctor where aggregate expenditure has jumped from a long-term average of 22.5 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) for the five decades from 1970 to a forecast 28 per cent of GDP. “Underlying inflation” is running at 3.5 per cent, and the strength of public spending has been underappreciated, assisting aggregate demand and keeping unemployment low.    

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by David Buckland Posted in Economics.

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One of the most frequently asked questions by investors following Trump’s election victory is: what sectors will do well? While much remains unknowable about Trump’s second term, his “promises made, promises kept” statement during his victory speech suggests not all is a mystery.  continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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That race toward artificial intelligence (AI) dominance we’ve all been hearing about has prompted some of the world’s largest technology companies – Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Meta (NASDAQ:META) platforms included – to ramp up capital expenditures (CapEx) to unprecedented levels. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Economics.

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Famed 20^th-century British author Gilbert Chesterton (1874-1936) once observed, “The poor have sometimes objected to being governed badly. The rich have always objected to being governed at all.” continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick.

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My friend Mick Mulvaney was in town recently. Mick was a former Republican Congressman for South Carolina from 2011 to 2017 and served as director of the U.S. Office of Management and Budget, acting director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and White House Chief of Staff from January 2019 to March 2020, under President Donald Trump. A big achievement for someone who had publicly called Trump “a terrible human being”. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics.

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Take a journey with me for a moment back to mid-2020, right after the World Health Organisation (WHO) finally conceded the world was in a crippling pandemic. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics.

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Today’s investors are focused on interest rates, inflation and earnings. A small group are thinking about the issues that could surface in two or three years, such as China annexing Taiwan and the consequences of artificial intelligence’s (AI) birth. An even smaller group are thinking about what lies beyond that. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Property.

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