Economics

On December 18, in a blog entitled Time Magazine Cover Curse, I wrote, “…Gracing the cover of the [TIME] mag isn’t a coronation but a harbinger of doom, because the moment a public figure has permeated the public discourse sufficiently to land the cover, the trajectory inevitably reverses.”

Politicians have suffered landslide defeats after being featured on the cover, as have business tycoons whose stocks plummet, and celebrities whose reputations are assassinated under sudden, intense scrutiny. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Economics, Investing Education, Market Valuation.

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On statewide drive with Jess Maguire, I explained that recent market volatility reflects investors reassessing some big assumptions, particularly after Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next U.S. Federal Reserve chair.

Many investors had been expecting lower U.S. interest rates, so the nomination caught markets off guard and forced a reversal of those bets. That led to sharp falls in gold and silver, higher bond yields, and weaker share prices. While precious metals may recover over time, I see the bigger influence on sharemarkets as the gradual unwinding of the artificial intelligence (AI) trade. For Australia, stronger U.S. growth can support some companies, but persistent inflation risks and policy uncertainty mean investors are becoming more cautious and re-evaluating risk.

Listen from 1:44:55 here: ABC Statewide Drive. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary, Radio.

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Yet, the stock market’s buoyancy belies the head-spinning conga line of events over the first month of 2026 that would, at any other time in history, have caused the market to plunge or coincided with it.

Take gold’s 17 per cent ascent so far this month, which follows a 66 per cent rise in 2025. Such moves are unusual. Since gold began trading freely in the 1970s, the average annual return for gold has been roughly 6-8 per cent. January’s return doubles that annual number.

This article was first published in The Australian on 04 December 2025. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Economics, Global markets, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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I joined Sean Aylmer on Fear and Greed to look back at some of the key themes that shaped markets in 2025, including the hype surrounding in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks and the growing case for small caps. We also talked about the rise in gold and silver as the U.S. dollar weakened, and what those moves could signal for investors.

We then looked ahead to 2026, discussing why markets may become more volatile and how diversification into assets uncorrelated to traditional markets could help support portfolios. We covered Digital Asset Funds Management’s Digital Income Fund and how its digital arbitrage strategy aims to benefit from market volatility, and explored how Aura’s Private Credit Income Fund can provide income and returns with no correlation to sharemarkets.

You can listen to the episode on Fear and Greed here: The bull and bear cases for equities in 2026.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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Interest rates act like gravity on the value of all assets. The lower the rate, the weaker the gravitational force, allowing asset prices to float higher. The Federal Reserve (the Fed) has cut 175 basis points since the current rate-cutting cycle began on September 18, 2024. Since that time, the U.S. stock market, as measured by the S&P500, has risen 22.4 per cent.

As important as interest rates are for asset values, they are perhaps even more important to sentiment, when investors believe they are set based on economic data rather than the whims of politicians – whose own agendas may seek to destroy the benefits of monetary policy when driven by an independent central bank. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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I joined Paul Turton on ABC Newcastle Mornings to talk about why markets are holding near all-time highs despite rising geopolitical tensions, soaring gold and silver prices, and growing uncertainty around inflation and interest rates.

We discussed how mining companies are benefiting from strong commodity prices, why consumer spending remains under pressure from rising living costs, and how banks and other key sectors may respond in a more volatile environment. While no one can predict where markets will head next, 2026 is shaping up to be a bumpier year, with investors rotating away from artificial intelligence (AI) stocks and preparing for greater swings as economic and political risks build.

Tune in from 32:41 to hear the full segment: ABC Newcastle Mornings.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Market commentary, Radio.

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2025 was a strong year for small companies and for the Montgomery Small Companies Fund. In this detailed video, I’m joined by Gary Rollo, Co-Portfolio Manager of the Montgomery Small Companies Fund to review the Fund’s performance, key market drivers, and the outlook for small caps and growth companies heading into 2026. continue…

by Scott Phillips Posted in Companies, Economics, Global markets, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Small Caps, Stocks We Like.

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In my latest article for Firstlinks, I reflect on why 2025 delivered another strong year for equities, supported by the continued combination of disinflation and positive economic growth – with much of the strength driven by enthusiasm around artificial intelligence (AI).

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Economics, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, On the Internet.

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Goldman Sachs Research represents one of the largest stockbroking firms in the world.  So, it should come as no surprise that the investment bank has recently published its stock market outlook for the next decade, predicting an average annual return of almost eight per cent.

But if you’ve grown accustomed to smooth and steady gains, you may need to recalibrate your expectations, despite Goldman Sachs’ reassurances. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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2025 has been an eventful year, with some strong returns – but what comes next? I joined Sean Aylmer from Fear and Greed for their Summer Series to break down the forces that shaped markets this year. Looking ahead to 2026, I explain why investors should expect higher volatility, limited future gains given today’s stretched valuations, and why rebalancing portfolios into alternative offerings that are uncorrelated to markets should be considered. 

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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