Roger Montgomery is the Founder and Chairman of Montgomery Investment Management. Roger has over three decades of experience in funds management and related activities, including equities analysis, equity and derivatives strategy, trading and stockbroking. Prior to establishing Montgomery, Roger held positions at Ord Minnett Jardine Fleming, BT (Australia) Limited and Merrill Lynch.
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Does Asciano’s sharp price drop and bright outlook make it good value? Well no, if you consider the headwinds the company faces. Read online.
Half of all shareholders in Australia own at least one major bank in their share portfolios. Are you one of those investors? Read article.
Since early December Paul, Squigly, Steven and Darren have requested I value Westfield. WDC is also a popular stock with viewers of Nina May’s Your Money Your Call on the Sky Business Channel (you can watch highlights at my YouTube channel, just type ‘Westfield’ into the search feature), and rightly so. It’s a company run by three of the most capable men in the world and one whose shares I have owned in the past.
Today its price, according to a number of analysts and strategists, does not appear to have responded to expectations for an improvement in economic conditions in the US. The biggest gap between inventories and orders since the mid 70’s, the decline in housing inventory, the strong turnaround in cyclical indicators and the steep yield curve all suggest an acceleration in US economic growth – by the way if this doesn’t sound like me, you are right. I am just repeating what I have been reading.
I don’t subscribe to the view that it’s the job of the investor to allow macro economic forecasts to influence micro-based investment decisions.
If however the economists are right, and the US economic recovery does gain traction, then all that remains is a recovery in consumer confidence to see Westfield benefit. Of course if the US economic strength is sustained, then one suspects the US dollar will also recover, making Westfield’s profits more valuable in Australian dollar terms.
Those things aside, lets have a quick look at the valuation and take a dispassionate view about the price irrespective of whether others believe the price has or hasn’t responded to US growth expectations. Continue…
David Koch presents the ABC of a corporate collapse for CPA Australia. This series of videos will take you step-by-step through the actions and inactions of ABC Learning that lead to its spectacular collapse. Watch the trailer.
Whilst most investors make their buy and sell decision based on macro views, Roger looks at the characteristics of individual businesses ROE, debt level, competitive advantage. Based on his analysis, Roger tells viewers of Oriel Morrison’s Trading Matters program the outlook for JB Hi-Fi, CSL and Woolworths. He also discusses the riskier proposition of MMS, warning investors to be very cautious of the company’s unknown future based on the Henry Tax Review. Watch the interview.
Once you have identified and valued a great business, it’s time to wait for an opportunity to present. It inevitably will. Read online.
Roger Montgomery, independent strategist, favors Australian electronics and home entertainment retailer, J.B. Hi-Fi. He tells CNBC’s Oriel Morrison why. Montgomery also reveals his other top picks in the Aussie market. Watch the interview.
Building a portfolio of great businesses means ignoring the hype and the hubris … and the duds. Read online.
Successful investing means identifying sound businesses and buying them for the right price. It’s a world (and just three steps) away from speculating. Read online.
