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In my recent conversation with James Findlay on Statewide Drive, I discussed several key trends in the current economic landscape. Since June, major lenders and banks have only reported a modest increase in mortgage defaults and house repossessions, while vehicle defaults remain under 1 per cent. However, ASIC data shows that Australia is on track to record the highest number of business collapses in a decade, particularly in the building and food service industries, reflecting a pullback in discretionary spending.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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In my recent interview with Ausbiz, I discussed the complex landscape for Australian consumers and the retail sector. While higher income earners are driving spending, lower income groups are tightening their belts, focusing on essentials like utilities and mortgages. Data from UBS and Finder reveals consumer trends remain resilient despite economic uncertainty. Retailers like JB Hi-Fi (ASX:JBH) and Nick Scali (ASX:NCK) have shown strong performance by gaining market share, particularly through overseas expansion, whereas others, like Harvey Norman (ASX:HVN), have lagged. Looking ahead to Christmas and Black Friday sales, I expect steady spending from wealthier consumers, but a drop among lower-income households, highlighting the challenges ahead for the retail sector.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary, TV Appearances.

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Back in June 24, the picture for Australian consumers was ominously darkening.  While Australia’s major lenders had reported only modest increases in mortgage defaults and house repossessions, data from the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) revealed Australia was on track to record the highest number of collapsed businesses in ten years, with businesses in the building game and in food services bearing the brunt of the impact from consumers ‘zipping up their wallets’. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary.

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Despite cost-of-living pressures and a continual stream of consumer data reflecting a zipping up of wallets around the country amid a cost-of-living crisis, JB Hi-Fi’s (ASX:JBH) total revenue for the year to 30 June fell just 0.4 per cent to $9.6 billion. This was the result of a much stronger than expected result for the Australian business. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.

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In this morning’s interview on Ausbiz, I discussed key market trends in anticipation of the upcoming U.S. and Australian reporting seasons. I highlighted the importance of the impending reporting season to support the current market momentum, emphasising the need to closely observe outlook statements and key sectors, such as consumer discretionary companies like JB Hi-Fi (ASX: JBH) and Premier Investments (ASX: PMV). I also addressed the pressures on Australian banks, including Commonwealth Bank (ASX:CBA), noting their significant contributions to market performance but also their current high valuations and need for earnings growth. Lastly, I touched on the resource sector, particularly lithium stocks, and the importance of upcoming production reports in shaping future market directions. Continue…

by Sean Sequeira Posted in Editor's Pick, TV Appearances.

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I have previously written here that one of the most repeatable ways to make money on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) is to buy into a retail store rollout story early. Catching the steepest part of the ‘S’ curve when revenue and profit growth are accelerating while head office becomes simultaneously more efficient usually produces good results thanks to the accompanying rise in the share price.  Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick.

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In my recent interview with Ausbiz, I discussed the current economic market, highlighting the change in investor perception regarding interest rates and its significant influence on market performance. I assessed the Macquarie conference, noting the impact of JB Hi-Fi (ASX:JBH) and Super Cheap Auto (ASX:SUL) on retailer expectations, and analysed the challenges banks face in improving their net interest margin amid rising competition and costs.  Continue…

by Sean Sequeira Posted in Companies, TV Appearances.

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Retail stocks were on the nose for some time amid fears of recession, the impact of rising interest rates, the cost-of-living crisis and inflation’s impact on the cost of doing business. 

The recent HY24 reporting season, however, revealed much of the fear was misplaced. Aggregate revenue growth tended to beat estimates despite moderating slightly. Meanwhile, even though earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) margins compressed as the cost of doing business grew, this was somewhat offset by gross profit growth. Companies were able to pass on higher prices and more, and in the face of those price increases, consumers were surprisingly resilient.  Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Economics.

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In this week’s video insight, I delve into the highlights of the February reporting season and its unexpected outcomes, a key period for those of us monitoring the Australian equity market. Despite a challenging economic backdrop, a noteworthy number of companies have outperformed expectations, bolstering my optimistic view on the potential of quality, innovative companies. As the season concludes, I offer my insights on the unexpected turns and the bright prospects for equity investors, reaffirming my bullish stance for the future.  Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Video Insights.

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In this week’s ABC Nightlife interview, I joined Phillip Clark to kick off the year and make some forecasts for 2024. We also discussed the latest news from this reporting season. You can listen to the full interview here: ABC Nightlife – Forecasts for 2024 and reporting season updates

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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In this week’s video insight, I explore the recent performance of the retail sector. Companies like Cettire, Temple & Webster, Nick Scali, and JBHi-Fi have surprised analysts with their robust performance, leading to a reassessment of sales projections. I discuss the unexpected resilience of retailers in the face of January’s challenges and discuss the implications of these developments for the future. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Stocks We Like, Video Insights.

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Temple & Webster (ASX:TPW) have already added to the positive retail momentum by Nick Scali (ASX:NCK), JB Hi-Fi (ASX:JBH), and Cettire (ASX:CTT).

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.

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It’s annual general meeting (AGM) season and our teams are furiously note-taking at dozens of company briefings where the opportunity to provide analysts with an update on trading conditions over the months of September and October is taken seriously. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Stocks We Like.

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In this week’s video insight, Roger Montgomery delves into the recently concluded 2023 financial year reporting season which presented a mixed picture. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Video Insights.

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Australian-based electronics and home appliance retailer, and consumer litmus test (not forget one of the highest quality retailers in the country), JB Hi-Fi (ASX:JBH), has unveiled its FY23 results, and it’s a mix of estimate-beating gains with some slowing trends, especially in The Good Guys division. Here’s a quick dive into the numbers and what they mean for the retailer, and possibly, its shares. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick.

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Australian consumer-facing companies have faced unprecedented challenges and undergone significant transformation since the bushfires of 2019. From the profound impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic to violent mix-shifts from goods to services, and digital advancements, the sector has navigated a complex landscape. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary.

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Consumer electronics and home appliances retailer, JB Hi-Fi (ASX:JBH), has just released its first-half results for FY23. For the six months to December 2022, there was a lot to like. But sales figures for January paint a picture of a more cash-strapped consumer and, by extension, a slowing economy. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary.

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In this week’s video insight Roger suggests a repeatable way to invest, in a sector of the Australian stock market, that appears to have provided excellent returns to those who have applied it in the past. That sector is retailers, and there are three companies that should be on your watch-list. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Video Insights.

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Most companies are finding it nearly impossible to accurately assess the long-term impact of the COVID-19 crisis on their business. Consequently, market analysts are having an equally tough time, and their opinions can be alarmingly divergent. Recent analyst commentary on consumer goods retailer, JB Hi-Fi, is a case in point. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.

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After a few tough months, Australia is starting to come out of hibernation, and investors are looking ahead – as reflected in our rebounding sharemarket. But they’ll need to be selective in their stock selections, because some businesses will do far better than others in our post-lockdown world. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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