Last night, on ABC’s 7.30 news report with Michael Rowland, I discussed whether surging investment in artificial intelligence (AI) is pushing large technology companies to unsustainable valuations. I noted that investors often become highly enthusiastic when new technologies emerge that are believed to reshape the world, but history shows this can inflate expectations. In the case of AI, the scale of spending by tech hyperscalers is immense, and to justify it they would need extraordinary levels of revenue.

Watch the full segment here: ABC News – Are AI investors causing tech companies to be overvalued?

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Market commentary, On the Internet, Technology & Telecommunications, TV Appearances.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to reflect on how strong global markets have been over the past three years (particularly in the U.S.) while noting that future returns are likely to be more volatile. I explained that the powerful mix of falling inflation, solid growth, abundant liquidity and enthusiasm around artificial intelligence (AI) that drove markets since late 2022 is now changing, with inflation proving stickier, the jobs market losing momentum and liquidity conditions shifting as we head into 2026. 

Tune in from 1:46:40 here: ABC Statewide Drive Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary, Radio.

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Back in October, I examined the emerging trend of interest rate cuts across the Western world, looking at why they were occurring and how different economies were responding. Since then, rate cuts have continued in several countries. In this update, I return to the same six economies (Australia, the U.S., the UK, Europe, Canada, and New Zealand), incorporating more recent inflation expectations and labour-market data to assess what these developments may signal for 2026.
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by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary.

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Today on Ausbiz with Juliette Saly, I explained that while low valuations in 2022 set the stage for strong returns, we’re now at the opposite end of the spectrum, with very high price-to-earning ratios (P/Es), elevated enthusiasm (especially around artificial intelligence) – and growing economic and geopolitical uncertainty, all of which point to lower returns and greater volatility in 2026. We’re also seeing signs of speculative excess in the AI thematic, from soaring private valuations to rising constraints around energy and water that are likely to create speed bumps for the sector.  Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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On this episode of Over the Money Fence, I joined Nicola and Di to reflect on what really shaped markets in 2025, cutting through the noise around artificial intelligence (AI), technology stocks, gold, Bitcoin, inflation and interest rates. I shared my outlook for 2026, including the risks of an AI-led bubble, the growing role of alternative strategies like private credit, and why diversification and quality investing remain essential. We also tackled the most common listener questions and discussed simple, practical steps to help people head into the new year feeling clear, calm and confident. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Investing Education, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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With that caveat out of the way, I am reasonably confident we should expect greater volatility and lower returns in 2026. Let me explain why I think that’s a reasonable assessment.

Since 2022, I have suggested that investors maintain a bullish disposition.

This article was first published in The Australian on 04 December 2025. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press.

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I joined Paul Turton on ABC Newcastle Mornings today to discuss the broader economic backdrop, including why interest rates are likely to remain steady for now, how household spending and cost pressures are shaping the outlook, and why global sharemarkets are being driven less by local conditions and more by international themes such as investment in artificial intelligence (AI), with long-term returns ultimately depending on earnings and business fundamentals.

Tune in from 37:54 to hear the full segment: ABC Newcastle Mornings. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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Would you ask a barber whether you need a haircut?

Amid the negative sensationalist media headlines – what Macquarie Chief Economist, Ric Deverell, dubs “click bait”– it’s crucial for investors to filter out the noise and focus on underlying economic and business fundamentals. Speaking on December 4, 2025, at an investor briefing for Macquarie clients, Deverell offered a clear, cautiously optimistic view for 2026, suggesting global growth might very well surprise to the upside, driving a positive outlook for risk assets. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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