Michael Burry, the Wall Street legend made famous for shorting the 2008 U.S. housing bubble in Michael Lewis’s book The Big Short, is ramping up his short thesis again, while taking direct aim at the “idiots” (his term) in what he calls “Trump’s market”. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Australia’s FY26 reporting season looked reasonably strong on the surface, with aggregate profits rising by around 11.6 per cent. But underneath the headline numbers, the recovery was much narrower – and investors were often more interested in what companies said about FY27 than the profits they had just reported.

I speak with Michael Thompson from Fear + Greed, about my 10 lessons from reporting season. We discuss why consumers are still spending but demanding value, expensive bank valuations, the limits of cost-cutting, opportunities in healthcare and why stock selection is becoming increasingly important. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Podcast Channel, Popular.

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The popular Australian economic narrative includes the argument the consumer is weak, and we are heading towards a recession.

But Australia’s latest retail earnings results are painting a more nuanced picture. In other words, the household sector is under pressure, but the pressure is not falling evenly.

Spending on essentials remains resilient, value-conscious consumers are still buying when the offer is compelling, and well-run retailers are protecting profit through better gross margins, lower costs and tighter capital discipline.

At the same time, however, the more discretionary categories continue to show weak traffic and softer like-for-like sales. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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ARB Corporation (ASX: ARB) is Australia’s leading designer, manufacturer, and distributor of premium 4×4 vehicle accessories. Known worldwide for its flagship bull bars, suspension systems, roof racks, and camping gear, the company operates an extensive retail, wholesale, and export network serving off-road enthusiasts, commercial fleets, and Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs). Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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I discuss our positioning in the big four banks and why we maintain a significant underweight. After a period of strong bank performance, we believe the outlook is shifting as credit growth moderates and economic conditions evolve, supporting our current positioning. Continue…

by Sean Sequeira Posted in Economics, Financial Services, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Video Insights.

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If you follow financial news, like I do, you might have recently heard market commentator Trevor Hall summarise Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s latest move in a single eye-opener:

“He’s buying back bonds with 1 per cent interest rates at 50 cents on the dollar and replacing them with short-term debt that currently yields 3 and ¾ per cent.”

It sounds like a paradox. Why would the U.S. government buy back debt that costs them almost nothing (1 per cent interest rates) and swap it for debt that costs almost four times as much (3.75 per cent)? Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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This week, the market’s most irrepressible bull, Ed Yardeni published another blog promoting his bullish thesis entitled, Peak Fear? Peak Yields? Peak Earnings? Peak AI?, alongside co-author Elias Griepentrog.

The headline gives away the framework because Yardeni and Griepentrog immediately answer the four questions in order:

Peak Fear? Yes.
Peak Yields? Maybe.
Peak Earnings? No.
Peak AI? No.

Let’s look at each argument in turn. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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FDC Consolidated Holdings Limited (ASX: FDC), a major Australian construction, fit-out, and building services company, has had an auspicious beginning as a public company after listing for $3.00 per share on the ASX on 13 July 2026. FDC reported a 13 per cent increase in revenue for the year to June 2026 to $1.69 billion, whilst underlying Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) (excluding listing costs) rose 18 per cent to $96.5 million. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Small Caps, Stocks We Like.

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