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All parties must end

latest feature

All parties must end

Roger Montgomery
October 9, 2025

Markets sit at elevated levels, fuelled by optimism around artificial intelligence and the promise of lasting productivity gains. Yet beneath the excitement lies a complex mix of valuations, momentum, and risk – raising important questions about how investors can stay positioned if sentiment shifts.

Markets are expensive – observations and implications

There is a conga line of analysts, fund managers and commentators pointing out the extremes many traditional or conventional measures of value have now reached.  From price-to-earnings, price-to-book, and market-cap-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to earnings and dividend yields, the U.S. S&P 500 is in rarified air when it comes to the price investors are willing to pay for exposure to future growth. continue…

Markets sit at elevated levels, fuelled by optimism around artificial intelligence and the promise of lasting productivity gains. Yet beneath continue...

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
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Rates reset across the west – six economies, six stories
October 6, 2025

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Rebalancing your portfolio – keeping control when markets run hot
October 13, 2025
by Roger Montgomery
Historic highs, hard truths – protecting your wealth in 2025
October 2, 2025
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Bulls vs. bears – bubble brewing or rally building?
August 28, 2025
by Roger Montgomery
Small reactors, big impact – a breakthrough in green technology
August 14, 2025
by Roger Montgomery
  • Polen Capital – large company growth process

    Polen Capital
    October 14, 2025

    Hear from the team at Polen Capital as they outline their disciplined investment process that allows them to filter thousands of companies down to a focused group. By concentrating on businesses with durable advantages and essential products, they aim to build portfolios aligned with their long-standing philosophy of quality and conviction. Continue…

    by Polen Capital Posted in Polen Capital.
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    • POSTED IN Polen Capital.
  • Rebalancing your portfolio – keeping control when markets run hot

    Roger Montgomery
    October 13, 2025

    In this week’s video insight, I tackle the question I’m most often asked  – is the market going to crash? The truth is, no one knows. While valuations across measures like price-to-earnings and market-cap-to-GVA suggest markets are expensive, they can stay that way for a long time. Rather than selling out, investors should consider rebalancing – trimming profits from equities that have grown beyond their target allocation and reallocating to alternatives such as private credit or arbitrage strategies. This approach helps manage risk and reduce anxiety without trying to time the market’s next move.

    For more information, give David Buckland or Rhodri Taylor a call on (02) 8046 5000. Continue…

    by Roger Montgomery Posted in Video Insights.
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    • POSTED IN Video Insights.
  • Canary in the coal mine? New Zealand joins rate cut trend

    David Buckland
    October 10, 2025

    In the past 14 months, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has cut its cash rate on seven separate occasions by an aggregate 3.0 per cent from 5.5 per cent to 2.5 per cent, as seen in Table 1.

    Table 1. Reserve bank of New Zealand rate cuts Continue…

    by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Property.
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    • POSTED IN Global markets, Market commentary, Property.
  • Is artificial intelligence stealing jobs?

    Roger Montgomery
    October 8, 2025

    On November 30, 2022, the world marvelled at the release and conversational prowess of OpenAI’s ChatGPT. What the world might have missed, however, was the subtle shift that began rippling through the U.S. economy.

    What started as a viral tech demo – capable of drafting emails, coding snippets, and even poetry – escalated into a full-blown revolution in large language models (LLMs) and artificial intelligence, now described as the fourth industrial revolution. Continue…

    by Roger Montgomery Posted in Technology & Telecommunications.
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    • POSTED IN Technology & Telecommunications.
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    ABC Statewide Drive – artificial intelligence euphoria

    Roger Montgomery
    October 3, 2025

    Yesterday I joined Jess McGuire on ABC’s Statewide Drive to talk about the artificial intelligence (AI) boom and what it means for investors. While AI may well transform industries and benefit consumers, I cautioned that the rush into AI stocks has pushed valuations to bubble-like levels, where prices assume every company will succeed – something history tells us is impossible. High valuations typically mean lower future returns, and right now U.S. stocks are at record high prices. For investors, particularly those nearing retirement, my advice was simple: regularly rebalance portfolios by trimming back exposure to overheated assets and reallocating to alternatives such as private credit, small company funds, or cash — rather than panic selling — to stay defensive while still positioned for long-term growth. Continue…

    by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.
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    • POSTED IN Market commentary, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.
  • MEDIA

    Ausbiz – the everything boom

    Roger Montgomery
    October 3, 2025

    Yesterday on Ausbiz with Juliette Saly, I discussed why record-high markets may carry more risks than opportunities. While the artificial intelligence (AI) boom has powered enthusiasm, I cautioned that valuations across the broader market are now at unprecedented levels, with all companies effectively being priced as winners – something history shows is unsustainable. Continue…

    by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.
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    • POSTED IN Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.
  • The hidden perils of plugging in

    Roger Montgomery
    October 3, 2025

    In the sun-drenched suburbs of Sydney and the graffiti-covered laneways of Melbourne, electric vehicles (EVs) are silently zipping around, charging up in garages, and bringing smiles to the faces of those who voted for Labor’s march toward net zero.

    It is, without doubt, a feel-good story: cleaner air for the user, reduced emissions for the suburb, and tech-savvy signalling to everyone else on the road. But beneath the glossy ads and government incentives lies a darker undercurrent – one that cybersecurity experts, former military leaders, and national security advisors have recently shouted from the rooftops. Continue…

    by Roger Montgomery Posted in Manufacturing.
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    • POSTED IN Manufacturing.
  • Rates reset across the West

    David Buckland
    October 2, 2025

    Central banks across the Western world have been busy recalibrating policy settings, with interest rate cuts a common theme over the past 12-15 months. But the reasons for these moves, and the consequences, vary widely between economies. In the following analysis, I examine the recent cash rate changes across Australia, the U.S., the UK, Europe, Canada, and New Zealand, and place them in the context of each nation’s inflation and unemployment trends. Together, these snapshots highlight the mixed progress in taming inflation, the trade-offs being made, and the signals for both savers and borrowers in the year ahead.

    I have tabled the cash rate movements from the Central Banks of these six Western World economies, accompanied by some brief economic observations. Continue…

    by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Global markets.
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    • POSTED IN Economics, Global markets.
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HIGHER RETURNS AND LOWER RISK? YES, IT’S POSSIBLE WITH PRIVATE CREDIT

Discover how private credit can deliver higher returns with lower risk in our latest whitepaper. Learn how the Aura Core Income Fund’s AA equivalent rated portfolio has consistently outperformed while maintaining transparency and robust risk management. Unlock the insights to achieve superior risk-adjusted returns today. 

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WHITEPAPER

HIGHER RETURNS AND LOWER RISK? YES, IT’S POSSIBLE WITH PRIVATE CREDIT

Discover how private credit can deliver higher returns with lower risk in our latest whitepaper. Learn how the Aura Core Income Fund’s AA equivalent rated portfolio has consistently outperformed while maintaining transparency and robust risk management. Unlock the insights to achieve superior risk-adjusted returns today. 

READ HERE

Having delivered a superior track record of returns and capital preservation, investors also benefit from an emphasis on transparency and communication, and a dedication to long-term relationship.

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