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Gold is king. But are you paying too much?

latest feature

Gold is king. But are you paying too much?

Roger Montgomery
October 16, 2025

In recessions, it is said, ‘cash is king’. We mustn’t be in a recession because the price of gold has trounced cash. 

In the last 10 U.S. trading sessions, six all-time highs have been registered in the gold price. And gold isn’t the only precious metal receiving a bid. Seven all-time highs have been registered in silver, six all-time highs in palladium, and three in platinum. As an aside, there have also been five new all-time highs in the S&P500 and one in Bitcoin. All have been on significant volume.

continue…

In recessions, it is said, ‘cash is king’. We mustn’t be in a recession because the price of gold has continue...

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary.
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Rates reset across the west – six economies, six stories
October 6, 2025

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Rebalancing your portfolio – keeping control when markets run hot
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    Ausbiz – gold fever

    Roger Montgomery
    October 17, 2025

    I joined Juliette Saly from Ausbiz yesterday to discuss the surge in gold buying and why it may be driven more by fear than logic. With queues forming outside bullion dealers, many investors are chasing gold as a hedge against inflation, currency debasement, or geopolitical risk – reasons that have existed for years. Yet, as prices hit record highs and physical gold carries steep costs and little utility, the rush looks more like Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) than sound investing. While gold can’t generate income and its vertical price rise seems unsustainable, those still bullish might consider exchange-traded funds (ETFs) over physical bars, which offer lower friction and better financial sense.
    Catch the episode on Ausbiz here: Are we paying too much for gold?

    Continue…

    by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market Valuation, TV Appearances.
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    • POSTED IN Market Valuation, TV Appearances.
  • MEDIA

    ABC Statewide Drive – Could rising unemployment rates indicate another rate cut?

    Roger Montgomery
    October 17, 2025

    Yesterday on ABC Statewide Drive, I discussed how Australia’s rising unemployment rate has lifted the odds of an interest rate cut – a move that could support valuations even as the economy softens. I explained why investors shouldn’t react to monthly data but instead stay focused on quality businesses and consider diversifying into alternatives like private credit or arbitrage funds to stay balanced in a volatile market.

    Listen in from 1:48:17 on ABC Statewide Drive.

    Continue…

    by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.
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    • POSTED IN Radio.
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    MEDIA

    ABC Newcastle Mornings – Tasty economics

    Roger Montgomery
    October 15, 2025

    I joined Paul Turton on ABC Newcastle Mornings yesterday to discuss how everyday items can shed light on global economics. I explained “doughnut economics,” which looks at balancing human needs with environmental limits, and compared it with purchasing power tools like the Big Mac and Mars Bar Indexes. These offer a quick look at currency values and living costs but are they too simple to capture the full picture?

    Listen in from 37:07 on ABC Newcastle Mornings. Continue…

    by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.
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    • POSTED IN Radio.
    ABC Newcastle media template
  • Polen Capital – large company growth process

    Polen Capital
    October 14, 2025

    Hear from the team at Polen Capital as they outline their disciplined investment process that allows them to filter thousands of companies down to a focused group. By concentrating on businesses with durable advantages and essential products, they aim to build portfolios aligned with their long-standing philosophy of quality and conviction. Continue…

    by Polen Capital Posted in Polen Capital.
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    • POSTED IN Polen Capital.
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  • Rebalancing your portfolio – keeping control when markets run hot

    Roger Montgomery
    October 13, 2025

    In this week’s video insight, I tackle the question I’m most often asked  – is the market going to crash? The truth is, no one knows. While valuations across measures like price-to-earnings and market-cap-to-GVA suggest markets are expensive, they can stay that way for a long time. Rather than selling out, investors should consider rebalancing – trimming profits from equities that have grown beyond their target allocation and reallocating to alternatives such as private credit or arbitrage strategies. This approach helps manage risk and reduce anxiety without trying to time the market’s next move.

    For more information, give David Buckland or Rhodri Taylor a call on (02) 8046 5000. Continue…

    by Roger Montgomery Posted in Video Insights.
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    • POSTED IN Video Insights.
  • Canary in the coal mine? New Zealand joins rate cut trend

    David Buckland
    October 10, 2025

    In the past 14 months, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has cut its cash rate on seven separate occasions by an aggregate 3.0 per cent from 5.5 per cent to 2.5 per cent, as seen in Table 1.

    Table 1. Reserve bank of New Zealand rate cuts Continue…

    by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Property.
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    • POSTED IN Global markets, Market commentary, Property.
  • All parties must end

    Roger Montgomery
    October 9, 2025

    Markets sit at elevated levels, fuelled by optimism around artificial intelligence and the promise of lasting productivity gains. Yet beneath the excitement lies a complex mix of valuations, momentum, and risk – raising important questions about how investors can stay positioned if sentiment shifts.

    Markets are expensive – observations and implications

    There is a conga line of analysts, fund managers and commentators pointing out the extremes many traditional or conventional measures of value have now reached.  From price-to-earnings, price-to-book, and market-cap-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to earnings and dividend yields, the U.S. S&P 500 is in rarified air when it comes to the price investors are willing to pay for exposure to future growth. Continue…

    by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
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    • POSTED IN Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
  • Is artificial intelligence stealing jobs?

    Roger Montgomery
    October 8, 2025

    On November 30, 2022, the world marvelled at the release and conversational prowess of OpenAI’s ChatGPT. What the world might have missed, however, was the subtle shift that began rippling through the U.S. economy.

    What started as a viral tech demo – capable of drafting emails, coding snippets, and even poetry – escalated into a full-blown revolution in large language models (LLMs) and artificial intelligence, now described as the fourth industrial revolution. Continue…

    by Roger Montgomery Posted in Technology & Telecommunications.
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    • POSTED IN Technology & Telecommunications.
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HIGHER RETURNS AND LOWER RISK? YES, IT’S POSSIBLE WITH PRIVATE CREDIT

Discover how private credit can deliver higher returns with lower risk in our latest whitepaper. Learn how the Aura Core Income Fund’s AA equivalent rated portfolio has consistently outperformed while maintaining transparency and robust risk management. Unlock the insights to achieve superior risk-adjusted returns today. 

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WHITEPAPER

HIGHER RETURNS AND LOWER RISK? YES, IT’S POSSIBLE WITH PRIVATE CREDIT

Discover how private credit can deliver higher returns with lower risk in our latest whitepaper. Learn how the Aura Core Income Fund’s AA equivalent rated portfolio has consistently outperformed while maintaining transparency and robust risk management. Unlock the insights to achieve superior risk-adjusted returns today. 

READ HERE

Having delivered a superior track record of returns and capital preservation, investors also benefit from an emphasis on transparency and communication, and a dedication to long-term relationship.

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