Hear from the team at Polen Capital as they outline their disciplined investment process that allows them to filter thousands of companies down to a focused group. By concentrating on businesses with durable advantages and essential products, they aim to build portfolios aligned with their long-standing philosophy of quality and conviction. Continue…

by Polen Capital Posted in Polen Capital.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Polen Capital.

In this week’s video insight, I tackle the question I’m most often asked  – is the market going to crash? The truth is, no one knows. While valuations across measures like price-to-earnings and market-cap-to-GVA suggest markets are expensive, they can stay that way for a long time. Rather than selling out, investors should consider rebalancing – trimming profits from equities that have grown beyond their target allocation and reallocating to alternatives such as private credit or arbitrage strategies. This approach helps manage risk and reduce anxiety without trying to time the market’s next move.

For more information, give David Buckland or Rhodri Taylor a call on (02) 8046 5000. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Video Insights.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Video Insights.

In the past 14 months, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has cut its cash rate on seven separate occasions by an aggregate 3.0 per cent from 5.5 per cent to 2.5 per cent, as seen in Table 1.

Table 1. Reserve bank of New Zealand rate cuts Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Property.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Global markets, Market commentary, Property.

On November 30, 2022, the world marvelled at the release and conversational prowess of OpenAI’s ChatGPT. What the world might have missed, however, was the subtle shift that began rippling through the U.S. economy.

What started as a viral tech demo – capable of drafting emails, coding snippets, and even poetry – escalated into a full-blown revolution in large language models (LLMs) and artificial intelligence, now described as the fourth industrial revolution. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Technology & Telecommunications.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Technology & Telecommunications.

Yesterday I joined Jess McGuire on ABC’s Statewide Drive to talk about the artificial intelligence (AI) boom and what it means for investors. While AI may well transform industries and benefit consumers, I cautioned that the rush into AI stocks has pushed valuations to bubble-like levels, where prices assume every company will succeed – something history tells us is impossible. High valuations typically mean lower future returns, and right now U.S. stocks are at record high prices. For investors, particularly those nearing retirement, my advice was simple: regularly rebalance portfolios by trimming back exposure to overheated assets and reallocating to alternatives such as private credit, small company funds, or cash — rather than panic selling — to stay defensive while still positioned for long-term growth. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.

Yesterday on Ausbiz with Juliette Saly, I discussed why record-high markets may carry more risks than opportunities. While the artificial intelligence (AI) boom has powered enthusiasm, I cautioned that valuations across the broader market are now at unprecedented levels, with all companies effectively being priced as winners – something history shows is unsustainable. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.

In the sun-drenched suburbs of Sydney and the graffiti-covered laneways of Melbourne, electric vehicles (EVs) are silently zipping around, charging up in garages, and bringing smiles to the faces of those who voted for Labor’s march toward net zero.

It is, without doubt, a feel-good story: cleaner air for the user, reduced emissions for the suburb, and tech-savvy signalling to everyone else on the road. But beneath the glossy ads and government incentives lies a darker undercurrent – one that cybersecurity experts, former military leaders, and national security advisors have recently shouted from the rooftops. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Manufacturing.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Manufacturing.

Central banks across the Western world have been busy recalibrating policy settings, with interest rate cuts a common theme over the past 12-15 months. But the reasons for these moves, and the consequences, vary widely between economies. In the following analysis, I examine the recent cash rate changes across Australia, the U.S., the UK, Europe, Canada, and New Zealand, and place them in the context of each nation’s inflation and unemployment trends. Together, these snapshots highlight the mixed progress in taming inflation, the trade-offs being made, and the signals for both savers and borrowers in the year ahead.

I have tabled the cash rate movements from the Central Banks of these six Western World economies, accompanied by some brief economic observations. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Global markets.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Global markets.